Difference between revisions of "Will Russia’s dependency on oil bring about the same collapse as occurred in Soviet Union?"

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(New page: It is hard to judge right now. Apparently, the political stability and rising oil price in recent years did make Russia better off than before. It also make the government take the new inv...)
 
 
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It is hard to judge right now. Apparently, the political stability and rising oil price in recent years did make Russia better off than before. It also make the government take the new investment in new projects and business infrastructure lightly. The highly dependence on oil reserve may affect its long term competitiveness. The balance of rule of law and the social welfare system might be the key indicator to monitor.
Dependency on oil did not bring about collapse of the Soviet Union.
However, heavy reliance on energy at the expense of development of other sectors of the economy will make any country, including Russia, fragile.
How fragile is Russia?
There is no doubt that the country has benefited from historically high oil prices over the past few years.  And although revenues from energy exports have trickled down to average Russians, it is clear that only a small percentage of the oil wealth is directed to policies and projects that will benefit average Russians and diversify the economy away from oil and gas.  
In that sense Russia is still fragile. In the same way that other oil-rich states are fragile: Iran, Mexico, Ecuador.

Latest revision as of 15:39, 28 September 2009

Dependency on oil did not bring about collapse of the Soviet Union. However, heavy reliance on energy at the expense of development of other sectors of the economy will make any country, including Russia, fragile. How fragile is Russia? There is no doubt that the country has benefited from historically high oil prices over the past few years. And although revenues from energy exports have trickled down to average Russians, it is clear that only a small percentage of the oil wealth is directed to policies and projects that will benefit average Russians and diversify the economy away from oil and gas. In that sense Russia is still fragile. In the same way that other oil-rich states are fragile: Iran, Mexico, Ecuador.