Increase/Decrease in the rule of law

From ScenarioThinking
Jump to navigation Jump to search

Increase/Decrease in the rule of law


This force could move in either of two directions:

1) Toward greater consistency and transparency in the development and application of laws;

2) Toward less consistency and transparency in the development and application of laws.

This force would also act along an axis where the two directions above would define the two extremes of the axis.


One extreme of the axis is defined by: greater consistency and transparency in the development and application of laws.

Scenarios at this extreme of the axis will exhibit:


Transparency

Application and development of legal mechanisms would be accessible and understandable to the public


Effective distribution of power

Power would not be concentrated to the extent that it causes distortion of legal mechanisms (e.g. no persons or organizations become powerful enough that they are “above the law”)


Checks and Balances

Effective checks and balances ensure that power remains distributed over the long term (e.g. power not concentrated in the executive branch of government; and if temporarily concentrated, for example in the hands of an unusually popular politician, it is eventually redistributed to another politician or branch of government)


Effective, fair enforcement of laws

Judiciary is independent, principled, motivated and qualified, free from political interference to apply laws against powerful interests


Limitation of politicians’ influence

Politicians’ influence limited by effective conflict-of-interest rules, disclosure requirements, and empowered media


Lack of corruption

Effective application of laws, distribution of power, and transparency will inhibit corruption


The other extreme of the axis is defined by: lack of consistency and transparency in the development and application of laws.

Scenarios at this extreme of the axis will exhibit:


Lack of transparency

Application and development of legal mechanisms would be handled behind closed doors by political appointees


Concentration of power

Power, both political and commercial, would be concentrated to the extent that it distorts legal mechanisms (e.g. certain persons or organizations become powerful enough that they are “above the law”)


Ineffective Checks and Balances

power remains concentrated in specific persons or branches of government over the long term (e.g. power concentrated in the executive branch of government, which can then pressure the legislative branch to amend the constitution)


Ineffective, uneven enforcement of laws

Judiciary is politicized, comprised of appointees who are not independent of the other branches of government or other powerful interests


Limitation of politicians’ influence

Politicians’ influence limited by effective conflict-of-interest rules, disclosure requirements, and empowered media


Corruption

Ineffective application of laws, concentration of power, and lack of transparency will inevitably breed corruption