Future of Russia in 2030
INTRODUCTION
By asking questions about present day Russia and looking at trends, we aim to develop 4 plausible but unconventional scenarios about Russia's future in 2030.
GROUP MEMBERS
Ankit Anand
Chih-Hou Chen
Andrei Grigorian
Mark Pospisilik
Elsa Sheng
RESEARCH QUESTIONS
- Economic Questions
- Political Questions
- Technological Questions
- Foreign Investment Questions
- Racism in Russia
- Demographics
- Miscellaneous
LINKS
1. Putin's Russia: past imperfect, future uncertain, Dale Roy Herspring http://books.google.nl/books?hl=nl&lr=&id=4Y9_fYt9iagC&oi=fnd&pg=PR11&dq=Russia+future&ots=nvGBWNl5X6&sig=sK9ZU5Q7eIwYv1JTDj3GXtIfeSc#v=onepage&q=&f=false
Russia: continuity and change By Gerald Hinteregger, Hans-Georg Heinrich, Hans-Georg Heinrich (Univ.-Doz. Dr.) http://books.google.nl/books?id=1YGJDLpLYWEC&printsec=frontcover&dq=Russia+future&lr=&source=gbs_similarbooks_s&cad=1#v=onepage&q=Russia%20future&f=false
2. http://www.plausiblefutures.com/ Just type Russia in as a keyword and it will give any related news
3. Chances for a Reset in Russian Politics "Russia in Global Affairs". № 2, April - June 2009 By Dmitry Badovsky http://eng.globalaffairs.ru/numbers/27/1274.html
REFERENCE
1.http://eng.globalaffairs.ru/ A journal on foreign affairs and international relations
2.http://www.weforum.org/pdf/GCR09/GCR20092010fullreport.pdf 2009-2010 the Global Competitive Report, take a look at pg.210-pg211
3.https://www.cia.gov/library/publications/the-world-factbook/geos/rs.html
DRIVING FORCES
Political Driving Forces
- The increment degree of corruption and bureaucracy of Government
- Integration into the European Union
- Break down in Russo-Chinese relations
- Instability in the Caucasus
- Improved the relation with the US
Societal Driving Forces
Environmental Driving Forces
Economic Driving Forces
- Increasing value of Nature Resource (Oil, Natural Gas) in Russia
- The Rise of BRIC Economies
- Poor Business Climate
- The post-Kyoto Economy of Russia
Technological Driving Forces
The Increasing Influence of the Internet
DESCRIPTION
According to Jupiter research (2007) there will be 1.5 billion people with Internet access in 2011, with the biggest growth in the online population occurring in Brazil, Russia, India and China. Russia has the fastest growing adoption of Internet users in Europe and has the highest Internet penetration rate among the BRIC economies. The future of any country, Russia included, will depend heavily on how the potential of this revolutionary medium is utilized.
ENABLERS (work in progress)
- Reduced costs and faster connections owing to investments in technology infrastructure
- the rise of social media technologies enabling connectivity and engagement
- Venture capital interest in digital businesses
INHIBITORS
- Privacy concerns (access to private information by companies)
- Political sensitivity to freedom of speech (eg. China, Iran)
PARADIGMS
- Increased Connectivity - flat world
- Increasing influence of the “individual”: the advent of web 2.0 technologies has meant that individuals across the world are more connected, more informed, more visible and in control than ever before.
- Business: Disruptive technologies and methodologies are bringing about a paradigm shift in how the business world operates as well. Entertainment, media, commerce, social interaction are all evolving in a manner where traditional business models need to constantly adapt to the changing landscape.
- Political: The use of emerging media in the 2008 US presidential elections demonstrates the impact and reach of this powerful medium from a political front. The ban on Internet sites like Twitter and Facebook in China demonstrates the uncertainty of how governments are likely to react to the freedom of speech that their people are increasingly becoming accustomed to.
TIMING (WIP)