Difference between revisions of "Future of the European Union in 2030"

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<h2 style="background-color: #F5F9FA; border-left:1px solid #AAAAAA;border-right:1px solid #AAAAAA; padding-left: 10px;">Team Composition </h2>
<h2 style="background-color: #F5F9FA; border-left:1px solid #AAAAAA;border-right:1px solid #AAAAAA; padding-left: 10px;">Team Composition</h2>
* [[Arthur Danzi]]
* [[Arthur Danzi]]
* [[User:GudmunudurKr|Gudmundur Kristjansson]] <br/>
* [[User:GudmunudurKr|Gudmundur Kristjansson]] <br/>
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* [[User:Sameeragarwal|Sameer Agarwal]] <br/>  
* [[User:Sameeragarwal|Sameer Agarwal]] <br/>  
* [[Sri Hari Krishnan]] <br/>
* [[Sri Hari Krishnan]] <br/>
<br />
<h2 style="background-color: #F5F9FA; border-left:1px solid #AAAAAA;border-right:1px solid #AAAAAA; padding-left: 10px;">Introduction </h2>


<br /><br />
==Introduction==
<h2 style="background-color: #F5F9FA; border-left:1px solid #AAAAAA;border-right:1px solid #AAAAAA; padding-left: 10px;">Research Questions </h2>
[[Image:EUFlag.jpg|thumb|The Flag of the European Union|220px]] [[Image:EUMap.png|thumb|European Union 2009|220px]] [[Image:EUCandidatecCountries.png|thumb|Candidate countries|220px]] [[Image:LikelyFutureEnlargements.png|thumb|Likely Future Enlargements|220px]]
The European Union was formally established when the Maastricht Treaty came into force on 1 November 1993. It was based on the foundations of earlier treaties made after the second world war in order to integrate the continent and escape from the extreme forms of nationalism which had caused devastating war in the first half of the 20th Century. Over time the EU has grown to become much more than a peace treaty or trade agreement. Its creation has enabled a single market through a standardized system of laws which apply in all member states, ensuring the freedom of movement of people, goods, services, and capital. The common currency of the Euro has grown in power and many consider it to be the replacement of the dollar as the world's reserve currency.<br\>


=== EU & Europe Definitions - Mauricio ===
However, current world events have put the union under severe stress. Many factors ranging from the financial crisis to the EU's growing energy dependency and the inclusion of Turkey into the Union are causing disturbances and necessitating decisions which will have far reaching consequences on its future. This scenario project is an attempt to utilize these and several other uncertainties to create three very different futures for the EU.
 
==Research Questions==
 
<b>EU & Europe Definitions</b>
# [[What is the definition of Europe?]]
# [[What is the definition of Europe?]]
# [[What countries are part of the European Union?]]
# [[What countries are part of the European Union?]]
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# [[What are the candidate countries that want to be part of the European Union?]]
# [[What are the candidate countries that want to be part of the European Union?]]
# [[What is the euro zone?]]
# [[What is the euro zone?]]
 
<b>Politics</b>
=== Politics - GK ===
# [[How is the European Union Governed]]?
# [[How is the European Union Governed]]
# [[What are the main bodies of the EU?]]
# [[What are the main bodies of the EU?]]
# [[How is the European parliament elected?]]
# [[How is the European parliament elected?]]
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# [[How does the EU tick?]]
# [[How does the EU tick?]]
# [[How is the EU budget managed?]]
# [[How is the EU budget managed?]]
# Are there any planned budget policy changes?
# [[What is the main driver for the EU expansion?]]
# [[What is the main driver for the EU expansion?]]
# [[Will the expansion of the EU now come to a halt?]]
# [[Will the expansion of the EU now come to a halt?]]
# [[Is public opinion in the EU in favour of more enlargement?]]
# [[Is public opinion in the EU in favour of more enlargement?]]
# What are the main issues in Europe (other than financial)?
<b>Policy</b>
 
# [[What are the Agriculture policies of the EU?]]
=== Policy - GK ===
# [[What are the Energy policies of the EU?]]
# [[What are the Agriculture policies of the EU? - check if you agree GK]]
# [[What are the Regional policies of the EU?]]
# [[What are the Energy policies of the EU? - same here, M]]
# [[What are the Environment policies of the EU?]]
# What are the Infrastructure policies of the EU?
# What are the Regional policies of the EU?
# [[What are the Environment policies of the EU? - same here]]
# [[What are the Educational policies of the EU?]]
# [[What are the Educational policies of the EU?]]
# What are the foreign policies of the EU?
# [[What are the foreign policies of the EU?]]
 
