Putin: Return of the Czar
The Scenario
Return of the Tsar...The Empire strikes back
The Myth
Energy Superpower / Return of the Czar
Russia wants to regain the power and influence it lost with the collapse of the Soviet Union. Putin’s vision of Russia is that of an influential state, supporting Slavs in the region, using oil revenue to increase influence and power in the region.
Timeline
Period of 2010 - 2015
2010-2015 Return of the 5 year plan
There has been speculation about the true nature of the relationship between Dimitry Medvedev and Vladimir Putin, and about where the balance of power lies between the two men. The speculation is laid to rest in 2012 when Putin returns to the presidency. With the support of a compliant media Putin and his United Russia Party easily win the election against a narrow field of weak opponents. The election was one before it began because there was no credible opposition to begin with. The only real contest was between Putin and Medvedev, however, this contest was not played out in public, leaving observers guessing as to how the competition was resolved. Putin’s return to office is marked by an extravagant ceremony in the Kremlin, which causes some commentators to observe that the Tsar has claimed his rightful place on the throne.
Shortly after his election, Putin orders and personally oversees another restructuring of the defense and security forces, including the army and the FSB. This restructuring enables him to consolidate power, much as he did in 2000, keeping any opposition to him highly fragmented and preventing any strong rivals from emerging. Through the intelligence services Putin keeps tight control on corruption which, although institutionalized, is carefully monitored so that it does not taint the Kremlin.
The 2008 financial crisis and the collapse of oil prices made it very difficult for Russian oil and gas majors to pay their debts, let alone invest in technology and management. However high prices in 2010 (oil is around $100) mean that the Russian government and the oil and gas enterprises are again in the red.
Putin believes that in order to fulfill his vision of a strong, united Russia there must be active investment in Russia’s strategic resources and infrastructures. In a throwback to Soviet-style central planning, the government implements a 5- year plan to upgrade energy infrastructure. Major new projects are announced to upgrade and expand refineries, pipelines, railways, ports, electricity grids and nuclear power plants. State enterprises and private companies in the energy sector are required to invest a large portion of their earnings in new technologies and facilities.
The oil and gas industry is the target of an anti-corruption initiative from the Kremlin. There is a realization that corruption in the sector is particularly damaging because it not only massively diverts revenues away from Moscow but impedes foreign investment and involvement; this limits the ability of the sector to attract foreign technologies and expertise and benefit from the consequent productivity gains.
The Nord Stream project, a pipeline under the Baltic Sea to Germany, is completed on time in 2011. By delivering gas directly from Russia to Germany the pipeline effectively extends Russian influence over Eastern European countries (primarily Poland, Ukraine and Belorussia) since it makes it possible for Russia to limit their gas supply without affecting Western Europe.
Over time better management practices are introduced as political appointees lacking either the requisite technical expertise or demonstrable performance track record are replaced by new talent. Although strict limits on foreign ownership remain in place and the sector remains subject to political interference from time to time, in general relationships with western oil and gas companies improve as they feel there is more predictability in the sector and they have more control over their investments.
The government’s focus on and considerable investment in this sector inevitably results in neglect and underinvestment in health, education and the environment. Although Russia has historically been recognized as having a highly skilled labor force, those Russians that can afford it travel abroad for education and medical treatment. The majority of them ultimately return to Russia.
The judiciary and other agencies, though still staffed by Kremlin appointees, come under closer scrutiny with respect to performance. Though still suffering from occasional political interference, fairness and competence can be said to have objectively improved. The penal system remains rife with corruption and human rights abuses.
Period of 2015 - 2020
By 2015 the Russian armed forces are in a sad state. Chronic lack of investment, low pay, conscription, entrenched corruption, and the failure to achieve any real military success for decades, has lead to collapse of morale. The Russian military has historically been politically neutral and subservient to the political leadership, however, sources within Kremlin suggest that things have gotten so bad within the ranks that the military would be an unpredictable and unreliable in the event it was called upon to counter any significant national security threat. A five year plan is implemented to modernize the military. There is an immediate zero tolerance crackdown on dedovshina (hazing) and conscription is abolished. Over the next five years there is a substantial downsizing, salaries are raised, the nuclear arsenal is significantly reduced, and massive investment is made in upgrading hardware. Although the actual number of nuclear weapons falls, Russia invests in the delivery capability and upgrading existing nuclear warhead delivery technology.
Marketing and outreach programs are also initiated in an effort to attract quality career soldiers. The goal is to ensure that the armed forces are capable of reacting rapidly anywhere within Russia or its neighboring territories. The focus is on ensuring security of the energy infrastructure, regional integrity, cyber warfare, counter terrorism and assertion of Russian sovereignty in the Arctic. There is no longer an emphasis on maintaining the capability to project Russian force around the globe.
As a result of the downsizing and re birth of the army as a mobile, clinical and strategic force, the government understands the importance of investing in road and rail infrastructure. This is a must if they are to move the army efficiently and speedily from one corner of the country to another. Huge projects are started in order to better connect east corners of Russia with Moscow and St Petersburg and a large investment is made into improving the quality of existing roads and railways.
