The Future of Individual Mobility in 2020
Introduction
This page will contain the results of the scenario planning process of group 6 of class RSM EMBA05 on the following subject:
The Future of Individual Mobility in the EU in 2020
Research Questions
- How will technology affect individual mobility in the next 15 years? - Claudio
- How and where will people spend their leisure time in 2020? - Cuno
- Will people still spend the majority of their working hours in the office (virtualisation)? - Eric
- What are current plans of the government regarding major infrastructure projects? - Radjes
- What will be the impact of oil demand and oil prices on individual mobility? - Radjes
- How will an expanded EU with fading borders impact mobility? - Claudio
- If one has to choose between food and shelter versus mobility. What will it be? - Cuno
- What efforts are taken on a political level to influence mobility? (infrastructure, funding, policies) - Radjes
- What is the impact of a change in world trade on mobility? - Radjes
- Will urbanization be ruled by the same principles of today? How will architecture change the landscape of office, home and shopping area? And how will that impact mobility? - Claudio
- Will increased welfare of the individual create an environment that stimulates individual or group mobility? - Claudio
- What would be the impact of the threat of terrorism on infrastructure and control and how would it affect mobility? - Cuno
- How will changes in the demographics of the (expanding) EU impact mobility? - Eric
- Where would be the most congested areas in 2020 - Radjes
- Why would people still find the need to move? - Eric
- What influence on mobility will have the strong consolidation in the European industry? - Claudio
- What will be the influence of more or less free time have on mobility? - Eric
- How will specific taxes influence the mobility of individuals? - Cuno
- How would the economical cycles of growth and recession influence the whay we travel? - Radjes
- Will decentralisation of political decision making improve the mobility issues in urbanised areas? - Cuno
- How will the balance between preservation of the environment be balanced with the increasing need for mobility? - Claudio
- What will be the impact of todays pension system on tomorrows wellfare of the elderly? - Cuno
- What's the cultural impact on mobility? - Eric
- What means of transportation will be used in 2020? - Radjes
- How will environmental stress influence mobility? - Eric
Driving Forces
Economic:
Oil Price
Digital Literacy
Emerging economies
Opportunity costs
Inflation and cost of living
Financial structures (eg leasing)
Governmental Incentives
Technological:
Development of 3G techonology
Disruptive Technology: Wireless Local Loop
(Substitutes for)Mobility
The Rapid Increase in WiFi Transmission Rates
fuel technology and efficient motors
Societal:
Change of personal traits
Increasing Mobility
Increasing social isolation
Virtual Integration
Aging population
increase of population-demographics
Globalization and its requirement to travel
Increase of contacts - and therefore friendship - farther away from home
Time and privacy factors
Safety and perceived safety
Lifestyle (Tieners/Students/Yuppies/Families/Retired/Elderly)
Individualisation-'single person households'
intensivation of use of various transport modes
Environmental:
Kyoto treaty
Local Governmental Environmelntal Laws
Unwritten rules of civilization
Political:
disincentivation of car utilization in major cities
Investment in infrastructure
Investment in virtualization
What brings in the money for the sate?
Kyoto treaty
Taxation and allowance of financial structures
Links
Note to group: please add your links to secondary research here:
Ministerie van Verkeer en Waterstaat: Nota Mobiliteit
National Intelligence Council:
International Futures Model, Global Trends 2020 and Global Trends 2015
For a better understanding of the world's oil-depletion problem, see Oil Depletion Analysis Centre
RIVM: Effects of a compact urbanisation scenario on passenger mobility
[1]
Speech van de minister van Verkeer en Waterstaat, mevrouw T. Netelenbos, voor de opening van de manifestatie Mobiliteit als Uitdaging in Rotterdam op woensdag 9 juni 1999.
[2]
Een scenario studie: Omgevingsscenario's en lange termijn verkenning 1995-2020 die momenteel voor Nederland door het CPB wordt gedaan-Radjes:[3]
'Future of the Car' talk highlights MISTI week - [4]
'The future of mobility' Three debates organised by the Transport Research Group at the Bloomberg Auditorium, London - [5]
'A single European Sky' & 'European Aereonautics: EU Vision 2020' - [6]
'The future of mobility: Nokia showcases latest 3G, multimedia and enterprise innovations at CeBIT 2005' - [7]
'The Future of Mobility' Alliance for Global Suistainability - [8]
'Fuel Cells is the Future of Mobility' - [9]
"Road Pricing" Contribution by Plank Holland - [10]
Other
Gartner:
"By 2008, 41 million corporate employees globally will spend at least one day a week teleworking, and 100 million will work from home at least one day a month"; see "Teleworking: The Quiet Revolution" on gartner.com
"By 2015, wirelessly networked sensors in everything we own will form a new Web."; see "Extracting Value From the Massively Connected World
of 2015" on gartner.com
The original systems diagram taken form the Blackboard group discussion on Friday sept 29, 2005: