Future of Russia in 2030

INTRODUCTION

hi, i put some topic i can think now under the driving forces. I only did one economic and one environmental forces now. i am not quite sure the way it is. Andrei, i paste your work under the sub headline. Chihhou

GROUP MEMBERS

Ankit Anand
Chih-Hou Chen
Andrei Grigorian
Mark Pospisilik
Elsa Sheng

RESEARCH QUESTIONS

1. Economic Questions
2. Political Questions
3. Technological Questions
4. Foreign Investment Questions
5. Racism in Russia
6. Demographics
7. Miscellaneous

Economic

1. What are competitive advantages of Russia as a country?

2. Except for the nature resources, what are others strengths of the country?

3. How does Russia position itself as a country? Eg: IT cluster/ nature resources

4. For Russia, is the energy a political tool?

5. Now Russia also aims at technology development, is it a strategic goal?

6. How many resources are there left in Russia (current estimates)

7. What percentage of GDP from Russian exports goes towards infrastructure and development? Where is it invested?

8. What does the Russian federal government spend money on? What are the spending priorities?

9. Has there been any infrastructure and development in rural Russia? Has the life improved?

10. Why is Moscow one of the most expensive cities in the world?

11. Will Russia’s dependency on oil bring about the same collapse as occurred in Soviet Union?

12. Is there a free market system operating in Russia?

13. What is the degree of state control of business?

14. What is the corruption picture? What effects does corruption have on the development of countries in general and Russia in particular?

15. If there was no oil tomorrow, how could Russia compete?

16. What other promising sectors are developing in Russia? If any at all?

17. Besides oil, gas, army, what is the other big things for Russia?

18. How to the government spend the oil money?

19. What is the most important aspect of government spending? Education, Healthcare, aged population?

20. Will there be greater disparity between the wealthy and poor?

Trade and Foreign investment

23. For each of the major natural resource exports from Russia, what proportion of the global supply is controlled by Russia?

24. What is the level of foreign investment in Russia? Which industries receive foreign investment?

25. What are Russia’s biggest imports?

26. Who are Russia’s biggest trading partners?

Political

1. The wars happened between Russia and its neighbors (Georgia/ Russia)

2. Does Medvedev have any control over the government?

3. Is Putin really behind everything that goes on in Russian politics at the moment?

4. Why does Russian want to control Chechnya?

5. Look at what the relationship is with Ramzan Kadyrov.

6. What was behind the conflict in Georgia?

7. Is Russia going to continue this policy towards its regional neighbours?

8. What happened in Ukraine?

9. Why is Russia paranoid about former Soviet bloc countries being absorbed into the E.U?

10. What is Russia’s official and unofficial stance on relationship with EU, US, China, India, Brazil?

11. What is Russia’s strategic intentions?

12. Remain local power and build up a buffer?

13. Does Russia want to see a situation similar to USSR? Regain its lost power?

15. What role do Muslims play in Russian history – Kazan (example of autonomous republic)

16. Terrorism – just a tool for Russia to make more draconian laws? (US parallel)

17. Role of terrorism on development in Russia

18. Role of Stalin and personality cult today?

19. Putin’s image – personality cult?

20. Opposition to Putin/Medvedev – does it exist?

21. What has happened to opposition in the past?

22. Abramovich – What is his relationship with politicians and Putin in particular?

23. What is the foreign policy of Russia regards to China, US, EU?

24. Is Russia an autocracy?

25. What is the role of the FSB, does the governmet have control over them?

26. How many ex-KGB employees are currently serving in a public role?

27. How likely is a change in constitution?

28. Will Putin be re-elected as President?

29. How much influence does Russia have over its former satellites? What is the source of that influence?

30. How high is the level of corruption in Russia? Is it institutionalized?

Racism in Russia

27. Does it play a role in politics? If so, what?

28. Racism in Russia – how advanced is it?

29. How do you explain resurgence of fascism in a country which fought against Nazism?

Technology

1. What is the science and technology focus for Russia, military weapons?

2. Does Russia have any globally recognized technology clusters? Centers of research excellence?

3. Does Russia have any federal initiatives to develop/import technologies?

Demographics

5. What is the rate of alcoholism in Russia?

6. Death rate?

7. Is the population getting smaller?

8. What impact will this have on the country?

9. Role of Muslim population in Russia?

10. Is the population of Russia getting less?

11. Immigration policy? Laws to do with immigration.

12. What is the median age of Russia?

13. Is there net immigration to Russia? Net emigration from Russia? Where to? Or where from?

14. What is the level of internet usage/penetration in Russia?

Miscellaneous

1. Will Russia regain its status as world super power?

4. What do Russian people most need in 2030? Better Income, health, or other?

5. How highly ranked are Russian educational institutions?

6. How much interaction/contact do Russian researchers/students have with foreign researchers/students?

LINKS

1. Putin's Russia: past imperfect, future uncertain, Dale Roy Herspring http://books.google.nl/books?hl=nl&lr=&id=4Y9_fYt9iagC&oi=fnd&pg=PR11&dq=Russia+future&ots=nvGBWNl5X6&sig=sK9ZU5Q7eIwYv1JTDj3GXtIfeSc#v=onepage&q=&f=false

Russia: continuity and change By Gerald Hinteregger, Hans-Georg Heinrich, Hans-Georg Heinrich (Univ.-Doz. Dr.) http://books.google.nl/books?id=1YGJDLpLYWEC&printsec=frontcover&dq=Russia+future&lr=&source=gbs_similarbooks_s&cad=1#v=onepage&q=Russia%20future&f=false

2. http://www.plausiblefutures.com/ Just type Russia in as a keyword and it will give any related news

3. Chances for a Reset in Russian Politics "Russia in Global Affairs". № 2, April - June 2009 By Dmitry Badovsky http://eng.globalaffairs.ru/numbers/27/1274.html

REFERENCE

1.http://eng.globalaffairs.ru/ A journal on foreign affairs and international relations

2.http://www.weforum.org/pdf/GCR09/GCR20092010fullreport.pdf 2009-2010 the Global Competitive Report, take a look at pg.210-pg211

3.https://www.cia.gov/library/publications/the-world-factbook/geos/rs.html

DRIVING FORCES

Political Driving Forces

1. The increment degree of corruption and bureaucracy of Government
2. The trend of geopolitics--integration to EU

Societal Driving Forces

1. Decline of the Russian population
2. The wider gap between poor and rich

Environmental Driving Forces

1. Enforcement of Environmental policy in Russia
2. Increasing need to clean energy

Economic Driving Forces

1. Increasing value of Nature Resource (Oil, Natural Gas) in Russia
2. The Rise of BRIC Economies

SCENARIOS

1. 1. Axis: Greater Freedom vs Greater Authority and State Control
2. 2. Scenario 2
3. 3. Scenario 3
4. 4. Scenario 4