Future of China in 2030

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Group Members

The content of this page has been prepared between September and October 2009 by:
Guy Kedar
Gerrit Ledderhof
Chia-Wei Lee
Johanna Little
Geoff Spielman


Chinese Flag
Map of China

China is more than just the world's most populous country. It is a vast land with a rich history and strong cultural identity. China's strong economic growth in recent years has put it in a unique position on the world stage, and the future of China, while uncertain, will have major consequences not just for itself but for the rest of world. Although much has been said over the last few years about this region, there are still many interesting and important aspects uncovered and unexplored.

This page is devoted to exploring potential futures for China in 2030.


Scenario Stories

The following are the four scenario stories detailing different futures for China in 2030:

Environmental disaster
Birth of a superpower
Dissolving of an empire
A foray into democracy

Scenario Tree

Systems Diagram


Driving Forces

New Forces

The following forces were determined to be of interest based on our research:

Political Driving Forces

Environmental Driving Forces

Societal Driving Forces

Economic Driving Forces

Technological Driving Forces

Existing Forces

The following forces are already existing on the wiki and are explicitly related to China.

Political Driving Forces

Economic Driving Forces

Societal Driving Forces

Environmental Driving Forces

Research Questions

To begin our research, we generated a list of specific questions we were interested in answering on our quest to learn more about China. The questions were loosely grouped into four areas: government & politics, economics, society & culture, and environment. Follow the links to learn the answers.

Government and Politics


Society and Culture


The below links are the short answers for each question. For more information, please select the following link: Environmental Research Questions - China in 2030



  1. Political History: http://acc6.its.brooklyn.cuny.edu/~phalsall/texts/chinhist.html
  2. General History: http://www-chaos.umd.edu/history/toc.html


  1. Frontline. 2006. Young and Restless in China.
  2. Washington Post. 2006. Redefining China's Family.
  3. Financial Times. 2009. NATHAN ANDERSON, UBS, on the future of China economic policy Video.

News and Journal Articles

  1. Jun, Ma. (2007). How participation can help China's ailing environment. Available: http://www.chinadialogue.net/article/show/single/en/733-How-participation-can-help-China-s-ailing-environment
  2. PBS. (2006). China's Environmental Future. Available: http://www.pbs.org/kqed/chinainside/nature/environment.html.
  3. Liu, J. & Diamond, J.. (2005). China's Place in the World: Environmental Impact of a Giant. Available: http://www.csis.msu.edu/Publication%20files/China_Environment_Globalization.pdf
  4. People's Daily Online. 11 September 2009. Will China's economic growth change the world economic pattern? Available: http://english.people.com.cn/90001/90780/91344/6755577.html
  5. Hilton Yip, The China Post. 26 September 2009. A whole new world ahead. Available: http://www.chinapost.com.tw/art/books/2009/09/26/226517/A-whole.htm

Previous Scenarios

  1. Future of China in 2020
  2. The Future of the Internet in China 2015
  3. http://www.weforum.org/pdf/scenarios/China_report.pdf
  4. http://money.cnn.com/magazines/business2/business2_archive/2006/08/01/8382233/index.htm
  5. http://www3.brookings.edu/views/articles/li200707.pdf

Recommended Reading

Can't get enough of China? Here is a list of interested things to read, watch, or see. Be careful, you might learn something.

  1. Shen, Sandy. (2008). Innovation Is Reshaping China's Economy. Gartner. G00157000.
  2. Motley Fool. 2008. Will China Starve the World?
  3. The New York Times. 2008. Missile-ready China warns U.S. against plan to destroy spy satellite
  4. Wired. 2008. How China Loses the Coming Space War (Pt. 1)
  5. Pei, Minxin. (2007). Corruption Threatens China’s Future. Carnegie: Endowment for International Peace. Policy Brief 55
  6. Bloom, Erik, Vincent de Wit, and Mary Jane Carangal-San Jose. 2005. Potential Economic Impact of an Avian Flu Pandemic on Asia. ERD Policy Brief Series No. 42. Manila : Asian Development Bank. November.
  7. Brahm, Laurence J. 2001. China’s Century: The Awakening of the Next Economic Powerhouse. Singapore: John Wiley & Sons (Asia) Pte Ltd.
  8. Zhang, Zeng, Mako & Seward. 2009. Promoting Enterprise-Led Innovation in China. The World Bank.
  9. Miaojie, Yu. 2009. Global Times. Domestic markets can't sustain China's growth
  10. The Economist. 2009. China and the West: A time for muscle-flexing
  11. National Geographic. 2008. China's Journey
  12. Chen, Kun, and Martin Kenney. 2005. University/Research Institute-Industry Linkages in Two Chinese Cities : Commercializing Technological Innovation. To be presented at “Universities as Drivers of the Urban Economies in Asia” sponsored by the World Bank and Social Research Council. 24-25 May.
  13. Courrier International. 2005. La Chine des Chinois. Hors-Série, Juin-Juillet-Août. France.
  14. Crane, Keith, Roger Cliff, Evan Medeiros, James Mulvenon, and William Overholt. 2005. Modernizing China’s Military: Opportunities and Constraints. RAND Corporation.
  15. Economy, Elizabeth C. 2004. The River Runs Black: The environmental challenge to China’s future. Ithaca & London: Cornell University Press.
  16. Hale, David (Hale Advisers, LLC). 2005. China’s Currency Conundrum. Central Banking Volume XVI No.1. London: Central Banking Publications.
  17. Smil, Vaclav. 2004. China’s Past, China’s Future: energy, food, environment. New York, NY and Great Britain : RoutledgeCurzon.
  18. UBS Securities Asia Ltd, UBS Investment Research. 2005. How to Think About China. Asian Economic Perspectives. Hong Kong. 6 January.
  19. Morgan Stanley Equity Research. 2004. New Tigers of Asia. India and China: A Special Economic Analysis. Asia/Pacific, 26 July.
  20. Orr, Gordon R. 2004. The aging of China. The McKinsey Quarterly 2004 special edition: China today.
  21. Clifford Coonan.10 Mar.2006. "China’s Boom is Killing Sea That Gives It Life, Warn Scientists." Independent News and Media Limited.
  22. Wenping, He. 2007. The Balancing Act of China's Africa Policy.