Future of China in 2030

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Group Members

Guy Keidar
Gerrit Ledderhof
Chia Wei Lee
Johanna Little
Geoff Spielman

Introduction

You guys might want to look at articles published by Bobo Lo, he writes on Russia but also Russo-Chinese relations. Andrei.

Research Questions

Environment

What are the key drivers behind China's current environmental state?

The driving factors behind China’s environmental problems include an increase in the number of households, increased urbanization, explosive economic growth, and a failure to execute environmental policy. The number of households in China has grown almost three times as fast as its population during 1985-2000. The average household has decreased from 4.5 to 3.5 people and because smaller households consume more resources per person, China’s rapid increase in household number and reduction in household size have had significant environmental consequences. China is also becoming more urban. From 1952 to 2003, the country's proportionate urban population tripled from 13% to 39%. (Liu & Diamond, 2005)

Another driving force behind China's current environmental situation is due to its economic growth. China is a large consumer of fertilizer and pesticides. The consumption of these industrial and agricultural products leads to air, water and land pollution and other forms of environmental damage. With increasing affluence, China’s per capita consumption of meat, milk and eggs increased four-, four- and eightfold, respectively, between 1978 and 2002. This means more agricultural wastes, animal droppings, fish droppings, fish food and fertilizer for aquaculture, tending to increase terrestrial and aquatic pollution. Additionally, China’s transportation network and number of vehicles have grown explosively. In 1994, after the number of motor vehicles had increased to six times the 1980 figure, China decided to make car production one of its four ‘pillar industries’ to stimulate economic growth, with the goal of increasing production (especially of cars) by another factor of four by 2010. This would make China the world’s third-largest vehicle manufacturer, after the United States and Japan — with obvious implications for highway expansion at the expense of arable land, greater dependence on imported oil, and the recently improved but still poor air quality in cities such as Beijing. Further, much of China’s economy — such as coal-mining and cement, paper and chemical production — still rests on outdated, inefficient or polluting technology, and overall industrial energy efficiency is only half that of the developed world. Coal is the country’s primary energy source and the main cause of its air pollution and acid rain. Although solar and wind power are potentially significant renewable energy sources, hydroelectricity will become more important over the next decade, particularly with the expected completion of the controversial 18.2-gigawatt Three Gorges Dam project in 2009. (Liu & Diamond, 2005)

Finally, although China has made strides in writing environmental protection policy, the country still lags in execution of these policies. China declared environmental protection a basic national principle in 1983, laid out a broad strategy to achieve sustainable development in 1994, and in 1996 developed its first five-year plan on environmental protection. In 2003, the government proposed a new development concept emphasizing humanism and attempting to achieve sustainable development and harmony between man and nature, as well as coordinated socioeconomic progress among various regions and with foreign countries. In reality, although there has been much effort to control environmental degradation, economic development often takes priority at the local level and is still the main criterion for judging government officials’ performance. (Liu & Diamond, 2005) In 2006, premier Wen Jiabao listed three changes that China needs: to move from a GDP-centered model of growth to one that balances economy and environment and seeks the development of environmental protection; to change from a view of environmental protection as an obstacle to economic growth to the development of economy and environment in tandem; and to institute a range of methods to help resolve environmental problems. (Jun, 2007)

What impact have these key drivers had on the environment?
What are China's most significant environmental obstacles going forward?

China has developed numerous environmental laws and policies, but most of them are just on paper. Environmental protection agencies lack sufficient authority, financial resources and manpower. When there are conflicts between environmental protection and economic development, the former often loses to the latter. Economic performance often overshadows environmental protection as a criterion for selection and promotion of government officials. Environmental awareness is low among the general public, government officials and business people. Most people think that environmental protection harms economic growth and do not recognize that environmental problems have already caused huge economic losses, severe social conflicts, enormous health costs and increased "natural" disasters (such as dust storms, floods, droughts). Furthermore, many technologies in China are outdated, inefficient and highly polluting. Lifestyles are changing rapidly. Although per capita consumption in China is still much less than that in developed countries, increases in consumption are accelerating. Diet is shifting more toward meat and away from grain. More cars are pouring into newly constructed and rapidly expanding highways. Divorce has become increasingly common, resulting in more and smaller households and thus lower efficiency of resource use. In 2004 alone, over 1.6 million couples split up. (PBS, 2006)

How will the state of China's environment affect the country's future?
What will China's environmental policy be going forward?

References

News and Journal Articles

1. Jun, Ma. (2007). How participation can help China's ailing environment. Available: http://www.chinadialogue.net/article/show/single/en/733-How-participation-can-help-China-s-ailing-environment
   
2. PBS. (2006). China's Environmental Future. Available: http://www.pbs.org/kqed/chinainside/nature/environment.html.
3. Liu, J. & Diamond, J.. (2005). China's Place in the World: Environmental Impact of a Giant. Available: http://www.csis.msu.edu/Publication%20files/China_Environment_Globalization.pdf

Previous Scenarios

1. http://www.weforum.org/pdf/scenarios/China_report.pdf
2. http://scenariothinking.org/wiki/index.php/Future_of_China_in_2020
   
3. http://money.cnn.com/magazines/business2/business2_archive/2006/08/01/8382233/index.htm
4. http://www3.brookings.edu/views/articles/li200707.pdf

Recommended Reading

1. Barton, D. 2004. Facing China. The McKinsey Quarterly 2004 special edition: China today.
2. Bekier, Matthias M., Richard Huang, and Gregory P. Wilson. 2005. How to fix China’s banking system. The McKinsey Quarterly 2005. Number 1.
3. Bloom, Erik, Vincent de Wit, and Mary Jane Carangal-San Jose. 2005. Potential Economic Impact of an Avian Flu Pandemic on Asia. ERD Policy Brief Series No. 42. Manila : Asian Development Bank. November.
4. Brahm, Laurence J. 2001. China’s Century: The Awakening of the Next Economic Powerhouse. Singapore: John Wiley & Sons (Asia) Pte Ltd.
5. Chen, Kun, and Martin Kenney. 2005. University/Research Institute-Industry Linkages in Two Chinese Cities : Commercializing Technological Innovation. To be presented at “Universities as Drivers of the Urban Economies in Asia” sponsored by the World Bank and Social Research Council. 24-25 May.
6. Courrier International. 2005. La Chine des Chinois. Hors-Série, Juin-Juillet-Août. France.
7. Crane, Keith, Roger Cliff, Evan Medeiros, James Mulvenon, and William Overholt. 2005. Modernizing China’s Military: Opportunities and Constraints. RAND Corporation.
8. Economy, Elizabeth C. 2004. The River Runs Black: The environmental challenge to China’s future. Ithaca & London: Cornell University Press.
9. Hale, David (Hale Advisers, LLC). 2005. China’s Currency Conundrum. Central Banking Volume XVI No.1. London: Central Banking Publications.
10. Smil, Vaclav. 2004. China’s Past, China’s Future: energy, food, environment. New York, NY and Great Britain : RoutledgeCurzon.
11. UBS Securities Asia Ltd, UBS Investment Research. 2005. How to Think About China. Asian Economic Perspectives. Hong Kong. 6 January.
12. Morgan Stanley Equity Research. 2004. New Tigers of Asia. India and China: A Special Economic Analysis. Asia/Pacific, 26 July.
13. Orr, Gordon R. 2004. The aging of China. The McKinsey Quarterly 2004 special edition: China today.