Future of the European Union in 2030

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Team Composition

Introduction

The Flag of the European Union
European Union 2009
Candidate countries
Likely Future Enlargements

Stories

  1. Reactionary (change in identity)

The current financial crisis leads to a depression in Europe. The billions of Euro pumped into the financial market by the richer nations in the EU, helps the economy to stabalise and show signs of recovery. But, the recovery is long drawn and the rich nations are not able to sustain the financial flow and start withdrawing the money released to divert it to other economic requirements. The EU is also unable to sustain subsidising the lesser developed member states. This causes wide spent resentment among member nations. With rising unemployment levels and falling standards of living, member nations turn their focus inward and adopt more socialistic practices. People start re-looking at their identity. Till now they believed in a unified EU, but as the EU is not able to keep the ship afloat, richer members consider the option of being the first to part ways so that they are able to serve their people better. EU starts disintegrating.

Research Questions

EU & Europe Definitions

  1. What is the definition of Europe?
  2. What countries are part of the European Union?
  3. What is the history of the European Union?
  4. What are the candidate countries that want to be part of the European Union?
  5. What is the euro zone?

Politics

  1. How is the European Union Governed?
  2. What are the main bodies of the EU?
  3. How is the European parliament elected?
  4. How is the European parliament structured?
  5. How do the countries work together?
  6. How does the EU take decisions?
  7. How does the EU tick?
  8. How is the EU budget managed?
  9. Are there any planned budget policy changes?
  10. What is the main driver for the EU expansion?
  11. Will the expansion of the EU now come to a halt?
  12. Is public opinion in the EU in favour of more enlargement?
  13. What are the main issues in Europe (other than financial)?

Policy

  1. What are the Agriculture policies of the EU? - check if you agree GK
  2. What are the Energy policies of the EU? - same here, M
  3. What are the Infrastructure policies of the EU?
  4. What are the Regional policies of the EU?
  5. What are the Environment policies of the EU? - same here
  6. What are the Educational policies of the EU?
  7. What are the foreign policies of the EU?

Environment

  1. What has been EU's environmental policy over past 5 years?
  2. EU's response to climate change?

Economics

  1. What is the GDP and Growth Rate of the EU?
  2. How is monetary policy governed within the EU?
  3. What can cause the instability of the Euro?
  4. What are trade statistics for the EU?
  5. What is the energy profile of the EU?

Society

  1. Does European Union really bond its members together?
  2. How do European inhabitants feel about EU?
  3. What are the immigration trends to EU for EU and Non-EU citizens?
  4. What present of EU states are satisfied with being a member state?
  5. How "European" are EU citizens and do they share a common identity?

Terrorism

  1. What has been the impact of terrorism on the EU?
  2. How the recent rebirth of radical nationalist movements influences the EU?
  3. European countries are fighting against terrorism but, what about separatist groups like IRA and ETA?

Demographics

  1. What is the population of the EU and how is it distributed?
  2. What are the main religions practiced in the EU?
  3. What are the main languages spoken in the EU?
  4. What are other key demographic statistics for the EU?
  5. What is the level of immigration and emigration?
  6. What are the main issues with changing religion makeup of Europe?

Geopolitics

  1. Do non EU countries prefer to deal with EU or to deal directly with individual members?
  2. Enlargement of EU?
  3. The future of European Union: Managing Globalization
  4. The future of European Union: Future Trends
  5. What is the EU's outlook towards full membership of the Balkans and Turkey?
  6. Can the EU disintegrate like the USSR?
  7. Can EU form a larger economic block with Russia, India and China?
  8. In case that the EU will form a large economic block, what USA would do?
  9. EU and Asia?
  10. EU and India?
  11. EU and China?
  12. EU and Japan?
  13. EU and South Korea?
  14. EU and US?
  15. EU and Canada?
  16. EU and Africa?
  17. EU and Latin America?
  18. EU and Russia?
  19. EU and Middle East?
  20. What role does Africa play for Europe?
  21. What if Primakov's triangle becomes a reality?
  22. Would Russia with its huge gas reserves would like to play a pivotal role in Europe?
  23. How does the world (US, BRICS,etc.,) perceive the EU? Would they want a strong EU?

Driving Forces

Political Driving Forces

Technological Driving Forces

Environmental Driving Forces

Economic Driving Forces

Societal Driving Forces


Scenarios

Scenario Tree for the Future of Europe
Systems Diagram

These are the four scenarios that are likely to be the future of Europe in 2030. Included are two diagrams that indicate our train of thought when trying to come to these scenarios. Each scenario consist of a story that tell about how the future looks in 2030. Following that comes a section that gives all background information, illustrating in detail how this future came to be.

Inference matrix

The Blame Game New Beginning The Gilded Cage
Governance Central (Brussels) Network
Economy Recession Fast Growth Slow Growth
Identity Inward Outward
Immigration Closed Border Open Border As is
Boundary Break Up Expansion Slow Decline
Financial System Socialism Mix Capitalism
Culture Traditional New Mix
Commerce/Trade Restricted Free Free
Resources/Energy Oil&Gas Dependency Push Towards Sustainable Oil&Gas Dependency / Energy Scarcity
Political Alignment Reactive Liberal / Progressive Liberal / Progressive
Population Change Aging-pop Immigration as Driver ?

References

Scenario Reports

Economic Reports & Statistics

News & Other Sources

Presentations

Research Papers and Books

  • Anderson, M. (2000) States and nationalism in Europe. London
  • Bauman, Z., 1989, Modernity and the Holocaust. Cambridge: Polity Press.
  • Bauman, Z., 1993, Postmodern Ethics. Oxford: Blackwell.
  • Bauman, Z., 1991. Modernity and Ambivalence. Cambridge: Polity Press.
  • Bauman., Z., 1995. Life in Fragments: Essays in Postmodern Morality. Oxford: Blackwell.
  • Bauman/Europe: An Unfinished Adventure. Final Proof 18/08/2004
  • Drake, G. (1994) Issues in the new Europe. London
  • Foucher, M. (1995) The new faces of Europe. Strasbourg
  • Hermet, G. (1998) A history of nations and nationalism in Europe. London
  • Lichtenberger, H. (2000) Studying Europe: challenges and prospects for European studies. Baden-Baden
  • Marsden, W.E and V.M. (1989) Going into Europe. Edinburgh
  • Morin, E. (1991) Europa denken. Frankfurt
  • Morris, J. (1998) Fifty years of Europe. London

Videos

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