Difference between revisions of "Future of the Korean Peninsula in 2015"

From ScenarioThinking
Jump to navigation Jump to search
 
(80 intermediate revisions by 12 users not shown)
Line 16: Line 16:
   BETTER - Anti-Americanism in Korea
   BETTER - Anti-Americanism in Korea
   BEST - Increase of Anti-Americanism in Korea
   BEST - Increase of Anti-Americanism in Korea
<br>
<br>
Please develop the [[Driving Forces]] not just list them.  They comprise 35% of your grade as listed below.
<br>


====Political====
====Political====
*The Sino-U.S. rivalry
*[[The Korean War II due to Nuke issue]] - Group 2


*Pax Americana
*[[The Sino-U.S. rivalry in the northeast Asia after the cold war]] - Group 2


*Nationalism
*[[Increasing influence of US polices on South Korea polices]] - Group 4


*Incresing influence of US polices on South Korea polices - Group 4
*[[Increasing importance of North Korea situation to South Korea]] - Group 4


*Incresing importance of North Korea situation to South Korea - Group 4
*[[Increasing possibility of North Korea's open through Kaesung complex]] - Group 4


*continuation of Kim Jung Il's attempt to sustain his regime - Group 1
*[[Increase in notion of pax-Americana - america's sole pre-eminence]] - Group 1


*the nature of divided penninsula between DPRK and ROK - Group 1
*[[The nature of divided penninsula between North and South Korea]] - Group 1


*historical experience of Japan's colonization and ambition - Group 1
*[[Continuation of Kim Jung Il's attempt to sustain his regime]] - Group 1


*creation of Korea-US tight relationship since Korean war - Group 1
*[[Historical experience of Japan's colonization and ambition]] - Group 1


*increase in notion of pax-americana - america's sole pre-eminence - Group 1
*[[Creation of Korea-US tight relationship since Korean war]] - Group 1
 
 
*[[Beijing Olympic - Turning point for China to become a super power country - Increasing influence on Korea peninsula]] - Group 3
 
*[[South Korea Sunshine policy]] - Group 3
 
*[[6-Party-Talk ends up with good results soon]] - Group 3
 
*[[Disaccord between China and US]] - Group 3
 
*[[Devastated economics of North Korea]] - Group 3
 
*[[Instable Dictator Kim Jung Il]] - Group 3


====Economic====
====Economic====


*Globalization
*[[The rise of Chinese economy]] - Group 2


*Increasing dependency of S.K economy on exporting - Group 4
*[[Economic integration among Asian Countries]] - Group 2


* More opening of S.K economy to the world - Group 4
*[[Korea depression -Group 2]]


* Europe and Japan began to compete effectively with the U.S - Group 2
* [[The US trade deficit will increase in the future]]- Group 2


* As North Korea meets the limits of economice development they try to accept inter-korean Economic Cooperation - Group 2
* [[Korea, North Korea inter-Korea economic cooperation will increase in the future]] - Group 2


* The prolonged economic slump has discouraged people from moving to other residential areas - Group 2
*[[More opening of South Korean economy to the world - Group 4]]


*increase in ROK's opening of financial capital market since IMF - Group 1
*[[increasing globalization of Korean economy- Group 1]]


*increasing globalization of ROK's economy - Group 1
*[[no source of oil in korea- Group 1]]


*shortage of land in korean penninsula - Group 1
*[[Economic Alignment wiht North Korea - Group 3]]
 
*[[FTA between China, Japan and Korea - Group 3]]


====Societal====
====Societal====


*Increasing Women's right in South Korea - Group 4
*[[Increasing Women's rights in South Korea]] - Group 4


*South Korea society is going to western style demographic population - Group 4
*[[South Korea society is moving toward a western style demographic population]] - Group 4


*increase in demand of ROK's sophisticated consumer - Group 1
*[[Seoul's becoming of mega city - Group 1]]


*Seoul's becoming of mega city - Group 1
*[[Decrease in Confucian value in South Korea]] - Group 1
 
====Technological====


*decrease in confucius value in ROK - Group 1
*[[Increase in availability of cheap broadband Internet in South Korea - Group 1]]


====Technological====
====Environmental====
*South Korea's tech competence is on the high skilled HR and high applied science - Group 4
*[[Shortage of natural resources in this world - Group 2]]


*South Korea's tech competence is on the IT & digital industry - Group 4
*[[shortage of land in korean penninsula - Group 1]]


*increase in availability of cheap broadband internet in ROK - Group 1
===Scenarios===
Here is our scenarios.


====Environmental====
[[Korea Depression]] - Group 2


*Materialism
[[6 Party talk was successful.]] - Group 4


*Increasing relation between S.K economey and environmental issue - Group 4
[[New beginning]]- Group 3


*shortage of land in korean penninsula - Group 1
[[More of the same - Group 1]]





Latest revision as of 07:55, 2 June 2005

To start our scenario process we shall look at the scope of the uncertainties, define our research questions and answer them for our next class on 26 May.

Note: A good source is also the CIA's conference on the future of North Korea done in 2001. the report is visible here

Driving Forces

Here we will list Driving Forces that are specific to the process to understand the future of the Korean peninsula in 2015+

Please remember to be specific and indicate movement (whether it is growing or declining). For Example:

 BAD - Anti-Americanism
 BETTER - Anti-Americanism in Korea
 BEST - Increase of Anti-Americanism in Korea



Please develop the Driving Forces not just list them. They comprise 35% of your grade as listed below.

Political


Economic

Societal

Technological

Environmental

Scenarios

Here is our scenarios.

Korea Depression - Group 2

6 Party talk was successful. - Group 4

New beginning- Group 3

More of the same - Group 1







As a reference you can look at example uncertainties,research questions, driving forces and scenarios developed on a WIKI:

LIACS Scenarios 2005

Leiden University ICT in Business Post Graduate course scenarios.

The Future of WiFi
WiFi is the name coined for a networking standard using the IEEE 802.11 protocol to transmit data wirelessly using an unlicenced, and therefore free, frequency range. Wireless working has become an ideal picture of the digital world of tomorrow. But what will be the influence on industries and governments? How will Society and its perception of technology change? And, finally, what will be happen in the next five years in the area of WiFi?

The Future of GRID computing
Group: grid computing is a form of networking that harnesses unused processing cycles of all computers in a network for solving problems too intensive for any stand-alone machine. What will be driving force for its future development? How would this future perspective influence both commercial & industrial market in the next 10 years?

The Future of the Global Village in 2020
Group: The concept of "Global Village" has been brought forward since 1962. More than 30 years have passed. Will this idea come true in the future 15 years? Could the large amount of changes that recently happened facilitate the steps of the consolidation?

The Future of Software Development
Anyone will agree that software development in general is going to change.
But how? And what will be the consequences?

The Future of the Internet in China
With the quick technology development and the joining to the WTO, China faces both an opportunity and a challenge in the Internet industry. So what will the development of internet in China be in the coming 10 years?

The Future of Console Based Games
The gaming industry is changing. A heavy war is going on between the big players to become the market leader. This influences the future of the console based games. This heavy competition speed up changes. But how will this end? Will the concept of console based games remain the same or will this competition bring other alternitives which give the concept of console game another meaning?