3) Too little - too late

Under “too late too little” the world has not recovered from the economic crisis. The economic crisis has caused that countries are more inward focussed and there is very little international cooperation. The world becomes more polarized between West and East, Christian and Muslims. Growth in emerging markets is starting to decline as emerging markets economies are very dependent on international trade which is currently going down due economic crises and the inward focussed policies of developed countries. World population continues to growth. Peak oil has happened, but major oil companies and countries are not aware yet. Big international conferences regarding climate policies keep on failing and countries are not willing to work together to solve climate issues or find alternative sources of oil. Oil production is concentrated on exploring conventional sources and no investments are made in efficiency. Oil prices are going down due to economic recession and companies need to produce more money in order to receive same income. Crew change is getting worse as oil prices are low; people are not interested to join oil companies. Global warming is getting worse but because countries are focussed in fighting the problems of the economic crisis and are not focussed on global warming issues.

In year 2025, people are finally aware that Oil peak has happened and that the conventional oil resources are almost depleted. The price of oil prize is skyrocketing to USD 400 a barrel. Due to the high prize of oil, this attracts people to work in the oil industry again, but it takes time to train people, so there is a shortage of qualified people, driving the prize of oil even more up. Finally oil companies and countries are starting to explore non-conventional oil, exploring efficient use in energy and alternative resources. Although there are some improvements in this. Due to the slow start, non-conventional oil, alternative energy and more efficient use of energy is not enough to replace the conventional oil resources. Due to the shortage of energy, recession even worsens creating political instability within countries as there is a bigger delta between poor and rich. Regional issues between West and East, Christians and Muslims are worsening and terrorist attacks are the order of the day. World population is growing extremely due to poverty (increased family sizes). Global warming issues are becoming increasingly worse and people have to move to different countries to live due to climate issues. Climate refugees are causing more economic problems. All these issues are escalating each other and causing continued economic recession and political instability.

In 2030, there is no conventional oil reserves left. Development of alternatives, non-conventional oil, and energy efficiency is still not enough to compensate the shortage of energy supply. Economies remain in recession and the world is aware that too little has been done to late.