# [[What does the Treaty of Lisbon mean for EU?]]
=== Environment - Sri Hari ===
<b>Environment </b>
# What is the key driver for environmental policy changes for EU the past 5 years?
# [[What has been EU's environmental policy over past 5 years?]]
# Will the EU change its environmental focus in the next 20 years?
# [[EU's response to climate change?]]
 
# [[What are EU's actions after the financial crisis?]]<br>
=== Economics - Sameer ===
<b>Economics</b>
# [[What is the GDP and Growth Rate of the EU?]]
# [[What is the GDP and Growth Rate of the EU?]]
# [[How is monetary policy governed within the EU?]]
# [[How is monetary policy governed within the EU?]]
# [[What can cause the instability of the Euro?]]
# [[What can cause the instability of the Euro?]]
# Will the EU change its Economic policy because of the financial crisis in 2007-10?
# [[What are trade statistics for the EU?]]
# How will be the energetic matrix in 2030?
# [[What is the energy profile of the EU?]]
 
<b>Society</b>
=== Society - Arthur ===
# [[Does European Union really bond its members together?]]
# [[Does European Union really bond its members together?]]
# [[How do European inhabitants feel about EU?]]  
# [[How do European inhabitants feel about EU?]]  
# [[What are the immigration trends to EU for EU and Non-EU citizens?]]  
# [[What are the immigration trends to EU for EU and Non-EU citizens?]]  
# [[What present of EU states are satisfied with being a member state?]]
<b>Terrorism </b>
# [[How "European" are EU citizens and do they share a common identity?]]
 
=== Terrorism - Mauricio ===
# [[What has been the impact of terrorism on the EU?]]
# [[What has been the impact of terrorism on the EU?]]
# [[How the recent rebirth of radical nationalist movements influences the EU? ]]
# [[How the recent rebirth of radical nationalist movements influences the EU? ]]
# [[European countries are fighting against terrorism but, what about separatist groups like IRA and ETA?]]
# [[European countries are fighting against terrorism but, what about separatist groups like IRA and ETA?]]
 
<b>Demographics</b>
=== Demographics - Sameer ===
# [[What is the population of the EU and how is it distributed?]]
# [[What is the population of the EU and how is it distributed?]]
# [[What are the main religions practiced in the EU?]]
# [[What are the main religions practiced in the EU?]]
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# [[What are other key demographic statistics for the EU?]]
# [[What are other key demographic statistics for the EU?]]
# [[What is the level of immigration and emigration?]]  
# [[What is the level of immigration and emigration?]]  
# [[What are the main issues with changing religion makeup of Europe?]]
<b>Geopolitics</b>
# What will be the main issues with the ageing population of the western EU states?
# [[Do non EU countries prefer to deal with EU or to deal directly with individual members]]?
 
# [[Enlargement of EU?]]
=== Geopolitics - Sri Hari ===
# [[The future of European Union: Managing Globalization]]
# Do non EU countries prefer to deal with EU or to deal directly with individual members?
# [[The future of European Union: Future Trends]]
 
# [[Can the EU disintegrate like the USSR?]]
# Enlargement of EU?
# [[EU and Asia?]]
Article 49 of the Maastricht Treaty (as amended) says that any European state that respects the "principles of liberty, democracy, respect for human rights and fundamental freedoms, and the rule of law", may apply to join the Union. The Copenhagen European Council set out the conditions for EU membership in June 1993 in the so-called Copenhagen criteria. The Western Balkan states had to sign Stabilisation and Association Agreements before either applying for and gaining candidate status, and all have already done so.
# [[EU and India?]]
The countries prioritised for membership are those in the Western Balkans, Turkey, and Iceland with three of these — Turkey, Croatia and Macedonia[1] — gaining candidate status. However in June 2008, the French President Nicolas Sarkozy and German Chancellor Angela Merkel said that the EU cannot enlarge beyond 27 states without reform of the institution of the current Treaty of Nice rules. Such a reform would happen if the Lisbon Treaty comes into force, however as yet this is by no means guaranteed.
# [[EU and China?]]
If the dissolution of the Netherlands Antilles goes ahead, there would be a minor enlargement (within the Netherlands) from the three Caribbean islands that chose to integrate with the Netherlands. The Netherlands has suggested that the proposed Treaty of Lisbon allow the Netherlands Antilles and Aruba to opt for the status of outermost regions if they wish.[12] However, this is dependent on the Lisbon Treaty coming into force.
# [[EU and Japan?]]
A referendum on Mayotte becoming an overseas department of France in 2011 was held on 29 March 2009.[13] The outcome was "yes" (95.2%).[14] This will mean that there will be another minor enlargement of the European Union to Mayotte. http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/thumb/9/9a/EU27-candidate_countries_map.svg/680px-EU27-candidate_countries_map.svg.png
# [[EU and South Korea?]]
Source: Enlargement of the European Union, Wikipedia.org
# [[EU and US?]]
 
