What is the outlook of world energy in the next 20 years?

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Answer

Foremost in the minds of many for the next two decades will be energy,specifically the availability of supply and its links to security. Forecasts suggest that global demands for energy, particularly from India and China, will grow rapidly. The International Energy Agency estimates that based on current trends,energy needs might be well over 40 percent higher in 2030 than today.

In the IEO2009 projections, total world consumption of marketed energy is projected to increase by 44 percent from 2006 to 2030. The largest projected increase in energy demand is for the non-OECD economies. The current economic downturn dampens world demand for energy in the near term, as manufacturing and consumer demand for goods and services slow. IEO2009 assumes, however, that most nations will begin to return to trend growth within the next 12 to 24 months.

World Energy Demand 2030.jpg

The use of all energy sources increases over the time frame of the IEO2009 reference case. Given expectations that world oil prices will remain relatively high through most of the projection period, liquid fuels and other petroleum5 are the world’s slowest growing source of energy: liquids consumption increases at an average annual rate of 0.9 percent from 2006 to 2030. Renewables are the fastest-growing source of world energy, with consumption increasing by 3.0 percent per year. Projected oil prices, as well as rising concern about the environmental impacts of fossil fuel use and strong government incentives for increasing renewable penetration in most countries around the world, improve the prospects for renewable energy sources worldwide.

Energy Use by Type 2030.jpg

Although liquid fuels are expected to remain the largest source of energy, the liquids share of world marketed energy consumption declines from 36 percent in 2006 to 32 percent in 2030. The reference case assumes that world oil prices lead many energy users, especially in the industrial and electric power sectors, to switch from liquid fuels and other petroleum when feasible. From 2006 to 2030, liquids consumption in the residential, commercial, and electric power sectors declines on a worldwide basis.

Reference

Energy Information Administration

International Energy Outlook 2009

http://www.eia.doe.gov/oiaf/ieo/index.html