What are the energy trends in Inida and China?

Answer

China’s and India’s importance in world energy will continue to grow steadily over the coming decades, reflecting rapid economic development, industrialisation, urbanisation and improved quality of life. In the Reference Scenario, primary energy needs expand at an average annual rate of 3.2% in China and 3.6% in India – much faster than in the rest of the world. Together, they account for 45% of the increase in world energy demand through to 2030.

All primary fuels except biomass see continuing growth in demand in both countries over the projection period. Their conomies remain heavily dependent on coal, mostly produced indigenously. By the end of the projection period, coal – used mainly in power stations – makes up 59% of the two countries’ combined energy use, up from 57% in 2005. Oil demand also grows swiftly in both countries. Their combined oil use increases from 9.3 mb/d in 2005 to 23.1 mb/d in 2030 – growth of 3.7% per year and 42% of the global increase in oil demand in 2005-2030.

Chinese and Indian output of coal expands over the Outlook period, but not quickly enough to keep pace with demand. Coal imports rise markedly in India, while China emerged as a net importer in 2007, and its imports are projected to reach 92 Mtce in 2030. Oil production falls between now and 2030 in both China and India. Consequently, net imports surge, from 3.5 mb/d in 2006 to 13.1 mb/d in 2030 in China and from 1.9 mb/d to 6 mb/d in India.

In the Alternative Policy Scenario, energy demand in China and India grows more slowly as existing government policies to curb demand growth are enforced more strictly and new policies now being discussed are introduced. Primary demand expands by 0.7 percentage points less per year in China and 0.8 points less in India than in the Reference Scenario. In both countries, coal demand falls most thanks to more efficient coal-burning technology, especially in power stations, and switching to less arbon-intensive fuels and zero-carbon technologies, including nuclear power and renewables.

In the High Growth Scenario, by contrast, faster economic development drives energy demand higher. In China, primary energy demand in 2030 is nearly a quarter higher than in the Reference Scenario.In India, the increase is 16%. Coal and oil account for most of the increase in both countries’ primary energy demand. Together, China and India account for 54% of the increase in world primary energy demand between 2005 and 2030 in the High Growth Scenario.

Reference

IEA, World Energy Outlook 2007, China and India Insights.