Difference between revisions of "ASSIST 2005 Group 1 Uncertainties"

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== '''(1) 42 possible uncertainties''' ==
== '''(1) 44 possible uncertainties''' ==




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42. home network technology
42. home network technology


== '''(2) 20 tentative questions to be answered - selected from 42 uncertainties''' ==
43. Uniformed Currency ex) AU as in EU
 
44. ROK - India Relationship
 
== '''(2) 20 tentative questions to be answered - selected from 44 uncertainties''' ==




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11. Data show that by 2050, population of elderly will take up to 40% of the entire population. Consequently, Korean society will be composed of the largest old population among OECD countries. The phenomenon of aging society is caused by rapid advancement of bio-chemical and medical industries/technologies and low fertility. Surely, such change in social demography will influence every corner of Korean society. Please establish a scenario in terms of Korean society’s future demography (the aging society).  
11. Data show that by 2050, population of elderly will take up to 40% of the entire population. Consequently, Korean society will be composed of the largest old population among OECD countries. The phenomenon of aging society is caused by rapid advancement of bio-chemical and medical industries/technologies and low fertility. Surely, such change in social demography will influence every corner of Korean society. Please establish a scenario in terms of Korean society’s future demography (the aging society).  


www.freenorthkorea.net/archives/freenorthkorea/000933.html
http://www.freenorthkorea.net/archives/freenorthkorea/000933.html


www.nihonkaigaku.org/ham/eacoex/100econ/110step/111pop/aging/e_aging.html
http://www.nihonkaigaku.org/ham/eacoex/100econ/110step/111pop/aging/e_aging.html


www.newsworld.co.kr/cont/0411/56.html
http://www.newsworld.co.kr/cont/0411/56.html


www.un.org/esa/population/publications/popdecline/kim.pdf
http://www.un.org/esa/population/publications/popdecline/kim.pdf


www.blackwell-synergy.com/links/doi/10.1111/j.1447-0594.2004.00146.x/abs/
http://www.blackwell-synergy.com/links/doi/10.1111/j.1447-0594.2004.00146.x/abs/


www.hani.co.kr/section-004000000/2004/10/004000000200410011406604.html
http://www.hani.co.kr/section-004000000/2004/10/004000000200410011406604.html


www.cpb.or.kr/textdata/HOMEPAGE/200102/0100032/200101.pdf
http://www.cpb.or.kr/textdata/HOMEPAGE/200102/0100032/200101.pdf


times.hankooki.com/lpage/special/200310/kt2003103020290739750.htm
http://times.hankooki.com/lpage/special/200310/kt2003103020290739750.htm


times.hankooki.com/lpage/opinion/200504/kt2005040720022754300.htm
http://times.hankooki.com/lpage/opinion/200504/kt2005040720022754300.htm


static.highbeam.com/k/koreatimesseoulkorea/july142000/editorialagingsocietyeditorial/
http://static.highbeam.com/k/koreatimesseoulkorea/july142000/editorialagingsocietyeditorial/


12. The number  
12. The number  
of Korean youngsters leaving Korea seeking for better education is exponentially increasing every year even to a point that the foreign spending on education contributes significantly to increase in government deficit. If the trend continues, Korea’s future may suffer from the shortage of educated human resources. What are the fundamental problems of Korean education system? And how will it be improved to meet the standard and needs of Korean parents?  
of Korean youngsters leaving Korea to seek for better education is exponentially increasing every year even to a point that the foreign spending on education abroad contributes significantly to the increase in government deficit. If the trend continues, Korea’s future may suffer from the shortage of educated human resources. What are the fundamental problems of Korean education system? And how will it be improved to meet the standard and needs of Korean parents?  


www.moe.go.kr/en/down/edu-ko-b-c2.pdf
http://www.moe.go.kr/en/down/edu-ko-b-c2.pdf


www.lifeinkorea.com/Information/education.cfm
http://www.lifeinkorea.com/Information/education.cfm


www.korea.net/Search/Directory/DirView.asp?code=h002
http://www.korea.net/Search/Directory/DirView.asp?code=h002


yuhak.interedu.go.kr/study/system.html
http://yuhak.interedu.go.kr/study/system.html


reference.allrefer.com/country-guide-study/south-korea/south-korea72.html
http://reference.allrefer.com/country-guide-study/south-korea/south-korea72.html


times.hankooki.com/.../200402/kt2004022316593811490.htm&ur=times.hankooki.com&fo=print_kt.htm
http://times.hankooki.com/.../200402/kt2004022316593811490.htm&ur=times.hankooki.com&fo=print_kt.htm
    
