Future of the European Union in 2030

Team Composition

• Arthur Danzi
• Gudmundur Kristjansson
  
• Mauricio Suzuki
  
• Sameer Agarwal
  
• Sri Hari Krishnan
  

Research Questions

Politics

1. What are the main issues in Europe (other than financial)?
2. Is Europe losing its importance?
3. What role does Africa play for Europe?
4. Is there a chance of a power shift from UK, DE, FR to a new country/region in Europe?
5. What will happen if Turkey is accepted as part of the EU?
6. What is the main driver for the expansion?

Policy

1. How will EU fishing policy change over the next 20 years due to scarcity of fish?
2. How will EU agriculture policy change over the next 20 years?
3. Will high unemployment rate in western EU affect its policy towards a more free market system?
4. Will high unemployment rate in western EU affect its policy towards labor laws?
5. Will EU look beyond Europe for EU like cooperation?

Environment

1. What is the key driver for environmental policy changes for EU the past 5 years?
2. Will the EU change its environmental focus in the next 20 years?

Economics

1. What is the GDP and Growth Rate of the EU?
2. How is monetary policy governed within the EU?
3. What can cause the instability of the Euro?
4. Will the EU change its Economic policy because of the financial crisis in 2007-10?

Society

1. What bounds Europe together?
2. How do European inhabitants feel about the creation of the EU?
3. Will the large immigration numbers affect EU policy towards expansion?
4. What present of EU states are satisfied with being a member state?
5. How "European" are EU citizens and do they share a common identity?

Terrorism

1. What has been the impact of terrorism on the EU?
2. How the recent rebirth of radical nationalist movements can influence the future of EU?
3. European countries are fighting against terrorism but, what about separatist groups like IRA and ETA?

Demographics

1. What are the main demographic characteristics of the EU?
2. What are the main issues with changing religion makeup of Europe?
3. What will be the main issues with the ageing population of the western EU states?

Geopolitics

1. What is the EU's outlook towards full membership of the Balkans and Turkey?
2. Would EU disintegrate like the USSR?
3. Can EU form a larger economic block with Russia, India and China?
4. In case that the EU will form a large economic block, what USA would do?
5. If Iceland will be the 29th member state, will it cause any friction between the EU and other application states?
6. How will EU and China relationship develop?
7. How will EU and India relationship develop?
8. How will EU and US relationship develop?
9. How will EU and North Africa relationship develop?
10. What if Primakov's triangle becomes a reality?
11. Would Russia with its huge gas reserves would like to play a pivotal role in Europe?
12. How does the world (US, BRICS,etc.,) perceive the EU? Would they want a strong EU?

EU & Europe Definitions

1. What is the definition of Europe?
2. What is the Euro zone?
3. What is the history of the European Union?
4. How is the European parliament elected?
5. How is the European parliament structured?

Infrastructure

1. Does the EU need to focus on new infrastructure approaches?

Driving Forces

Political Driving Forces

1. World Unification
2. Threat of war

Technological Driving Forces

1. Public attitude to science and technology
2. Mobility
3. Nanotechnology

Environmental Driving Forces

1. Greenhouse gases emissions trading affecting production in the EU
2. Scarcity of Water in the EU
3. Increasing need to clean energy

Economic Driving Forces

1. EU ambitions for economic growth, as expressed in the Lisbon Declaration.
2. Threat of total financial meltdown

Societal Driving Forces

1. EU view of itself – culturally diverse or seeking homogeneity – with the associated political implications
2. Increasing Mobility
3. Aging population
4. Changes in Religion buildup of Europe

References

Scenario Reports

1. NIC Europe 2020 - Scenarios - Workshop Date: April 28-29, 2004 - Venue: Budapest, Hungary
2. New Technology Wave – Scenarios for Europe in 2020 (pdf)
3. European Energy to 2020 - A scenario approach (pdf)
4. Water Scenarios for Europe and for Neighbouring States

News & Other Sources

1. Trends and drivers of change in the EU energy sector: Scenarios
2. Economic Problems of European Union
3. Immigration Problems in EU
4. Immigration in the European Union: problem or solution?