# [[EU and Canada?]]
# What is the EU's outlook towards full membership of the Balkans and Turkey?
# [[EU and Africa?]]
# Would EU disintegrate like the USSR?  
# [[EU and Latin America?]]
# Can EU form a larger economic block with Russia, India and China?  
# [[EU and Russia?]]
# In case that the EU will form a large economic block, what USA would do?  
# [[EU and Middle East?]]
# If Iceland will be the 29th member state, will it cause any friction between the EU and other application states?
# [[What if Primakov's triangle becomes a reality?]]
# How will EU and China relationship develop?
# How will EU and India relationship develop?
# How will EU and US relationship develop?
# How will EU and North Africa relationship develop?
# What role does Africa play for Europe?
# What if Primakov's triangle becomes a reality?
The dispute regarding the first priority in the foreign policy of Russia – whether it should have the Western or the Eastern orientation – has been going on for quite a long time already. The discussion was not surfacing much only during the Soviet era, perhaps. However, it would not be correct to compare the foreign policy of the USSR with the one of present-day Russia.
The issue of the Russian foreign political priority has been gathering pace for the recent six or seven years. The then Russian Prime Minister Yevgeny Primakov, who currently chairs the Chamber of Industry and Commerce, became the person, who spurred the issue up again. Mr. Primakov set forth the idea to establish a special relationship between Russia, India and China. The idea was later referred to as “Primakov's Triangle” in Russian journalism.
It goes without saying that the idea of creating such a triangle is based on the wish to challenge the supremacy of the USA. This desire can be seen rather clearly, although it differs a lot with the real state of things. The idea seems to be quite nice, although Primakov's triangle is not likely to take the shape of something real. Yevgeny Primakov's idea was impromptu, for the politician did not put forward any certain suggestions on the matter.
Beijing and Delhi were not inspired with the perspective of the trilateral strategic partnership because of the above-mentioned reason. The two countries are not ready to challenge Washington just because of the fact that they are happy with their cooperation with the USA in comparison with Primakov's idea to come into a certain political alliance with Russia. In addition, the US administration has recently lifted restrictions for arms deliveries to India, which might cause very big problems to the Russian defense export to this country. The USA does not have an intention to make such a concession to China, though. On the other hand, Washington has recently removed its objections regarding lifting the embargo for arms deliveries from the European Union.
In addition, the USA is an extremely important trade partner for India and China. Russia will not be able to make a competition at this point, at least in the nearest perspective. Needless to mention that neither Delhi nor Beijing will agree to sacrifice the profit for the sake of a rather obscure goal.
To crown it all, both India and China used to experience keen rivalries in the struggle for their influence in the Asian region. Pakistan was supporting China in that struggle, whereas India was having traditional problems with it.
Russian experts are being rather skeptical about the idea to establish an alliance with India and China too. Yevgeny Primakov stated last week at the Diplomatic Academy of the Foreign Ministry of China that such an opportunity seemed to be possible for him. “The triangle will be very helpful in maintaining the regional security,” Primakov said. Sergei Karagonov, the chairman of the presidium of the Russian Council for foreign defense policy, is certain, though, that Primakov's idea is nonviable. The specialist believes that none of the three states want to create a direct opposition to the USA: “China, Russia and India want to be friends with the USA,” Karagonov said.
Mr. Karagonov also pointed out considerable cultural differences between the three countries, as well as intense relations between China and India, RIA Novosti reports.
It was reported on Monday, however, that India and China concluded a strategic partnership agreement. Details of the new document were not exposed, although it is known that the parties came to agreement on the issues of the long-standing border dispute, bilateral trade relations and the economic cooperation. Indian and Chinese prime ministers stated that the document would boost diplomatic and economic links between China and India and help the two states resist “global threats.”
For the time being it is not known if Russia is going to have at least something to do with the “strategic partnership” of India and China. It is not ruled out, though, that Beijing and Delhi decided to do without Moscow's participation.
Source:India, China and Russia to create new alliance to challenge USA's supremacy, pravada.ru
 