    
13.Korean society has been greatly influenced by Confucius values which, among many others, pursue gender differences. The deeply embedded notion of gender inequality established different gender status in Korea. However, as Western values were introduced, gender role and status have gradually changed. With increasing importance of female role in society, one may predict that Korean society in 10 years will be a totally opposite situation compared to 1990s. Please predict the future of Korean society in terms of male/female status.  
13.Korean society has been greatly influenced by Confucius values which, among many others, pursue gender differences. The deeply embedded notion of gender inequality established different gender status in Korea. However, as Western values were introduced, gender role and status have gradually changed. With increasing importance of female role in society, one may predict that Korean society in 10 years will be a totally opposite situation compared to the 1990s. Please predict the future of Korean society in terms of male/female status.  


www.winkorea.or.kr/lecture_img/1000/31/J.R.Yoon.doc
http://www.winkorea.or.kr/lecture_img/1000/31/J.R.Yoon.doc


www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/entrez/query.fcgi?cmd=Retrieve&db=PubMed&list_uids=12295268&dopt=Abstract
http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/entrez/query.fcgi?cmd=Retrieve&db=PubMed&list_uids=12295268&dopt=Abstract


times.hankooki.com/lpage/  
http://times.hankooki.com/lpage/  
opinion/200505/kt2005051816021654050.htm
http://opinion/200505/kt2005051816021654050.htm


www.religion.ucsb.edu/projects/  
http://www.religion.ucsb.edu/projects/  


newpluralism/Confucian%20Korea.doc
http://newpluralism/Confucian%20Korea.doc


sociology.snu.ac.kr/isdpr/  
http://sociology.snu.ac.kr/isdpr/  


publication/journal/27-2/3Suni%20Lee.pdf
http://publication/journal/27-2/3Suni%20Lee.pdf


www.women21.or.kr/data/women21/  
http://www.women21.or.kr/data/women21/  


EngPDS_X/mixed%20civil%20society.doc
http://EngPDS_X/mixed%20civil%20society.doc


14.Korea boasts the highest rate of high-speed internet use among OECD countries. Such advancement in internet benefits Korea in many ways; however, it has also shown numerous negative aspects. One of the phenomenons is a rapid spread of online media which is gradually replacing offline media. Perhaps in 10 years, Korean society will face too much dependence in online media. Please build a scenario in terms of online media dependency.  
14.Korea boasts the highest rate of high-speed internet use among OECD countries. Such advancement in internet benefits Korea in many ways; however, it has also shown numerous negative aspects. One of the phenomenons is a rapid spread of online media which is gradually replacing offline media. Perhaps in 10 years, Korean society will face too much dependence in online media. Please build a scenario in terms of online media dependency.  


www.asiamedia.ucla.edu/article.asp?parentid=20160
http://www.asiamedia.ucla.edu/article.asp?parentid=20160


www.asiamedia.ucla.edu/article.asp?parentid=9693
http://www.asiamedia.ucla.edu/article.asp?parentid=9693


www.why-war.com/news/2004/01/01/internet.html
http://www.why-war.com/news/2004/01/01/internet.html


www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/entrez/query.fcgi?cmd=Retrieve&db=PubMed&list_uids=12804026&dopt=Abstract
http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/entrez/query.fcgi?cmd=Retrieve&db=PubMed&list_uids=12804026&dopt=Abstract


www.liebertonline.com/doi/abs/10.1089/109493103321640338
http://www.liebertonline.com/doi/abs/10.1089/109493103321640338


www.kisa.or.kr/english/trend/2002/trend_20020414_01.html
http://www.kisa.or.kr/english/trend/2002/trend_20020414_01.html




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15. Current Korean politics show a conflict between left and right wing parties. Under President Noh Moo-Hyun’s administration, Korean political seemed more skewed to the left. In 2007, there will be a presidential election, and everybody expects another political battle between the left and right wing parties. Please predict Korea’s political situation in 2015 considering numerous national and international issues.
15. Current Korean politics show a conflict between left and right wing parties. Under President Noh Moo-Hyun’s administration, Korean political seemed more skewed to the left. In 2007, there will be a presidential election, and everybody expects another political battle between the left and right wing parties. Please predict Korea’s political situation in 2015 considering numerous national and international issues.


