The Future of Individual Mobility in 2020

Introduction

This page will contain the results of the scenario planning process of group 6 of class RSM EMBA05 on the following subject:

The Future of Individual Mobility in the EU in 2020

Research Questions

1. How will technology affect individual mobility in the next 15 years? - Claudio
   
2. How and where will people spend their leisure time in 2020? - Cuno
   
3. What will be the impact of new technology on time spent in the office? - Eric
   
4. What are current plans of the government regarding major infrastructure projects? - Radjes
   
5. What will be the impact of oil demand and oil prices on individual mobility? - Radjes
   
6. How will an expanded EU with fading borders impact mobility? - Claudio
   
7. If one has to choose between food and shelter versus mobility. What will it be? - Cuno
   
8. What efforts are taken on a political level to influence mobility? (infrastructure, funding, policies) - Radjes
   
9. What is the impact of a change in world trade on mobility? - Radjes
   
10. Will urbanization be ruled by the same principles of today? How will architecture change the landscape of office, home and shopping area? And how will that impact mobility? - Claudio
    
11. Will increased welfare of the individual create an environment that stimulates individual or group mobility? - Claudio
    
12. What would be the impact of the threat of terrorism on infrastructure and control and how would it affect mobility? - Cuno
    
13. How will changes in the demographics of the (expanding) EU impact mobility? - Eric
    
14. Where would be the most congested areas in 2020 - Radjes
    
15. Why would people still find the need to move? - Eric
    
16. What influence on mobility will have the strong consolidation in the European industry? - Claudio
    
17. What will be the influence of more or less free time have on mobility? - Eric
    
18. How will specific taxes influence the mobility of individuals? - Cuno
    
19. How would the economical cycles of growth and recession influence the whay we travel? - Radjes
    
20. Will decentralisation of political decision making improve the mobility issues in urbanised areas? - Cuno
    
21. How will the balance between preservation of the environment be balanced with the increasing need for mobility? - Claudio
    
22. What will be the impact of todays pension system on tomorrows wellfare of the elderly? - Cuno
    
23. What's the cultural impact on mobility? - Eric
    
24. What means of transportation will be used in 2020? - Radjes
    
25. How will environmental stress influence mobility? - Eric
    

Driving Forces

Economic:

Oil Price
Digital Literacy
Emerging economies
Opportunity costs
Inflation and cost of living
Financial structures (eg leasing)
Governmental Incentives

Technological:

Increasing use of broadband internet services with 3G mobile phone
Disruptive Technology: Wireless Local Loop
(Substitutes for)Mobility
The Rapid Increase in WiFi Transmission Rates
fuel technology and efficient motors

Societal:

Change of personal traits
Increasing Mobility
Increasing social isolation
Virtual Integration
Aging population
increase of population-demographics
Globalization and its requirement to travel
Increase of contacts - and therefore friendship - farther away from home
Time and privacy factors
Safety and perceived safety
Lifestyle (Tieners/Students/Yuppies/Families/Retired/Elderly)
Individualisation-'single person households'
intensivation of use of various transport modes

Environmental:

Kyoto treaty
Local Governmental Environmelntal Laws
Unwritten rules of civilization

Political:

disincentivation of car utilization in major cities
Investment in infrastructure
Investment in virtualization
What brings in the money for the sate?
Kyoto treaty
Taxation and allowance of financial structures

Links

Note to group: please add your links to secondary research here:

Ministerie van Verkeer en Waterstaat: Nota Mobiliteit
National Intelligence Council: International Futures Model, Global Trends 2020 and Global Trends 2015
For a better understanding of the world's oil-depletion problem, see Oil Depletion Analysis Centre
RIVM: Effects of a compact urbanisation scenario on passenger mobility [1]
Speech van de minister van Verkeer en Waterstaat, mevrouw T. Netelenbos, voor de opening van de manifestatie Mobiliteit als Uitdaging in Rotterdam op woensdag 9 juni 1999. [2]
Een scenario studie: Omgevingsscenario's en lange termijn verkenning 1995-2020 die momenteel voor Nederland door het CPB wordt gedaan-Radjes:[3]
'Future of the Car' talk highlights MISTI week - [4]
'The future of mobility' Three debates organised by the Transport Research Group at the Bloomberg Auditorium, London - [5]
'A single European Sky' & 'European Aereonautics: EU Vision 2020' - [6]
'The future of mobility: Nokia showcases latest 3G, multimedia and enterprise innovations at CeBIT 2005' - [7]
'The Future of Mobility' Alliance for Global Suistainability - [8]
'Fuel Cells is the Future of Mobility' - [9]
"Road Pricing" Contribution by Plank Holland - [10]
World Economic Forum - Global Risks Topology [11]
World Economic Forum - Risk Report 2005 [12]
Rics Foundation - 2020 Visions of the Future [13] World Tourism Organisation - Changes in leisure time [14]

Other

Both the in class presented and the original messy systems diagrams from the Blackboard group discussion on Friday sept 29, 2005: Media:Systems_Diagram_Future_of_Mobility_Scenario_v0.3.ppt