# Would Russia with its huge gas reserves would like to play a pivotal role in Europe?
# How does the world (US, BRICS,etc.,) perceive the EU? Would they want a strong EU?
 
=== Infrastructure - Arthur ===
# Does the EU need to focus on new infrastructure approaches?


<br/>
==Numbers that Matter==
<h2 style="background-color: #F5F9FA; border-left:1px solid #AAAAAA;border-right:1px solid #AAAAAA; padding-left: 10px;">Systems Diagram </h2>
As part of the scenario building we have validated a few claims made about the future of the European union. Here are our summary presentations.
<br /><br />
*[http://www.slideshare.net/persight/numbers-that-matter-muslim-demographics-the-truth Muslim Demographics - The Truth]


<h2 style="background-color: #F5F9FA; border-left:1px solid #AAAAAA;border-right:1px solid #AAAAAA; padding-left: 10px;">Driving Forces </h2>
==Driving Forces==
<b>Political Driving Forces</b>
*[[Political Stability in Europe]]
*[[Institutional & Bureaucratic Dynamics]]
*[[To be a world power house]]
*[[Turkey Joining the EU]]
*[[Movement Towards World Unification]]
*[[Islamic Fundamentalism]]
*[[Terrorism]]
<b>Technological Driving Forces</b>
*[[Alternative sources of energy]]
<b>Environmental Driving Forces</b>
*[[Interests of lesser developed member states and the cost of subsidizing their practices]]
*[[Pressure from developing countries]]
*[[Effects of climate change]]
<b>Economic Driving Forces</b>
*[[EU as a Counterweight to America]]
*[[Energy Scarcity in Europe]]
*[[The increasing globalization of markets]]
<b>Societal Driving Forces</b>
*[[Increasing Mobility]]
*[[Aging Europe]]
*[[Unemployment]]
*[[Racism]]


=== Political Driving Forces ===
==System Diagram==
# [[World Unification]]
[[Image:EU_Systems_Diagram.jpg|Systems Diagram|800px]]
# [[Threat of war]]
# [[The Rise of BRIC Economies]]


=== Technological Driving Forces ===
== Inference matrix ==
# [[Public attitude to science and technology]]
{| class="wikitable"
# [[Mobility]]
|-
# [[Nanotechnology]]
!
 
! [[The Blame Game]]
=== Environmental Driving Forces ===
! [[New Beginning]]
# [[Greenhouse gases emissions trading affecting production in the EU]]
! [[The Gilded Cage]]
# [[Scarcity of Water in the EU]]
|-
# [[Increasing need to clean energy]]
|<i>Governance</i>
|National
|[[Network]]
|[http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Supranational_union Supranational union]
|-
|<i>Economy</i>
|[http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Recession Recession]
|[http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Economic_growth Fast Growth]
|[http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Economic_growth Slow Growth]
|-
|<i>Identity</i>
|[[Inward]]
|[[Outward]]
| -
|-
|<i>Immigration</i>
|[[Closed Border]]
|[http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Open_borders Open Border]
|[[As is]]
|-
|<i>Boundary</i>
|Break Up
|Expansion
|[http://news.scotsman.com/europeanunion/CIA-gives-grim-warning-on.2595505.jp Slow Decline]
|-
|<i>Financial</i>
|[http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Socialism System Socialism]
|[http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mixed_economy Mix]
|[http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Capitalism Capitalism]
|-
|<i>Commerce/Trade</i>
|Restricted
|[http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Free_trade Free]
|[http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Free_trade Free]
|-
|<i>Resources/Energy</i>
|[[Energy Scarcity in Europe]]
|[[Alternative sources of energy]]
|[[Energy Scarcity in Europe]]
|-
|<i>Political Alignment</i>
|Reactive
|Liberal / Progressive
|Liberal / Progressive
|-
|<i>Population Change</i>
|[[Aging Europe]]
|[[Increasing Mobility]]/Immigration
|[[Aging Europe]]
|-
|}