www.economist.com/countries/SouthKorea/profile.cfm?folder=ProfilePolitical%20Structure
http://www.economist.com/countries/SouthKorea/profile.cfm?folder=ProfilePolitical%20Structure


www.economist.com/countries/SouthKorea/
http://www.economist.com/countries/SouthKorea/


times.hankooki.com/.../200402/kt2004022320362311490.htm&ur=times.hankooki.com&fo=print_kt.htm
http://times.hankooki.com/.../200402/kt2004022320362311490.htm&ur=times.hankooki.com&fo=print_kt.htm


www.ingentaconnect.com/content/  
http://www.ingentaconnect.com/content/  


routledg/riac/2000/00000001/00000003/art00004
http://routledg/riac/2000/00000001/00000003/art00004


reference.allrefer.com/country-guide-study/  
http://reference.allrefer.com/country-guide-study/  


south-korea/south-korea23.html
http://south-korea/south-korea23.html




Line 269: Line 273:


http://times.hankooki.com/lpage/biz/200504/kt2005042516460311900.htm
http://times.hankooki.com/lpage/biz/200504/kt2005042516460311900.htm
== '''(3)Driving Forces''' ==
1. increase in demand of ROK's sophisticated consumer
2. increase in ROK's opening of financial capital market since IMF
3. the nature of divided penninsula between DPRK and ROK
4. increase in notion of pax-americana - america's sole pre-eminence
5. increase in availability of cheap broadband internet in ROK
6. absence of raw material(oil)-no oil in ROK 
7. shortage of land in korean penninsula  .
8. increasing globalization of ROK's economy
9. Seoul's becoming of mega city .
10. historical experience of Japan's colonization and ambition .
11. continuation of Kim Jung Il's attempt to sustain his regime 
12. decrease in confucius value in ROK
13. existance of Korea-US tight relationship since Korean war .

Latest revision as of 05:25, 31 May 2005

Group 1. Ji-Hoon,Dokyun, Tiger, Rose uncertainty

great, nice to see you are using the page, how is it going with your research?

it's going ok...I just hope that topics we found do not end up redundant.

looks interesting, but without the other groups adding their work to the wiki it is hard to tell;-)

Here are the topics our group chose :


(1) 44 possible uncertainties

1. population of korea / the birth rate? growing population of old people, imbalance of gender ratio

2. domestic university

3. north korea' nuke

4. us-japan relation

5. dockdo problem

6. US army in korea

7. anti-americanism

8. US's growing deficit

9. Korea's real estate-price

10. increasing amount of garbage, limited area to dispose of

11. increasing confrontation in korean society

conservative/liberal, generation gap, the rich/the poor

12. NK's sudden collapse

13. NK's unification-possible conflict

14. Korean-China relationship

15. Japan's right wing/ armament

16. stem cell-Dr. Whang

17. china-taiwan relationship

18. IT infra-WAN network, currency

19. unification church - new-born cult religion

20. seoul vs. suburb conflict

21. korean's education system

22. theme park

23. "korean wave"-what if it disappear, influence of korean culture 24. the future of korean movie

25. labor union

26. the future of Korean IT industry (portals, game industry...)

27. domestic problem(family)

28. korean's welfare policy(health care)

29. japan's entrance to US security council

30. FTA

31. transportation(alternative energy ? )

32. oil shortage

33. Samsung's future

34. plastic surgery

35. increasing international marriage and its consequence (racial mix)

36. impact of DMB

37. korean men's/women's status in korea

38. unemployment

39. increasing online media /

40. political party-regime change in korean politics

41. future of korean soccer

42. home network technology

43. Uniformed Currency ex) AU as in EU

44. ROK - India Relationship

(2) 20 tentative questions to be answered - selected from 44 uncertainties

1. How would north Korea’s sudden collapse affect south korea?

(http://www.chinadaily.com.cn/english/doc/2005-04/14/content_434255.htm)

2. How would unification affect Korean peninsula? What are some f possible conflicts?

(http://www.findarticles.com/p/articles/mi_qa3821/is_200004/ai_n8878473)

3. How would current Dockdo problem/distortion of history affect Korea’s relationship with Japan?

(http://english.ohmynews.com/articleview/article_view.asp?

