Difference between revisions of "Future of Russia in 2030"

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=INTRODUCTION=
=INTRODUCTION=
hi, i put some topic i can think now under the driving forces. I only did one economic and one environmental forces now. i am not quite sure the way it is. Andrei, i paste your work under the sub headline. Chihhou
[[Image:russia_flg.gif|thumb|The Flag of Russia Federation|220px]]
[[Image:russamap.gif|thumb|Russia Map|220px]]
[[Image:georgia-russia conflict.jpg|thumb|Russia Georgia conflict|220px]]
By asking questions about present day Russia and looking at trends, we aim to develop  three plausible but unconventional scenarios about Russia's future in 2030.


=GROUP MEMBERS=
=GROUP MEMBERS=
[[User:Ankit  Anand|Ankit  Anand]]<br>
[[User:Chih-Hou Chen|Chih-Hou Chen]]<br>
[[User:Chih-Hou Chen|Chih-Hou Chen]]<br>
[[User:Andrei Grigorian|Andrei Grigorian]]<br>
[[User:Andrei Grigorian|Andrei Grigorian]]<br>
Line 11: Line 13:
=RESEARCH QUESTIONS=
=RESEARCH QUESTIONS=


Economic  
#[[Economic Questions]]
 
#[[Political Questions]]
1. What are competitive advantages of Russia as a country?
#[[Policy]]
 
#[[Technological Questions]]
2. Except for the nature resources, what are others strengths of the country?
#[[Foreign Investment Questions]]
 
#[[Racism in Russia]]
3. How does Russia position itself as a country? Eg: IT cluster/ nature resources
#[[Demographics]]
 
#[[Miscellaneous]]
4. For Russia, is the energy a political tool?
 
5. Now Russia also aims at technology development, is it a strategic goal?
 
6. How many resources are there left in Russia (current estimates)
 
7. What percentage of GDP from Russian exports goes towards infrastructure and development? Where is it invested?
 
8. What does the Russian federal government spend money on?  What are the spending priorities?
 
9. Has there been any infrastructure and development in rural Russia? Has the life improved?
 
10. Why is Moscow one of the most expensive cities in the world?
 
11. Will Russia’s dependency on oil bring about the same collapse as occurred in Soviet Union?
 
12. Is there a free market system operating in Russia?
 
13. What is the degree of state control of business?
 
14. What is the corruption picture? What effects does corruption have on the development of countries in general and Russia in particular?
 
15. If there was no oil tomorrow, how could Russia compete?
 
16. What other promising sectors are developing in Russia? If any at all?
 
17. Besides oil, gas, army, what is the other big things for Russia?
 
18. How to the government spend the oil money?
 
19. What is the most important aspect of government spending? Education, Healthcare, aged population?
 
20. Will there be greater disparity between the wealthy and poor?
 
 
Trade and Foreign investment
 
23. For each of the major natural resource exports from Russia, what proportion of the global supply is controlled by Russia?
 
24. What is the level of foreign investment in Russia?  Which industries receive foreign investment?
 
25. What are Russia’s biggest imports?
 
26. Who are Russia’s biggest trading partners?
 
 
Political
 
1. The wars happened between Russia and its neighbors (Georgia/ Russia)
 
2. Does Medvedev have any control over the government?
 
3. Is Putin really behind everything that goes on in Russian politics at the moment?
 
4. Why does Russian want to control Chechnya?
 
5. Look at what the relationship is with Ramzan Kadyrov.
 
6. What was behind the conflict in Georgia?
 
7. Is Russia going to continue this policy towards its regional neighbours?
 
8. What happened in Ukraine?
 
9. Why is Russia paranoid about former Soviet bloc countries being absorbed into the E.U?
 
10. What is Russia’s official and unofficial stance on relationship with EU, US, China, India, Brazil?
 
11. What is Russia’s strategic intentions?
 
12. Remain local power and build up a buffer?
 
13. Does Russia want to see a situation similar to USSR? Regain its lost power?
 
15. What role do Muslims play in Russian history – Kazan (example of autonomous republic)
 
16. Terrorism – just a tool for Russia to make more draconian laws? (US parallel)
 
17. Role of terrorism on development in Russia
 
18. Role of Stalin and personality cult today?
 
19. Putin’s image – personality cult?
 
20. Opposition to Putin/Medvedev – does it exist?
 
21. What has happened to opposition in the past?
 
22. Abramovich – What is his relationship with politicians and Putin in particular?
 
23. What is the foreign policy of Russia regards to China, US, EU?
 
24. Is Russia an autocracy?
 
25. What is the role of the FSB, does the governmet have control over them?
 
26.    How many ex-KGB employees are currently serving in a public role?
 
27.    How likely is a change in constitution?
 
28.    Will Putin be re-elected as President?
 
29.    How much influence does Russia have over its former satellites?  What is the source of that influence?
 
30.    How high is the level of corruption in Russia?  Is it institutionalized?
 
Racism in Russia:
 