=== Economic Driving Forces ===
==Scenario Tree==
# [[EU ambitions for economic growth, as expressed in the Lisbon Declaration.]]
[[Image:FishEUScenarios.png|800px|Scenario Tree for the Future of Europe]]
# [[Threat of total financial meltdown]]
# [[European integration]]
# [[European dependence on Russian Gas]]


=== Societal Driving Forces ===
==Scenarios==
# [[EU view of itself – culturally diverse or seeking homogeneity – with the associated political implications]]
These are the three scenarios that are likely to be the future of Europe in 2030. Each scenario consist of a story that tell about how the future looks in 2030. Following that comes a section that gives all background information, illustrating in detail how this future came to be.
# [[Increasing Mobility]]
# [[Aging population]]
# [[Changes in Religion buildup of Europe]]
# [[Aging Europe]]
<br />


<h2 style="background-color: #F5F9FA; border-left:1px solid #AAAAAA;border-right:1px solid #AAAAAA; padding-left: 10px;">Scenarios</h2>
<!-- # [[Engraving common ones and zeros]] -->


<h2 style="background-color: #F5F9FA; border-left:1px solid #AAAAAA;border-right:1px solid #AAAAAA; padding-left: 10px;">References</h2>
<b>[[The Blame Game]]</b><br>
The European unification has come to an end after many attempts to unify it under a new Constitution to give more power to Brussels.


=== Scenario Reports ===
* [http://www.dni.gov/nic/PDF_GIF_2020_Support/2004_04_28_papers/scenarios.pdf NIC Europe 2020 - Scenarios - Workshop Date: April 28-29, 2004 - Venue: Budapest, Hungary]
* [ftp://ftp.cordis.europa.eu/pub/foresight/docs/ntw_scenarios_report_en.pdf New Technology Wave – Scenarios for Europe in 2020 (pdf)]
* [http://www.mcrit.com/espon_scenarios/files/documents/e2020fd.pdf European Energy to 2020 - A scenario approach (pdf)]
* [http://www.environment.fi/default.asp?contentid=326381&lan=EN Water Scenarios for Europe and for Neighbouring States]
* [http://www.eurofound.europa.eu/pubdocs/2008/40/en/1/ef0840en.pdf Trends and drivers of change in the EU transport and logistics sector: Scenarios (pdf)]


=== Economic Reports ===
<b>[[The Gilded Cage]]</b><br>
* [http://europa.eu/index_en.htm  Statistics and figures for all countries of the European Union]
The EU establishes good governance and is quite strongly bonded. With greater co-operation and merger of cultures it is able to sustain its growth. But, in the wider geo-political scene it loses its political clout to the emerging markets. The EU is prosperous but its glory is part of history.


=== Presentations ===
* [http://ec.europa.eu/budget/reform/conference/documents_en.htm Conference "Reforming the Budget, Changing Europe"]


=== News & Other Sources ===
<b>[[New Beginning]]</b><br>
* [http://www.eurofound.europa.eu/publications/htmlfiles/ef0823.htm Trends and drivers of change in the EU energy sector: Scenarios]
The "New Beginning" scenario focus on an European Union based on policies of similarities among countries and that those similarities will be able to create a movement of renewal and growth within the area. Policies of integration and open borders, helped the expansion of the European Union to a new level. This new EU has more global influence and has free trade as its main selling point.
* [http://www.economicshelp.org/2007/03/economic-problems-of-european-union.html Economic Problems of European Union]
<br>
* [http://homepages.uel.ac.uk/u0010915/_vti_cnf/IMMIGRATION%20PROBLEMS%20IN%20THE%20EU.htm Immigration Problems in EU]
<br>
* [http://www.oecdobserver.org/news/fullstory.php/aid/337/ Immigration in the European Union: problem or solution?]
* [http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/europe/2266385.stm Q&A: EU enlargement]
* [http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/European_Union About the European Union on Wikipedia]


<h2 style="background-color: #F5F9FA; border-left:1px solid #AAAAAA;border-right:1px solid #AAAAAA; padding-left: 10px;">Interview Questions</h2>
==References==
# [[What are the main political issues currently facing the European Union]]
# [[What are the main political forces in the European Union]]
# [[What will happen if Turkey is accepted as part of the EU? ]]