menu=A11100&no=216162&rel_no=1&back_url=)

4. Could Japan's right wing movement / armament pose threat to south Korea?

(http://www.findarticles.com/p/articles/mi_qn4158/is_200504/ai_n13619567)

5. What could be the future of Korea-China relationship?

(http://www.findarticles.com/p/articles/mi_qa3680/is_200401/ai_n9235752)

6. what would the be impact of the development of stem cell on Korean society?

http://news.naver.com/news/read.php?mode=LSD&office_id=081&article_id=0000031724&section_id=100&menu_id=100 http://www.seri.org/db/dbCeoV.html?s_menu=0102&pub_key=db20041027001&search_gubun=1&sYear=2004 http://www.seri.org/db/dbCeoV.html?s_menu=0102&pub_key=db20030604001&search_gubun=1&sYear=2003

7.What would be the future of Korean movie industry?

http://www.seri.org/db/dbRptV.html?s_menu=0101&pub_key=db20020401009&search_gubun=1&sYear=2002 http://blog.naver.com/risk_manager.do?Redirect=Log&logNo=12654029

8.what would be the impact of DMB in Korean society?

http://www.seri.org/db/dbBriV.html?s_menu=0103&pub_key=db20050418001&search_gubun=1&sYear=2005 http://www.seri.org/db/dbBriV.html?s_menu=0103&pub_key=db20050221001&search_gubun=1&sYear=2005

9. what would be the impact of Kyoto protocol ( reduction of the amount of Co2 emission) on korean economy?

http://www.seri.org/db/dbCeoV.html?s_menu=0102&pub_key=db20050216001&search_gubun=1&sYear=2005 http://news.naver.com/news/read.php?mode=LSD&office_id=081&article_id=0000031724&section_id=100&menu_id=100 http://cafe.naver.com/okary.cafe?iframe_url=/ArticleRead.nhn%3Farticleid=203

10.How would Korean IT infra (network) affect our lives (home) ?

http://www.lge.co.kr/product/h_network/about/hn05.jsp?id=U136 http://www.seri.org/db/dbCeoV.html?s_menu=0102&pub_key=db20031203001&search_gubun=1&sYear=2003 http://www.seri.org/db/dbBriV.html?s_menu=0103&pub_key=db20041122001&search_gubun=1&sYear=2004 http://news.naver.com/news/read.php?mode=LSD&office_id=030&article_id=0000106148&section_id=105&menu_id=105

11. Data show that by 2050, population of elderly will take up to 40% of the entire population. Consequently, Korean society will be composed of the largest old population among OECD countries. The phenomenon of aging society is caused by rapid advancement of bio-chemical and medical industries/technologies and low fertility. Surely, such change in social demography will influence every corner of Korean society. Please establish a scenario in terms of Korean society’s future demography (the aging society).

http://www.freenorthkorea.net/archives/freenorthkorea/000933.html

http://www.nihonkaigaku.org/ham/eacoex/100econ/110step/111pop/aging/e_aging.html

http://www.newsworld.co.kr/cont/0411/56.html

http://www.un.org/esa/population/publications/popdecline/kim.pdf

http://www.blackwell-synergy.com/links/doi/10.1111/j.1447-0594.2004.00146.x/abs/

http://www.hani.co.kr/section-004000000/2004/10/004000000200410011406604.html

http://www.cpb.or.kr/textdata/HOMEPAGE/200102/0100032/200101.pdf

http://times.hankooki.com/lpage/special/200310/kt2003103020290739750.htm

http://times.hankooki.com/lpage/opinion/200504/kt2005040720022754300.htm

http://static.highbeam.com/k/koreatimesseoulkorea/july142000/editorialagingsocietyeditorial/

12. The number of Korean youngsters leaving Korea to seek for better education is exponentially increasing every year even to a point that the foreign spending on education abroad contributes significantly to the increase in government deficit. If the trend continues, Korea’s future may suffer from the shortage of educated human resources. What are the fundamental problems of Korean education system? And how will it be improved to meet the standard and needs of Korean parents?

