RSM EMBA 2009 Scenarios

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The Future of Hospitals in Amsterdam in 2020

The Future of R&D in Pharmaceutical Industry in 2025

The Future of Corporate Websites in Europe 2015

The Future of Maritime trade in 2020 and the implications for the port of Amsterdam

Oil Production 2030


Friday November 6, 2009 from 17.00 - 21.00

The DTN, Prinsengracht 707, 1017 JW Amsterdam

Will attend

Peter Hoppesteyn
Jetske Tamboezer
Ruth Donners (no alcohol, no pork meat)
Michael Aouad
Marjoleine van der Zwan
Miranda Tjiang
Roel Kock (shoarma pizza... )
Shirley Yuen
Seda Demircioglu
Daniel Peters (deep pan pizza)
Mirjam Terhorst (only 1-1.5 hrs, no pizza)
Mihai Andreoiu
David Verberne (Normal pizza,quattro stagioni)
Andreas Schuil
Phil Poetter
Murat Akguc (no food + will join around 17:45)

Will not attend

Rosalie Kuyvenhoven
Maria Marcos
Eduard de Visser
Peter Friedl
Jose Nunes

Guest Speaker

Former Shell Netherlands CEO, and Senator Rein Willems presented his personal perspectives on the use of scenarios in Shell over the last two decades. Media: ShellScenarioReflection.PPT


50% Group work (final scenarios)
40% Individual work (survey, learning log, driving forces, strategic challenge)
10% Class participation (virtual and physical)

Final Scenario Evaluation Criteria

Based on the full time MBA viewing of the existing scenarios, please add to this list as you see fit.

  • Scenarios will be considered to be of high quality if they contain the following:
  • Solid assumptions and data reasoning
  • Rich, thought-provoking ideas
  • Beyond the obvious, assumption breaking ideas
  • Scenarios that are linked to driving forces/factors
  • Scenarios, driving factors, and ideas that are relevant to the issue (and related stakeholders)
  • Scenarios with clear names
  • Logical flow with visual representations of the thought process
  • Plausible scenarios
  • Balanced scenarios (1/4, 1/4, 1/4, 1/4)--all of the scenarios should be equally likely
  • Surprising scenarios
  • Detailed stories that enable the reader to follow the logic of the thought process
  • Conclusive within themselves

Short movie on numbers that matter

Driving Forces

As an individual define 2 driving forces and improve 2 driving forces in the Driving Forces section

Learning Log

Make a map of your learning process by picking variables
group process: group roles (interchange), advocacy-listening, who talks the most, cultural
personal development: reflexivity, emotions, difficulty
content: subjective view of possible futures, many/few, divergence/convergence, deductive thinking, inductive thinking, sites visited,

learning: key learning moments, insights

Write a less than 3000 word essay on your learning in the course

Learning Maps

Seda Demircioglu
Ruth Donners
Maria Marcos
Phil Poetter
Jetske Tamboezer
Daniel Peters
Joost d'Hooghe
Peter Hoppesteyn
Eduard de Visser
David Verberne

Learning Essays

Rosalie Kuyvenhoven
Murat Akguc