<h2 style="background-color: #F5F9FA; border-left:1px solid #AAAAAA;border-right:1px solid #AAAAAA; padding-left: 10px;">Meeting Agenda</h2>
<b>Scenario Reports</b>
September 9, 2009 - 17:00 to 18:30<br />
*[http://www.dni.gov/nic/PDF_GIF_2020_Support/2004_04_28_papers/scenarios.pdf NIC Europe 2020 - Scenarios - Workshop Date: April 28-29, 2004 - Venue: Budapest, Hungary]
September 14, 2009 - 14:00 to 15:00
*[ftp://ftp.cordis.europa.eu/pub/foresight/docs/ntw_scenarios_report_en.pdf New Technology Wave – Scenarios for Europe in 2020 (pdf)]
*[http://www.mcrit.com/espon_scenarios/files/documents/e2020fd.pdf European Energy to 2020 - A scenario approach (pdf)]
*[http://www.environment.fi/default.asp?contentid=326381&lan=EN Water Scenarios for Europe and for Neighbouring States]
*[http://www.eurofound.europa.eu/pubdocs/2008/40/en/1/ef0840en.pdf Trends and drivers of change in the EU transport and logistics sector: Scenarios (pdf)]
*[http://www.espon.eu/mmp/online/website/content/publications/98/1378/file_2995/espon3.2_60p._final_16-7-2007-c.pdf Scenarios on the territorial future of Europe to 2030]
*[http://www.mcrit.com/scenarios/index.htm Could we imagine another future for Europe? (very good resource)]
<b>Economic Reports & Statistics</b>
*[http://europa.eu/index_en.htm  Statistics and figures for all countries of the European Union]
*[http://www.thud.nl/wkmaps/ Europe Interactive Map - Can compare different EU region]
<b>Presentations</b>
*[http://ec.europa.eu/budget/reform/conference/documents_en.htm Conference "Reforming the Budget, Changing Europe"]
<b>Research Papers and Books</b>
*Anderson, M. (2000) States and nationalism in Europe. London
*Bauman, Z., 1989, Modernity and the Holocaust. Cambridge: Polity Press.
*Bauman, Z., 1993, Postmodern Ethics. Oxford: Blackwell.
*Bauman, Z., 1991. Modernity and Ambivalence. Cambridge: Polity Press.
*Bauman., Z., 1995. Life in Fragments: Essays in Postmodern Morality. Oxford: Blackwell.
*Bauman/Europe: An Unfinished Adventure. Final Proof 18/08/2004
*Drake, G. (1994) Issues in the new Europe. London
*Foucher, M. (1995) The new faces of Europe. Strasbourg
*Hermet, G. (1998) A history of nations and nationalism in Europe. London
*Lichtenberger, H. (2000) Studying Europe: challenges and prospects for European studies. Baden-Baden
*Marsden, W.E and V.M. (1989) Going into Europe. Edinburgh
*Morin, E. (1991) Europa denken. Frankfurt
*Morris, J. (1998) Fifty years of Europe. London
<b>News & Other Sources</b>
*[http://www.eurofound.europa.eu/publications/htmlfiles/ef0823.htm Trends and drivers of change in the EU energy sector: Scenarios]
*[http://www.economicshelp.org/2007/03/economic-problems-of-european-union.html Economic Problems of European Union]
*[http://homepages.uel.ac.uk/u0010915/_vti_cnf/IMMIGRATION%20PROBLEMS%20IN%20THE%20EU.htm Immigration Problems in EU]
*[http://www.oecdobserver.org/news/fullstory.php/aid/337/ Immigration in the European Union: problem or solution?]
*[http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/europe/2266385.stm Q&A: EU enlargement]
*[http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/European_Union About the European Union on Wikipedia]
*[http://endofmen.wordpress.com/2008/06/10/why-ireland-should-vote-no-to-the-lisbon-treaty/ Why Ireland should vote No to the Lisbon Treaty]
<b>Videos</b>
*[http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bM2Ql3wOGcU The European Union - the New Soviet Union?]
*[http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-I8M1T-GgRU&NR=1&feature=fvwp Barroso: European Union is 'empire']
*[http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Cl_yr0lOSbU&NR=1 Should the UK leave the European Union?]
*[http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7L0ld_Rjh38&NR=1 Interview - Jose Manuel Barroso]
*[http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6OvguckX9V0 Economic future of EU is Green" Philippe Lamberts from EGP on EU Elections]
*[http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0CchEH-zTm8 Davos Open Forum 2006 - The Future of Europe in the World]
*[http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=yLaWTkEUOH4 EU European Union Strasbourg Parliament Poster Pentagrams]
*[http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2B5xgtwu9yw The Rise of the European Superstate]
*[http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=IiFFAcfkeOQ An alternative view of the European Union]
*[http://www.radioradicale.it/scheda/277976 Which future for Europe? The Regression of the EU into an Anti-historic Europe of 27 Little Fatherlands - 3 Day Conference]
*[http://fora.tv/2008/06/01/Uncommon_Knowledge_Daniel_Pipes#Daniel_Pipes_-_The_Uncertain_Future_of_Muslims_in_Europe The Uncertain Future of Europe (Eurabia?)]
*[http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9p9VC_P3Gf8 EU Takeover & the Lisbon Treaty]
*[http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8Kr0Foq3CQE MEP Exposes The EU Lisbon Treaty]
*[http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jlrESONoYR4 The Lisbon Treaty is a Fascist Conspiracy]
*[http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=fzf7GUmbsdM Will the Lisbon Treaty achieve its goals?]
*[http://www.youtube.com/results?search_query=Lisbon+Treaty&search_type=&aq=f Jim Corr on The Lisbon Treaty & The New World Order.]
*[http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=VC4Mn9Grs3w Frost over the World - Ireland's Lisbon treaty vote-2 Oct 09]
*[http://videolectures.net/iswc06_fountain_pc/ The Semantic Web and Networked Governance: Promise and Challenges]
*[http://www.vimeo.com/4397158 Program on Networked Governance CCCSN Seminar 2009-04-13: Jennifer Chayes]

