The Future of Individual Mobility in 2020

Introduction

This page will contain the results of the scenario planning process of group 6 of class RSM EMBA05 on the following subject:

The Future of Individual Mobility in 2020

Research Questions

1. Which technologies will affect individual mobility in the next 10 years and what will be the impact of these technologies on mobility?
   
2. How and where will people spend their leisure time in 2015?
   
3. What are the major destinations for vacation in 2015?
   
4. Will people still spend the majority of their working hours in the office?
   
5. How will congestion develop in the next 15 years?
   
6. What are current plans of the government regarding major infrastructure projects?
   
7. What will be the impact of oil demand and oil prices on individual mobility?
8. How will an expanded EU with fading borders impact mobility?- Radjes
   
9. If one has to choose between food and shelter versus mobility. What will it be?-Radjes
   
10. What efforts are taken on a political level to influence mobility?-Radjes
    
11. What is the impact of a declining world trade on mobility?-Radjes
    
12. How will architecture change the landscape of office, home and shopping area? And how will that impact mobility?
    
13. Will individual economical growth create an environment that stimulates indovidual or group mobility?
    
14. What would be the impact of the threat of terrorism on infrastructure and control and how would it affect mobility?
    
15. How would virtualization affect mobility?
    
16. Will the population of Europe grow, stabilize or decline? In which parameter? In wich geographies?
    
17. Where would be the most congested areas?
    
18. Will urbanization be ruled by the same principles of today?
    
19. Why would people still find the need to move?
    
20. What drives governors, mayors and politicians to chose for a certain mobility route versus another? Is it increase in population, increase of businesses in their region or increase of natural parks etc.?
    
21. What influence on mobility will have the strong consolidation in the European industry?
    
22. How will the aging of the European population influence the mobility?
    
23. What will be the influence of more or less free time have on mobility?
    
24. How will tax inflication influence the mobility of induviduals?
    

Driving Forces

Economic:

Oil Price
Digital Literacy
Emerging economies

Technological:

Development of 3G techonology
Disruptive Technology: Wireless Local Loop
Mobility
The Rapid Increase in WiFi Transmission Rates
high efficent fuels and motors

Societal:

Change of personal traits
Increasing Mobility
Increasing social isolation
Virtual Integration
Aging population
increase of population-demographics

Environmental:

Links

Note to group: please add your links to secondary research here:

Ministerie van Verkeer en Waterstaat: Nota Mobiliteit
National Intelligence Council: International Futures Model, Global Trends 2020 and Global Trends 2015
For a better understanding of the world's oil-depletion problem, see Oil Depletion Analysis Centre
RIVM: Effects of a compact urbanisation scenario on passenger mobility [1]
Speech van de minister van Verkeer en Waterstaat, mevrouw T. Netelenbos, voor de opening van de manifestatie Mobiliteit als Uitdaging in Rotterdam op woensdag 9 juni 1999. [2]
Een scenario studie: Omgevingsscenario's en lange termijn verkenning 1995-2020 die momenteel voor Nederland door het CPB wordt gedaan-Radjes:[3]

Other

Gartner:

"By 2008, 41 million corporate employees globally will spend at least one day a week teleworking, and 100 million will work from home at least one day a month"; see "Teleworking: The Quiet Revolution" on gartner.com
"By 2015, wirelessly networked sensors in everything we own will form a new Web."; see "Extracting Value From the Massively Connected World of 2015" on gartner.com