Scenario 3: Sleeping Chameleon

2011 - Technology Boom

In 2011 there is a technological breakthrough in positioning systems. The major players have announced the availability of a new device which enables u to receive the signal indoor. At the other hand ESA has managed to both calculate the distance horizontal and vertical. This is a major boost for positioning systems. That means the distance can be measured both on the ground as in the air. The business analysts are claiming another 10% increase of LBS in B2B markets. The government is investing a huge amount of money to fit out the army equipment like JFSs with receivers. As a result of not a mature billing system the LBS providers are still suffering. Only big players are surviving and the smaller companies are going bankrupt, merge or are taken over by the big players. Because of air pollution and still increasing oil prices (less rapidly than before) the government is forced to introduce tolling on the major highways. Besides that the Betuwelijn (transportation) and HSL (public transport) will be finish by then which makes transportation costs relatively cheaper than using car or truck.

2008 - The Launch

ESA announces in 2008 that all the 30 Galileo satellites are launched successfully. The signals have a worldwide coverage. By this time still not all the mobile devices are equipped with integrated receivers. The availability of the signals outdoors encourages all the companies worldwide to develop new LBS and the major portable devices manufacturers build on new generation of portable devices which is fitted out with positioning system receivers. The current accuracy of seven meters and the unavailability of the signals in indoor areas strict the LBS providers to develop only navigation based variety of LBS. The LBS providers are forced to keep improving the maps to compensate it with the less accurate signals. The major usage of LBS is currently limited to navigation systems however there are some new services offered like the dating/on the spot advertisement by two of Leiden University students. They have introduced a new business model which generates revenue from B2B market by providing services to B2C market. According to Gartner Group there will be more companies who will copy the same business model in other niches however they predict there will be some major privacy issues. The consumers have still mixed feelings about the fact that they could be tracked and traced.

2010 - Consumer Resistance

ESA announces in 2010 that there is a accuracy of 3 cm realized. By now there is a 30% increase of LBS in both B2B as B2C markets. The analyses show that although there is a huge amount of LBS, the consumers are not willing to use those services. According to business analysts this is caused by privacy concerns, high fuel price, health issues, billing process and finally the high prices charged for particular services. The fuel prices has reached 5 euros a liter which discourages the people to make use of their cars and thus making use of LBS. The university of Leiden has just published a scientific research about the health consequences of using LBS. The ‘Consumenten Bond’ has taken the advice of the research group and warns the consumers about these health issues. The consumers are only willing to use LBS for only practical purposes. The new introduced services are in the first place experienced as not value adding or are too expensive. Besides that the billing system for instant services are not clear to the customers. The consumers still don’t use the billing process (like ChipKnip). The prices charged for the not commodity services are relatively high. The forecasts for 2011 show that some major companies are introducing a device which enables availability of signals indoor.