27. Does it play a role in politics? If so, what?
 
28. Racism in Russia – how advanced is it?
 
29. How do you explain resurgence of fascism in a country which fought against Nazism?
 
Technology
 
1. What is the science and technology focus for Russia, military weapons?
 
2. Does Russia have any globally recognized technology clusters?  Centers of research excellence?
 
3. Does Russia have any federal initiatives to develop/import technologies?
 
Demographics
 
5. What is the rate of alcoholism in Russia?
 
6. Death rate?
 
7. Is the population getting smaller?
 
8. What impact will this have on the country?
 
9. Role of Muslim population in Russia?
 
10. Is the population of Russia getting less?
 
11. Immigration policy? Laws to do with immigration.
 
12. What is the median age of Russia?
 
13. Is there net immigration to Russia?  Net emigration from Russia?  Where to?  Or where from?
 
14. What is the level of internet usage/penetration in Russia?
 
 
Miscellaneous  
 
1. Is Russia becoming a superpower in 2030?
 
4. What do Russian people most need in 2030? Better Income, health, or other?
 
5. How highly ranked are Russian educational institutions? 
 
6. How much interaction/contact do Russian researchers/students have with foreign researchers/students?
 
=LINKS=
Putin's Russia: past imperfect, future uncertain
By Dale Roy Herspring
http://books.google.nl/books?hl=nl&lr=&id=4Y9_fYt9iagC&oi=fnd&pg=PR11&dq=Russia+future&ots=nvGBWNl5X6&sig=sK9ZU5Q7eIwYv1JTDj3GXtIfeSc#v=onepage&q=&f=false
 
Russia: continuity and change
By Gerald Hinteregger, Hans-Georg Heinrich, Hans-Georg Heinrich (Univ.-Doz. Dr.)
http://books.google.nl/books?id=1YGJDLpLYWEC&printsec=frontcover&dq=Russia+future&lr=&source=gbs_similarbooks_s&cad=1#v=onepage&q=Russia%20future&f=false
 
Website*****
http://www.plausiblefutures.com/
Just type Russia in as a keyword and it will give any related news
 
Chances for a Reset in Russian Politics "Russia in Global Affairs". № 2, April - June 2009
By Dmitry Badovsky
http://eng.globalaffairs.ru/numbers/27/1274.html
 
=REFERENCE=
http://eng.globalaffairs.ru/    A journal on foreign affairs and international relations
 
http://www.weforum.org/pdf/GCR09/GCR20092010fullreport.pdf
2009-2010 the Global Competitive Report, take a look at pg.210-pg211
 
https://www.cia.gov/library/publications/the-world-factbook/geos/rs.html


=DRIVING FORCES=
=DRIVING FORCES=


===Political Driving Forces==
===Political Driving Forces===
#[[The increment  degree of corruption and bureaucracy of Government ]]
#[[Break down in Russo-Chinese relations ]]
#[[The trend of geopolitics--integration to EU ]]
#[[Increasing instability in the Caucasus ]]
#[[Improved the relation with the US]]
#[[Increase/Decrease of individual and democratic rights and freedoms]]
#[[Increase/Decrease in the rule of law]]


===Societal Driving Forces==
===Societal Driving Forces===
# [[Decline of the Russian population]]
# [[Decline of the Russian population]]
# [[The wider gap between poor and rich]]


=== Environmental Driving Forces ===
=== Environmental Driving Forces ===
# [[Enforcement of Environmental policy in Russia]]
# [[Enforcement of Environmental policy in Russia]]
# [[Increasing need to clean energy]]


=== Economic Driving Forces ===
=== Economic Driving Forces ===
# [[Increasing value of Nature Resource (Oil, Natural Gas) in Russia]]
# [[Increasing value of Nature Resource (Oil, Natural Gas) in Russia]]
# [[The Rise of BRIC Economies]]
# [[The Rise of BRIC Economies]]
# [[Poor Business Climate]]
# [[The post-Kyoto Economy of Russia]]


