Future of Russia in 2030

From ScenarioThinking
Jump to navigation Jump to search


The Flag of Russia Federation
Russia Map
Russia Georgia conflict

By asking questions about present day Russia and looking at trends, we aim to develop three plausible but unconventional scenarios about Russia's future in 2030.


Chih-Hou Chen
Andrei Grigorian
Mark Pospisilik
Elsa Sheng


  1. Economic Questions
  2. Political Questions
  3. Policy
  4. Technological Questions
  5. Foreign Investment Questions
  6. Racism in Russia
  7. Demographics
  8. Miscellaneous


Political Driving Forces

  1. Break down in Russo-Chinese relations
  2. Increasing instability in the Caucasus
  3. Improved the relation with the US
  4. Increase/Decrease of individual and democratic rights and freedoms
  5. Increase/Decrease in the rule of law

Societal Driving Forces

  1. Decline of the Russian population

Environmental Driving Forces

  1. Enforcement of Environmental policy in Russia

Economic Driving Forces

  1. Increasing value of Nature Resource (Oil, Natural Gas) in Russia
  2. The Rise of BRIC Economies
  3. Poor Business Climate
  4. The post-Kyoto Economy of Russia

Technological Driving Forces

  1. The Increasing Influence of the Internet
  2. Russia's Investment in Military Technology


System diagram2.jpg

Inference Matrix

Russia Scenario inference Matrix

Scenario trees

Scenario Tree for the Future of Russia


  1. Interview 1 : Senior Executive of large company operating in Russia
  2. Interview 2 : Bobo Lo, Senior Research Fellow at Centre for European Reform: London
  3. Interview/reference 3: Conversation with Dmitry Medvedev. Answers to questions from Director of News Programmes at Russia's Channel One Kirill Kleimenov,October 11, 2009


  1. Black Gold's Curse:Crumbling Empire
  2. Putin: Return of the Czar
  3. Green Shoots



1.A journal on foreign affairs and international relations

2.2009-2010 the Global Competitive Report, take a look at pg.210-pg211

3.Russia world factbook

4.Russia scenarios web reference 2025

5.Putin's Russia: past imperfect, future uncertain, Dale Roy Herspring

6.Russia: continuity and change By Gerald Hinteregger, Hans-Georg Heinrich, Hans-Georg Heinrich

7.just type Russia in as a keyword and it will give any related news

8.Chances for a Reset in Russian Politics "Russia in Global Affairs". No 2, April - June 2009 By Dmitry Badovsky

9.How Russia could be more productive, McKinsey Quarterly

10.International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA)


12.JPRI Working Paper No. 62: November 1999 The Chinese Diaspora, Mongolia and the Sino-Russian Frontier, by Robert Bedeski

13.Parag Khanna maps the future of countries

14.President of Russia official website

15.Russia Ministry of Finance