Break down in Russo-Chinese relations

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Name: Deterioration of Russo-Chinese relationship


What:


The relationship between China and Russia has been tense since the Chinese regime under Mao, had an ideological break with Kremlin. Throughout the Soviet Union era, the countries viewed each other with suspicion as possible opponents. Although relations have improved during Putin’s rule as president, there is a possibility that there will be a further breakdown as Russia becomes more drawn into the western sphere of influence.


Russian elite interest lie in the west and Russia will need to balance this with the need to maintain good relations with the Chinese.


Enablers:


Chinese claim to territories lost during the treaties in 1860


China was at war with a combined alliance of French and British forces. Russia was party to a number of the treaties signed as a result. The treaties were designed to open more Chinese ports to trade.


The treaties in question were: Tientsin in 1858 – established Russian diplomatic presence in China Aigun in 1858 – revised the Russo-Chinese border as determined by Nerchinsk treaty in 1689. Russia gained the left bank of the Amur River, pushing the border back from the Aigun river. This treaty gave Russia control of the non-freezing area on the Pacific coast where Russia founded the city of Vladivostok. China never ratified the treaties and resisted until the end of the Qing dynasty


China may want to pursue their territory claim and take back the territory.


Dispute over resources


China will require more resources for its economic growth over the next 20 years. Russia is rich in natural resources and there is a possibility that China may want to lay claim to these. Possibilities are more Chinese companies operating in Russia and Russia’s resistance to this. There is little possibility of an all-out war but this cannot be completely ignored.


Russian priority is to find clients for its resources in the west. In particular they will aim to develop their relationship with the EU and continue to provide gas to this area. Russia has dealt with Europe for a long time, it is unlikely that they will be looking to trade with China. This is a possible source of conflict.


Conflicting interests in Central Asia


Russia wants to reassert its regional leadership. China is looking to be a strategic player in the region along with Russia and the U.S. Shanghai Co operation agreement is a good tool for China to enter the game again as a regional player. Russia has a treaty called the Collective Security Treaty Organisation – China is not a member. The 2 treaties are competing organizations.


Russia wants control and leadership while China wants peace and stability in the region. Russia can polarize some countries in central Asia – namely the former Soviet Union countries such as Uzbekistan, Kazakhstan, etc. US enters into this game as well.


Continued Chinese military exercises in North China Russia seems to be occupied with its relationship with the EU and the U.S. China recently conducted very large scale exercises in the North part of the country. Potentially this means that China considers Russia as a military threat.


Inhibitors:


EU’s reduced dependce on Russian oil & gas New pipelines, namely the Baku – Tbilisi – Ceyhan may reduce EU’s dependence on Russian gas. Russia may need to begin to establish better diplomatic ties with China.


Chinese view of Russia China understands that Russia is ‘western centric’ and is a Europeans civilization.


Paradigms: Conventional thinking especially from the Western point of view and some from the Russian point of view have considered a military confrontation between China and Russia a real possibility. The view suggests that China will attack Russia or invade Russia’s borders either over land disputes or because of China’s increasing need for natural resources.


A different way of thinking about the relationship is suggested by an expert on Russo-Chinese relations, Bobby Lo. Lo suggests that China and Russia will co-operate in the future, not due to their ideological similarities; of which there are few, but rather because of the similar interests that they have.


China and Russia both reject unrestrained influence from the west. The biggest concern for both countries is the west’s criticism of the human rights record. It’s possible that continued pressure from Western countries will expose the regime and lead to instability as well as making the current regimes look illegitimate. Russia and China have some reasons to co-operate on. However it must be notes that relations based on interests can be short – lasting as countries objectives change.


Experts:


Bobo Lo


Timing:


Web Resources:


http://www.opendemocracy.net/russia/article/Russian-fears-of-China-not-based-in-reality