Frozen Time/ Time Machine
Time machine is a scenario which describes a possible direction of future TV development which will remain at the same situation at 2015 with today. And in this scenario, people will mainly also use the traditional TV in 2015.
2008: the overage of Internet accessing is increasing all over the world. In some big cities even the wireless can cover the entire area. The purchase of related devices such as computer, laptop, and mobile phone is enlarging with a high speed. The development of wireless use is quickly in this year because there are the technical support and relative devices innovation, more and more people start focusing on the portability characteristic of the entertainment devices. Therefore, the need for the Internet TV and mobile TV has an increasing growing market share. However, at this time the quality of Internet services is not good, and can not supply enough broadband for people to enjoying high quality TV through Internet. People using the Internet or wireless accessing should pay a lot of money each month. Just some young people like watching Internet TV or mobile TV especially when they travelling, and as the place limited of traditional TV content, some people who in foreign countries use it when they want to what the TV program of their home counties. So most of people also choose to use traditional TV. In 2008, the development of IPTV does not have some trend of development, just limits the broadcasting suppliers and users because people want TV should pay more money than the traditional one. Additionally, because of the increasing price of oil and some major companies have bankrupt especially in USA; the economic situation is not good all around the world.
2009: with the influence of economy recession, fewer companies want to invest large amount of money in a new developing industry. Internet and mobile TV need a higher broadband quality support to enable a better TV quality. But it is hard to have enough investment to realize it. The advertisement companies also do not want to spend their money on the Internet TV and mobile TV under the economic crisis because the main users use traditional TV. For the IPTV, without reducing its using price, it does not likely to develop.
2010: without the investment, the Intent services do not likely to improve their poor infrastructure, which lead to remaining the situation of poor quality of Internet and mobile TV program, people start refuse to pay that monthly fee. So the number of people using Internet TV and mobile TV will be decreased. Along with it, less advertisement companies will promote their products through them.
2011: it will be clear that the development of Internet and mobile TV is not good, and have the trend to diminish if they can not find the way to facilitate the investment on it. The companies all over the world will suffer from the economic crisis. It seams it is impossible to change the situation at that time. People’s demand of high quality of Internet and mobile TV can not be realized, more and more people do not want to pay for it, so they choose use the Internet as less as possible, just for some common use. The demand of traditional TV still is increasing. Most companies want to invest in it, also the advertising companies still use it as the main channel for products promotion.
2012: the governments focus on the phenomena of the development of Internet using diminishes, and try to give some support through regulation and investment. Therefore the using of Internet becomes cheaper. The technology of IPTV is still keep the same level with the previous years because of no demand increasing. Its customers do not loss but it is hard for it to attract more.
2013: no matter the possible investment companies, but also the manufactures and broadcasting companies feel that the Internet TV and mobile TV will not have market share. They begin pay as little attention as possible on them. So there will be less Internet and mobile TV suppliers, and the content will be less. Also the Mobile manufacturers will loss interest on innovate their products with the function to support good quality mobile TV.
2014: though the investment of governments, the price of Internet is much lower than ever before. Because the global economy is still not good, most governments still need to invest into other industries to help them overcome the economic crisis. Therefore, the development of Internet and mobile TV do not be realized.
2015: the TV in this time is still remaining the same with the year around 2008; just the TV sets are improved with good style and quality. Most people also use traditional TV. With the help of government, the Internet using becomes free, but broadband does not been improved. So there are still just a small number of people using Internet and mobile TV. The use of TPTV remains the same level all the time.
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