Increasing instability in the Caucasus

Background

Chechnya is a region in the Northern Caucasus which has been in almost constant battle against foreign rule since the 15th century. Eventually the Chechens converted to Islam and tensions began to die down with the Turks; however conflicts with their Christian neighbours, the Georgians and the Cossacks, as well as with their Buddhist Kalmyks neighbours intensified. The Russian Terek Cossack Host was secretly established in Chechnya in 1577 by free Cossacks resettled from the Volga to the Terek River.

The current resistance to Russian rule has its roots in the late 18th century (1785–1791), a period when Russia expanded into territories formerly under the dominion of Turkey and Persia under Mansur Ushurma—a Chechen Naqshbandi (Sufi) Sheikh—with wavering support from other North Caucasian tribes. Mansur hoped to establish a Transcaucasus Islamic state under shari'a law, but was unable to do so because of Russian resistance and opposition from many Chechens (many of whom had not been converted to Islam at the time). Its banner was again picked up by the Avar Imam Shamil, who fought against the Russians from 1834 until 1859.

Lead up to current crisis

With the impending collapse of the Soviet Union in 1991, an independence movement, initially known as the Chechen National Congress, was formed and led by ex-Soviet Air Force general and new Chechen President Dzhokhar Dudayev. This movement was ultimately opposed by Boris Yeltsin's Russian Federation, which first argued that Chechnya had not been an independent entity within the Soviet Union—as the Baltic, Central Asian, and other Caucasian States had—but was part of the Russian Soviet Federative Socialist Republic and hence did not have a right under the Soviet constitution to secede; second, that other republics of Russia, such as Tatarstan, would consider seceding from the Russian Federation if Chechnya were granted that right; and third, that Chechnya was a major hub in the oil infrastructure of the Federation and hence its secession would hurt the country's economy and energy access.

In the ensuing decade, the territory was locked in an ongoing struggle between various factions, usually fighting unconventionally and forgoing the position held by the several successive Russian governments through the current administration. Various demographic factors including religious ones have continued to keep the area in a near constant state of war.

First Chechen War

The First Chechen War occurred in a two year period lasting from 1994 to 1996, when Russian forces attempted to stop Chechnya from seceding. Despite overwhelming manpower, weaponry and air support, the Russian forces were unable to establish effective control over the mountainous area due to many successful Chechen guerrilla raids. The Budyonnovsk hospital hostage crisis in 1995 shocked the Russian public and discredited Chechen guerrillas. Widespread demoralization of the Russian forces in the area and a successful offensive on Grozny by Chechen independantist forces lead by Aslan Maskhadov prompted Russian President Boris Yeltsin to declare a ceasefire in 1996 and sign a peace treaty a year later.

The war was disastrous for both sides. Most estimates give figures of between 3,500 and 7,500 Russian military dead, between 3,000 and 15,000 Chechen militants dead, and no fewer than 35,000 civilian deaths—a total of at least 41,500 dead. Others have cited figures in the range of 80,000 to 100,000.

Second Chechen War

After the war, parliamentary and presidential elections took place in January 1997 in Chechnya and brought to power new President Aslan Maskhadov, chief of staff and prime minister in the Chechen coalition government, for a five-year term. Maskhadov sought to maintain Chechen sovereignty while pressing Moscow to help rebuild the republic, whose formal economy and infrastructure were virtually destroyed. Russia continued to send money for the rehabilitation of the republic; it also provided pensions and funds for schools and hospitals. Most of these funds were taken by Chechen authorities and divided between favoured warlords. Nearly half a million people (40% of Chechnya's prewar population) have been internally displaced and lived in refugee camps or overcrowded villages. The economy was destroyed. Two Russian brigades were permanently stationed in Chechnya.

In lieu of the devastated economic structure, kidnapping emerged as the principal source of income countrywide, procuring over $200 million during the three year independence of the chaotic fledgling state,[15] although victims were rarely killed. In 1998, 176 people were kidnapped, 90 of whom were released, according to official accounts. President Maskhadov started a major campaign against hostage-takers, and on October 25, 1998, Shadid Bargishev, Chechnya's top anti-kidnapping official, was killed in a remote-controlled car bombing. Bargishev's colleagues then insisted they would not be intimidated by the attack and would go ahead with their offensive. Political violence and religious extremism, blamed on "Wahhabism", was rife. In 1998, Grozny authorities declared a state of emergency. Tensions led to open clashes between the Chechen National Guard and Islamist militants, such as the July 1998 confrontation in Gudermes.

In August 1999, the IIPB began an unsuccessful incursion into the neighbouring Russian republic of Dagestan in favor of the Shura of Dagestan who sought independence from Russia. In September, a series of apartment bombings took place in several Russian cities, including Moscow, which were blamed on the Chechens. In response, after a prolonged air campaign of retaliatory strikes against the Ichkerian regime, a ground offensive began in October 1999 which marked the beginning of the Second Chechen War. Much better organized and planned than the first Chechen War, the military actions by the Russian Federal forces enabled them to re-establish control over most regions. After the re-capture of Grozny in February 2000, the Ichkerian regime fell apart. Russia has severely disabled the Chechen rebel movement, although violence still occurs throughout the North Caucasus. Nonetheless, Russia was successful in installing a pro-Moscow Chechen regime, and the most prominent separatist leaders were killed, including former president Aslan Maskhadov and Shamil Basayev. In April 2009, Russia ended its counter-terrorism operation and pulled out the bulk of its army.[17] Three months later, leader of the separatist government, Akhmed Zakayev, called for a halt to armed resistance against the Chechen police force starting on August 1.[18]

Current Situation

The current presidnet Ramzan Kadyrov was picked by Kremlin. In a throwback to the Soviet times, the Kremlin turns a blind eye to Kadyrov's methods of ruling the country as long as the region is relatively stable. Kadyrov's men have been accused of numerous kidnappings and murder of civilians.

Driving Forces

Increased repression by Kadyrov and his government could lead to a coup or revolt, resulting in an eruption in violence and civil war and further destabilising the region.

Russia may increase funding to rebuild the country and further assist Kadyrov consolidate his rule, making the region more stable.

Paradigm Shift

Old

Kadyrov is the Kremlin's man in Chechnya. He keeps the region under control by use of force and intimidation however thanks to this the region is currently relatively stable with few clashes between Russian forces and Chechen rebels. In 2009 Russia officially ended its counter-terrorism operation in the region and withdrew most of its forces.

New

Kadyrov is a "ticking time bomb". While the Kremlin thinks Kadyrov is a trusted ally, Kadyrov can consolidate enough power and then attempt to declare independence leading to all out war with Russia or at the very least completely destabalising the region.

Source:

1. Population of Russia, its federal districts, federal subjects, districts, urban localities, rural localities—administrative centers, and rural localities with population of over 3,000" (in Russian). All-Russia Population Census of 2002. Federal State Statistics Service. 2004-05-21. http://perepis2002.ru/ct/html/TOM_01_04_1.htm. Retrieved 2009-10-05.

2. Leon Aron. Chechnya, New Dimensions of the Old Crisis. AEI, 01.02.2003

3. Human Rights Watch:Chechnya: Research Shows Widespread and Systematic Use of Torture

4. Wood, Tony, New Left Review. "The case for Chechnya". http://www.newleftreview.org/shtml.cgi?number=26401. Retrieved 2009-10-04.

5. Chechnya, reference article by Freedom House publications.