Latest revision as of 16:08, 17 October 2009

Team Composition

Introduction

The Flag of the European Union
European Union 2009
Candidate countries
Likely Future Enlargements

The European Union was formally established when the Maastricht Treaty came into force on 1 November 1993. It was based on the foundations of earlier treaties made after the second world war in order to integrate the continent and escape from the extreme forms of nationalism which had caused devastating war in the first half of the 20th Century. Over time the EU has grown to become much more than a peace treaty or trade agreement. Its creation has enabled a single market through a standardized system of laws which apply in all member states, ensuring the freedom of movement of people, goods, services, and capital. The common currency of the Euro has grown in power and many consider it to be the replacement of the dollar as the world's reserve currency.<br\>

However, current world events have put the union under severe stress. Many factors ranging from the financial crisis to the EU's growing energy dependency and the inclusion of Turkey into the Union are causing disturbances and necessitating decisions which will have far reaching consequences on its future. This scenario project is an attempt to utilize these and several other uncertainties to create three very different futures for the EU.

Research Questions

EU & Europe Definitions

  1. What is the definition of Europe?
  2. What countries are part of the European Union?
  3. What is the history of the European Union?
  4. What are the candidate countries that want to be part of the European Union?
  5. What is the euro zone?

Politics

  1. How is the European Union Governed?
  2. What are the main bodies of the EU?
  3. How is the European parliament elected?
  4. How is the European parliament structured?
  5. How do the countries work together?
  6. How does the EU take decisions?
  7. How does the EU tick?
  8. How is the EU budget managed?
  9. What is the main driver for the EU expansion?
  10. Will the expansion of the EU now come to a halt?
  11. Is public opinion in the EU in favour of more enlargement?

Policy

  1. What are the Agriculture policies of the EU?
  2. What are the Energy policies of the EU?
  3. What are the Regional policies of the EU?
  4. What are the Environment policies of the EU?
  5. What are the Educational policies of the EU?
  6. What are the foreign policies of the EU?
  7. What does the Treaty of Lisbon mean for EU?

Environment

  1. What has been EU's environmental policy over past 5 years?
  2. EU's response to climate change?
  3. What are EU's actions after the financial crisis?

Economics

  1. What is the GDP and Growth Rate of the EU?
  2. How is monetary policy governed within the EU?
  3. What can cause the instability of the Euro?
  4. What are trade statistics for the EU?
  5. What is the energy profile of the EU?