Due to better infrastructure and more effective management, Russian companies are increasingly competitive with foreign oil and gas companies. In addition, foreign oil companies are increasingly interested in Russia as they find it easier and easier to work there. The Russian government consciously monitors the activities of the major foreign companies to ensure that there is a relatively even amount of involvement by each of them (i.e. no single one becomes dominant over the others, or capable of challenging Moscow).
Investment in road and rail infrastructure in previous years leads to significantly improved connections between Russia’s regions. Trade between regions increases, and standards of living outside of Moscow and St. Petersburg start to improve. The government also implements a massive program aimed at reversing the population decline. Health spending is increased by 50%, with dramatic increases in doctors’ nurses’ salaries, hospital upgrades, and improved health coverage for average Russians. In addition, through a combination of tax breaks and subsidies families are effectively paid to have children. Motherhood effectively becomes a paying career.
In 2018 Putin easily wins another presidential term. He is 66 years old and it is widely believed that he will retire at the end of his term. His likely successor is unknown.
Energy supply politics is used by Russia to apply pressure to its neighbors. 2018 Russia uses its ability to turn off the supply of gas to Eastern Europe to prod Belorussia and Ukraine into talks of a customs union and free trade area. Kazakhstan, which is dependent on Russia to transport its gas to market, is also included in the deal. The agreement is signed in 2019, effectively extending Russia’s sphere of influence to the EU’s doorstep. Russian foreign policy continues to be characterized by intimidation and leverage of energy supplies.
Russia’s foreign policy is aimed at controlling countries close to its borders and spreading its sphere of influence into central Asia and Eastern Europe. Under the guise of wanting to support Slavs in the region, Russia begins talks with Belorussia and Ukraine, the plan is to create a free trade zone between the 3 countries and make travel between countries easier by getting rid of Visa requirements. Although Belorussia and Ukraine resist the idea, Russia is able to wield a lot of pressure through threats to cut of gas and oil supplies to both countries. Belorussia eventually agrees and is follow 6 months later by Ukraine. The Slavic Free Trade zone is created.
Period of 2020 - 2025
Moscow aggressively pursues improved bilateral cooperation with China. Despite China’s success in securing energy supplies around the globe, several major oil and gas suppliers have become unreliable. Nigeria has descended into chaos as climate change has aggravated the persistent insurgency in the Niger delta. Iran has descended into chaos and civil conflict under the strain of internal and external pressures; repeated uprisings of the pro-democracy movement have increasingly undermined the legitimacy of the regime, chronic instability and conflict in Afghanistan, Pakistan and Iraq. In addition China has had to limit its use of coal in recent years because the resultant health care costs arising from air pollution have begun to outweigh the benefits of using coal’s low price. Therefore, despite impressive advances in energy efficiency in China (China is now the world leader in fuel cells and batteries) its massive economy is starved for energy and is straining under astronomical energy prices. As a result, Russia and China enter into a massive deal involving oil, gas, water and hydroelectric power. From Russia’s perspective the net effect is a multibillion dollar investment by China in Russia’s energy sector and access to cutting edge Chinese technologies.
In 2022 Russia annexes Turkmenistan, Tajikistan, Uzbekistan and Kyrgyzstan. These increasingly isolated impoverished states, surrounded by conflict and under a combination of eccentric and incompetent leadership, were becoming progressively unstable. Under the pretext of fighting terrorism and ensuring its territorial integrity, Russia moved its troops in and was able to take control with virtually no bloodshed. Soon after South Ossetia and Abkhazia engage Russia in talks about joining the Russian Federation as sovereign states. A deal is concluded with the republics of South Ossetia and Abkhazia become part of the Russian Federation.
In 2024 Putin hands over power to his anointed successor in a stage-managed election. The new president previously held the post of Foreign Minister and Interior Minister and has support within the United Russia Party. Putin technically goes into retirement, however, he remains influential for years as the one who restored Russia to its rightful place in the world.
The family subsidies initiated in 2018 start to show dramatic results as the fertility rate rises from 1.5 to 2.3. The problem of population decline, which has been hanging over the Russian consciousness like a black cloud as the populations of neighboring countries continued to grow at 3%-7%, appears to have been solved.
After years of record breaking floods and droughts throughout Asia and Africa, during which Russia was relatively unaffected, in 2026 large parts of Asia suffer a 100-year drought as the Monsoon rains fail to materialize. Russia, which has long been one of the world’s major grain exporters, is able to provide millions of tons of food aid to affected countries.
Despite international assistance, the drought is the final straw for certain countries that were on the brink of collapse. As the governments of Pakistan and Afghanistan collapse Russia deploys 200,000 troops, in what appears to be a move closely coordinated with India which deploys 300,000 of its own troops, to restore order and to secure Pakistan’s nuclear arsenal.
Period of 2025 - 2030
Under pressure from Russia, Ukraine agrees to let Russia’s Black Sea fleet back into Crimea. Russia quickly asserts its influence in the region.
Kremlin begins to support ethnic Russians in Ukraine and Belorussia and becomes heavily involved in influencing the politics of both countries.
2030 sees Russia to continue having an increasing influence in Ukraine and Belorussia with talks planned to discuss Russia’s lease and possible purchase of regions of Ukraine, specifically Crimea.
Russia has now expanded into Central Asia and westward towards Europe. It is beginning to play the role that its rulers had envisioned, the new Slavic superpower.