http://www.moe.go.kr/en/down/edu-ko-b-c2.pdf

http://www.lifeinkorea.com/Information/education.cfm

http://www.korea.net/Search/Directory/DirView.asp?code=h002

http://yuhak.interedu.go.kr/study/system.html

http://reference.allrefer.com/country-guide-study/south-korea/south-korea72.html

http://times.hankooki.com/.../200402/kt2004022316593811490.htm&ur=times.hankooki.com&fo=print_kt.htm

13.Korean society has been greatly influenced by Confucius values which, among many others, pursue gender differences. The deeply embedded notion of gender inequality established different gender status in Korea. However, as Western values were introduced, gender role and status have gradually changed. With increasing importance of female role in society, one may predict that Korean society in 10 years will be a totally opposite situation compared to the 1990s. Please predict the future of Korean society in terms of male/female status.

http://www.winkorea.or.kr/lecture_img/1000/31/J.R.Yoon.doc

http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/entrez/query.fcgi?cmd=Retrieve&db=PubMed&list_uids=12295268&dopt=Abstract

http://times.hankooki.com/lpage/ http://opinion/200505/kt2005051816021654050.htm

http://www.religion.ucsb.edu/projects/

http://newpluralism/Confucian%20Korea.doc

http://sociology.snu.ac.kr/isdpr/

http://publication/journal/27-2/3Suni%20Lee.pdf

http://www.women21.or.kr/data/women21/

http://EngPDS_X/mixed%20civil%20society.doc

14.Korea boasts the highest rate of high-speed internet use among OECD countries. Such advancement in internet benefits Korea in many ways; however, it has also shown numerous negative aspects. One of the phenomenons is a rapid spread of online media which is gradually replacing offline media. Perhaps in 10 years, Korean society will face too much dependence in online media. Please build a scenario in terms of online media dependency.

http://www.asiamedia.ucla.edu/article.asp?parentid=20160

http://www.asiamedia.ucla.edu/article.asp?parentid=9693

http://www.why-war.com/news/2004/01/01/internet.html

http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/entrez/query.fcgi?cmd=Retrieve&db=PubMed&list_uids=12804026&dopt=Abstract

http://www.liebertonline.com/doi/abs/10.1089/109493103321640338

http://www.kisa.or.kr/english/trend/2002/trend_20020414_01.html


15. Current Korean politics show a conflict between left and right wing parties. Under President Noh Moo-Hyun’s administration, Korean political seemed more skewed to the left. In 2007, there will be a presidential election, and everybody expects another political battle between the left and right wing parties. Please predict Korea’s political situation in 2015 considering numerous national and international issues.

http://www.economist.com/countries/SouthKorea/profile.cfm?folder=ProfilePolitical%20Structure

http://www.economist.com/countries/SouthKorea/

http://times.hankooki.com/.../200402/kt2004022320362311490.htm&ur=times.hankooki.com&fo=print_kt.htm

http://www.ingentaconnect.com/content/

http://routledg/riac/2000/00000001/00000003/art00004

http://reference.allrefer.com/country-guide-study/

http://south-korea/south-korea23.html


16.How is the future of Korean IT industry going?

http://times.hankooki.com/lpage/special/200402/kt2004022021151911440.htm

17.The effect of unemployment rates in Korea?

http://econwpa.wustl.edu:8089/eps/lab/papers/0204/0204004.pdf

18.The effect of Anti-Americanism?

http://times.hankooki.com/lpage/opinion/200407/kt2004071515255354100.htm

http://www.keia.com/2-Publications/2-3-Monograph/Monograph2004/Cumings.pdf

19.Economic effects of a Korea-Japan FTA?

http://www.erina.or.jp/Jp/Research/db/rep14/RS-TI/02040.pdf

20.How much effect of Kyoto protocol to the Korea?

http://times.hankooki.com/lpage/biz/200504/kt2005042516460311900.htm


(3)Driving Forces

1. increase in demand of ROK's sophisticated consumer

2. increase in ROK's opening of financial capital market since IMF

3. the nature of divided penninsula between DPRK and ROK

4. increase in notion of pax-americana - america's sole pre-eminence

5. increase in availability of cheap broadband internet in ROK

6. absence of raw material(oil)-no oil in ROK

7. shortage of land in korean penninsula .

8. increasing globalization of ROK's economy

9. Seoul's becoming of mega city .

10. historical experience of Japan's colonization and ambition .

11. continuation of Kim Jung Il's attempt to sustain his regime

12. decrease in confucius value in ROK

13. existance of Korea-US tight relationship since Korean war .