Society

  1. Does European Union really bond its members together?
  2. How do European inhabitants feel about EU?
  3. What are the immigration trends to EU for EU and Non-EU citizens?

Terrorism

  1. What has been the impact of terrorism on the EU?
  2. How the recent rebirth of radical nationalist movements influences the EU?
  3. European countries are fighting against terrorism but, what about separatist groups like IRA and ETA?

Demographics

  1. What is the population of the EU and how is it distributed?
  2. What are the main religions practiced in the EU?
  3. What are the main languages spoken in the EU?
  4. What are other key demographic statistics for the EU?
  5. What is the level of immigration and emigration?

Geopolitics

  1. Do non EU countries prefer to deal with EU or to deal directly with individual members?
  2. Enlargement of EU?
  3. The future of European Union: Managing Globalization
  4. The future of European Union: Future Trends
  5. Can the EU disintegrate like the USSR?
  6. EU and Asia?
  7. EU and India?
  8. EU and China?
  9. EU and Japan?
  10. EU and South Korea?
  11. EU and US?
  12. EU and Canada?
  13. EU and Africa?
  14. EU and Latin America?
  15. EU and Russia?
  16. EU and Middle East?
  17. What if Primakov's triangle becomes a reality?

Numbers that Matter

As part of the scenario building we have validated a few claims made about the future of the European union. Here are our summary presentations.

Driving Forces

Political Driving Forces

Technological Driving Forces

Environmental Driving Forces

Economic Driving Forces

Societal Driving Forces

System Diagram

Systems Diagram

Inference matrix

The Blame Game New Beginning The Gilded Cage
Governance National Network Supranational union
Economy Recession Fast Growth Slow Growth
Identity Inward Outward -
Immigration Closed Border Open Border As is
Boundary Break Up Expansion Slow Decline
Financial System Socialism Mix Capitalism
Commerce/Trade Restricted Free Free
Resources/Energy Energy Scarcity in Europe Alternative sources of energy Energy Scarcity in Europe
Political Alignment Reactive Liberal / Progressive Liberal / Progressive
Population Change Aging Europe Increasing Mobility/Immigration Aging Europe

Scenario Tree

Scenario Tree for the Future of Europe

Scenarios

These are the three scenarios that are likely to be the future of Europe in 2030. Each scenario consist of a story that tell about how the future looks in 2030. Following that comes a section that gives all background information, illustrating in detail how this future came to be.


The Blame Game
The European unification has come to an end after many attempts to unify it under a new Constitution to give more power to Brussels.


The Gilded Cage
The EU establishes good governance and is quite strongly bonded. With greater co-operation and merger of cultures it is able to sustain its growth. But, in the wider geo-political scene it loses its political clout to the emerging markets. The EU is prosperous but its glory is part of history.


New Beginning
The "New Beginning" scenario focus on an European Union based on policies of similarities among countries and that those similarities will be able to create a movement of renewal and growth within the area. Policies of integration and open borders, helped the expansion of the European Union to a new level. This new EU has more global influence and has free trade as its main selling point.

References

Scenario Reports

Economic Reports & Statistics

Presentations

Research Papers and Books

  • Anderson, M. (2000) States and nationalism in Europe. London
  • Bauman, Z., 1989, Modernity and the Holocaust. Cambridge: Polity Press.
  • Bauman, Z., 1993, Postmodern Ethics. Oxford: Blackwell.
  • Bauman, Z., 1991. Modernity and Ambivalence. Cambridge: Polity Press.
  • Bauman., Z., 1995. Life in Fragments: Essays in Postmodern Morality. Oxford: Blackwell.
  • Bauman/Europe: An Unfinished Adventure. Final Proof 18/08/2004
  • Drake, G. (1994) Issues in the new Europe. London
  • Foucher, M. (1995) The new faces of Europe. Strasbourg
  • Hermet, G. (1998) A history of nations and nationalism in Europe. London
  • Lichtenberger, H. (2000) Studying Europe: challenges and prospects for European studies. Baden-Baden
  • Marsden, W.E and V.M. (1989) Going into Europe. Edinburgh
  • Morin, E. (1991) Europa denken. Frankfurt
  • Morris, J. (1998) Fifty years of Europe. London

News & Other Sources

Videos

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