=== Technological Driving Forces ===
=== Technological Driving Forces ===


=DIAGRAMS=
# [[The Increasing Influence of the Internet]]
 
# [[Russia's Investment in Military Technology]]
===SCENARIOS===
 
# [[1. Axis: Greater Freedom vs Greater Authority and State Control]]
One Possible Axis of a Driving Force relating to individual and democratic freedoms:
 
 
One extreme of the axis defined by: Greater Individual Freedom, Greater Democratic Freedom and participation, Greater Freedom of Expression
 


Scenarios at this end of the axis will exhibit:
=System DIAGRAMS=
[[Image:System_diagram2.jpg|480px]]


- Utilization of natural resources for the benefit of the population
=Inference Matrix=
[http://spreadsheets.google.com/ccc?key=0Auifd1C_Qhl_dFB4NlQtRFBBb2Fsd1lOM0JzYUhkSWc&hl=en Russia Scenario inference Matrix]


- Innovation
=Scenario trees=
[[Image:russiatree2.jpg|600px|Scenario Tree for the Future of Russia]]


- Entrepreneurship
=INTERVIEWS=


- Greater recognition minority views
# [[Interview 1 : Senior Executive of large company operating in Russia]]
# [[Interview 2 : Bobo Lo, Senior Research Fellow at Centre for European Reform: London]]
# [[Interview/reference 3: Conversation with Dmitry Medvedev. Answers to questions from Director of News Programmes at Russia's Channel One Kirill Kleimenov,October 11, 2009]]


- More dissent
=SCENARIOS=


- Greater difficulty reaching consensus
#'''[[Black Gold's Curse:Crumbling Empire]]'''<br>
#'''[[Putin: Return of the Czar]]'''<br>
#'''[[Green Shoots]]'''<br>


- More public deliberation and therefore relatively slow implementation of national policies
=REFERENCES=


- Emphasis of public benefit relative to national strategic interest
<b>Links</b>


e.g. less effectiveness in leveraging resources for national strategic interest; greater use of natural resources for public benefit
1.[http://eng.globalaffairs.ru/  A journal on foreign affairs and international relations]<br> 


e.g. greater difficulty in implementing difficult/controversial/unpopular policies
2.[http://www.weforum.org/pdf/GCR09/GCR20092010fullreport.pdf 2009-2010 the Global Competitive Report, take a look at pg.210-pg211]<br>


3.[https://www.cia.gov/library/publications/the-world-factbook/geos/rs.html Russia world factbook]<br>


The other extreme of the axis defined by: Lack of Individual Freedom, Non-Democratic, less democratic participation, Censorship
4.[http://www.weforum.org/en/initiatives/Scenarios/RussiaScenarios/index.htm Russia scenarios web reference 2025]<br>


5.[http://books.google.nl/books?hl=nl&lr=&id=4Y9_fYt9iagC&oi=fnd&pg=PR11&dq=Russia+future&ots=nvGBWNl5X6&sig=sK9ZU5Q7eIwYv1JTDj3GXtIfeSc#v=onepage&q=&f=false Putin's Russia: past imperfect, future uncertain, Dale Roy Herspring]<br>


Scenarios at this end of the axis will exhibit:
6.[http://books.google.nl/books?id=1YGJDLpLYWEC&printsec=frontcover&dq=Russia+future&lr=&source=gbs_similarbooks_s&cad=1#v=onepage&q=Russia%20future&f=false Russia: continuity and change By Gerald Hinteregger, Hans-Georg Heinrich, Hans-Georg Heinrich]


7.[http://www.plausiblefutures.com/ just type Russia in as a keyword and it will give any related news]<br>


- Utilization of natural resources for the benefit of the an elite
8.[http://eng.globalaffairs.ru/numbers/27/1274.html/ Chances for a Reset in Russian Politics "Russia in Global Affairs". No 2, April - June 2009 By Dmitry Badovsky]


- Less innovation
9.[http://www.mckinseyquarterly.com/Economic_Studies/Country_Reports/How_Russia_could_be_more_productive_2435 How Russia could be more productive, McKinsey Quarterly]<br>


- Less entrepreneurship
10.[http://www.iiasa.ac.at/ International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA)]<br>


- Less recognition of minority views
11.[http://www.gapminder.org/ Gapminder]<br>


