ASSIST 2005 Group 1 Uncertainties

From ScenarioThinking
Jump to navigation Jump to search

Group 1. Ji-Hoon,Dokyun, Tiger, Rose uncertainty

great, nice to see you are using the page, how is it going with your research?

it's going ok...I just hope that topics we found do not end up redundant.

looks interesting, but without the other groups adding their work to the wiki it is hard to tell;-)

Here are the topics our group chose :

(1) 44 possible uncertainties

1. population of korea / the birth rate? growing population of old people, imbalance of gender ratio

2. domestic university

3. north korea' nuke

4. us-japan relation

5. dockdo problem

6. US army in korea

7. anti-americanism

8. US's growing deficit

9. Korea's real estate-price

10. increasing amount of garbage, limited area to dispose of

11. increasing confrontation in korean society

conservative/liberal, generation gap, the rich/the poor

12. NK's sudden collapse

13. NK's unification-possible conflict

14. Korean-China relationship

15. Japan's right wing/ armament

16. stem cell-Dr. Whang

17. china-taiwan relationship

18. IT infra-WAN network, currency

19. unification church - new-born cult religion

20. seoul vs. suburb conflict

21. korean's education system

22. theme park

23. "korean wave"-what if it disappear, influence of korean culture 24. the future of korean movie

25. labor union

26. the future of Korean IT industry (portals, game industry...)

27. domestic problem(family)

28. korean's welfare policy(health care)

29. japan's entrance to US security council

30. FTA

31. transportation(alternative energy ? )

32. oil shortage

33. Samsung's future

34. plastic surgery

35. increasing international marriage and its consequence (racial mix)

36. impact of DMB

37. korean men's/women's status in korea

38. unemployment

39. increasing online media /

40. political party-regime change in korean politics

41. future of korean soccer

42. home network technology

43. Uniformed Currency ex) AU as in EU

44. ROK - India Relationship

(2) 20 tentative questions to be answered - selected from 44 uncertainties

1. How would north Korea’s sudden collapse affect south korea?


2. How would unification affect Korean peninsula? What are some f possible conflicts?


3. How would current Dockdo problem/distortion of history affect Korea’s relationship with Japan?



4. Could Japan's right wing movement / armament pose threat to south Korea?


5. What could be the future of Korea-China relationship?


6. what would the be impact of the development of stem cell on Korean society?

7.What would be the future of Korean movie industry?

8.what would be the impact of DMB in Korean society?

9. what would be the impact of Kyoto protocol ( reduction of the amount of Co2 emission) on korean economy?

10.How would Korean IT infra (network) affect our lives (home) ?

11. Data show that by 2050, population of elderly will take up to 40% of the entire population. Consequently, Korean society will be composed of the largest old population among OECD countries. The phenomenon of aging society is caused by rapid advancement of bio-chemical and medical industries/technologies and low fertility. Surely, such change in social demography will influence every corner of Korean society. Please establish a scenario in terms of Korean society’s future demography (the aging society).

12. The number of Korean youngsters leaving Korea to seek for better education is exponentially increasing every year even to a point that the foreign spending on education abroad contributes significantly to the increase in government deficit. If the trend continues, Korea’s future may suffer from the shortage of educated human resources. What are the fundamental problems of Korean education system? And how will it be improved to meet the standard and needs of Korean parents?

13.Korean society has been greatly influenced by Confucius values which, among many others, pursue gender differences. The deeply embedded notion of gender inequality established different gender status in Korea. However, as Western values were introduced, gender role and status have gradually changed. With increasing importance of female role in society, one may predict that Korean society in 10 years will be a totally opposite situation compared to the 1990s. Please predict the future of Korean society in terms of male/female status. http://opinion/200505/kt2005051816021654050.htm




14.Korea boasts the highest rate of high-speed internet use among OECD countries. Such advancement in internet benefits Korea in many ways; however, it has also shown numerous negative aspects. One of the phenomenons is a rapid spread of online media which is gradually replacing offline media. Perhaps in 10 years, Korean society will face too much dependence in online media. Please build a scenario in terms of online media dependency.

15. Current Korean politics show a conflict between left and right wing parties. Under President Noh Moo-Hyun’s administration, Korean political seemed more skewed to the left. In 2007, there will be a presidential election, and everybody expects another political battle between the left and right wing parties. Please predict Korea’s political situation in 2015 considering numerous national and international issues.



16.How is the future of Korean IT industry going?

17.The effect of unemployment rates in Korea?

18.The effect of Anti-Americanism?

19.Economic effects of a Korea-Japan FTA?

20.How much effect of Kyoto protocol to the Korea?

(3)Driving Forces

1. increase in demand of ROK's sophisticated consumer

2. increase in ROK's opening of financial capital market since IMF

3. the nature of divided penninsula between DPRK and ROK

4. increase in notion of pax-americana - america's sole pre-eminence

5. increase in availability of cheap broadband internet in ROK

6. absence of raw material(oil)-no oil in ROK

7. shortage of land in korean penninsula .

8. increasing globalization of ROK's economy

9. Seoul's becoming of mega city .

10. historical experience of Japan's colonization and ambition .

11. continuation of Kim Jung Il's attempt to sustain his regime

12. decrease in confucius value in ROK

13. existance of Korea-US tight relationship since Korean war .