- Less toleration of dissent
12.[http://www.jpri.org/publications/workingpapers/wp62.html/ JPRI Working Paper No. 62: November 1999 The Chinese Diaspora, Mongolia and the Sino-Russian Frontier, by Robert Bedeski]<br>


- Greater ease in reaching consensus
13.[http://www.ted.com/talks/parag_khanna_maps_the_future_of_countries.html/TED.com: Parag Khanna maps the future of countries]<br>


- Less public deliberation and therefore relatively quick implementation of national policies
14.[http://eng.kremlin.ru// President of Russia official website]<br>


- Emphasis of national strategic interest relative to public benefit
15.[http://www.minfin.ru/en/// Russia Ministry of Finance]<br>


e.g. greater effectiveness in leveraging resources for national strategic interest; less use of natural resources for public benefit


e.g. greater ease in implementing difficult/controversial/unpopular policies


# [[2. Scenario 2]]
<b>Videos</b>
# [[3. Scenario 3]]
*[http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hZMvwUFkvF0 Davo Open Forum 2008--Russia Geopolitical Ambitions]
# [[4. Scenario 4]]
*[http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=x5PWjcR4wzI Davo Annual meeting 2007--Modern Russia(government)]
*[http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=86rP7TZdzCM Davo Annual meeting 2007--Modern Russia(Business)]
*[http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=EfZF5TsXHeU Davo Open Forum 2007--Managing access to Oil]
*[http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7LAhmCOvvHU Russia CEO rundtable--Dmitry Medvedev]

Latest revision as of 18:20, 17 October 2009

INTRODUCTION

The Flag of Russia Federation
Russia Map
Russia Georgia conflict

By asking questions about present day Russia and looking at trends, we aim to develop three plausible but unconventional scenarios about Russia's future in 2030.

GROUP MEMBERS

Chih-Hou Chen
Andrei Grigorian
Mark Pospisilik
Elsa Sheng

RESEARCH QUESTIONS

  1. Economic Questions
  2. Political Questions
  3. Policy
  4. Technological Questions
  5. Foreign Investment Questions
  6. Racism in Russia
  7. Demographics
  8. Miscellaneous

DRIVING FORCES

Political Driving Forces

  1. Break down in Russo-Chinese relations
  2. Increasing instability in the Caucasus
  3. Improved the relation with the US
  4. Increase/Decrease of individual and democratic rights and freedoms
  5. Increase/Decrease in the rule of law

Societal Driving Forces

  1. Decline of the Russian population

Environmental Driving Forces

  1. Enforcement of Environmental policy in Russia

Economic Driving Forces

  1. Increasing value of Nature Resource (Oil, Natural Gas) in Russia
  2. The Rise of BRIC Economies
  3. Poor Business Climate
  4. The post-Kyoto Economy of Russia

Technological Driving Forces

  1. The Increasing Influence of the Internet
  2. Russia's Investment in Military Technology

System DIAGRAMS

System diagram2.jpg

Inference Matrix

Russia Scenario inference Matrix

Scenario trees

Scenario Tree for the Future of Russia

INTERVIEWS

  1. Interview 1 : Senior Executive of large company operating in Russia
  2. Interview 2 : Bobo Lo, Senior Research Fellow at Centre for European Reform: London
  3. Interview/reference 3: Conversation with Dmitry Medvedev. Answers to questions from Director of News Programmes at Russia's Channel One Kirill Kleimenov,October 11, 2009

SCENARIOS

  1. Black Gold's Curse:Crumbling Empire
  2. Putin: Return of the Czar
  3. Green Shoots

REFERENCES

Links

1.A journal on foreign affairs and international relations

2.2009-2010 the Global Competitive Report, take a look at pg.210-pg211

3.Russia world factbook

4.Russia scenarios web reference 2025

5.Putin's Russia: past imperfect, future uncertain, Dale Roy Herspring

6.Russia: continuity and change By Gerald Hinteregger, Hans-Georg Heinrich, Hans-Georg Heinrich

7.just type Russia in as a keyword and it will give any related news

8.Chances for a Reset in Russian Politics "Russia in Global Affairs". No 2, April - June 2009 By Dmitry Badovsky

9.How Russia could be more productive, McKinsey Quarterly

10.International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA)

11.Gapminder

12.JPRI Working Paper No. 62: November 1999 The Chinese Diaspora, Mongolia and the Sino-Russian Frontier, by Robert Bedeski

13.Parag Khanna maps the future of countries

14.President of Russia official website

15.Russia Ministry of Finance


Videos

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