Difference between revisions of "Two driving all"

From ScenarioThinking
Jump to navigation Jump to search
 
(8 intermediate revisions by the same user not shown)
Line 1: Line 1:
=Overview=
=Overview=
After failed negotiation talks in 2010 and 2011, EU decides to restrict carbon emission by carbon trading within its own region and successfully implements it ([[Carbon Trading, Finances and related Economics]]). This move is mainly driven by [[Increasing influence of media]] and [[Dynamics of Public Support]]. Afterwards the EU introduced import duties on countries with high emissions (without emission targets) and China shortly afterwards followed this model because the country was affected by several [[Catastrophes - Acts of God]]. The money derived from this import duties was redistributed to developing countries for education and implementation of emission reducing measures. <br><br>
After failed negotiation talks in 2010 and 2011, EU decides to restrict carbon emission by carbon trading within its own region and successfully implements it ([[Carbon Trading, Finances and related Economics]]). This move is mainly driven by [[Increasing influence of media]], [[Position of Corporates]] and [[Dynamics of Public Support]]. Afterwards the EU introduced import duties on countries with high emissions (without emission targets) and China shortly afterwards followed this model because the country was affected by several [[Catastrophes - Acts of God]]. The money derived from this import duties was redistributed to developing countries for education and implementation of emission reducing measures. <br><br>
During the end of this ten years period USA also implemented emission reduction targets for its country to be an example for the developing countries. USA wanted to push mainly the BRIC nations to also put targets. In this way their economic growth should be stopped. <br><br>
During the end of this ten years period USA also implemented emission reduction targets for its country to be an example for the developing countries. USA wanted to push mainly the BRIC nations to also put targets. In this way their economic growth should be stopped. <br><br>
However, the funds mainly from the import duties provided enough finances so that the most important developing countries were able to invest in emission reducing measures without harming their GDP growth. So in the end also these countries implemented reduction targets and fulfilled them. <br><br>
However, the funds mainly from the import duties provided enough finances so that the most important developing countries were able to invest in emission reducing measures without harming their GDP growth. So in the end also these countries implemented reduction targets and fulfilled them. <br><br>
Line 15: Line 15:




=2010 - 2013=
=2011 - 2013=
Mostly driven by the public awareness and the pressure that came from this direction on the EU governments after the fiasco in Cancun, the region decided to put emission reduction limits for its region of 25% in the early stage of this timeperiod. Because the corporations realized that installation of emission reducing technology also increased the efficiency, they rapidly invested in this. This lead to the emissions target be reached soon after it came out as a EU wide regulation. <br>
Mostly driven by the public awareness and the pressure that came from this direction on the EU governments after the fiasco in Cancun, the region decided to put emission reduction limits for its region of 25% in the early stage of this timeperiod. Because the corporations realized that installation of emission reducing technology also increased the efficiency, they rapidly invested in this. This lead to the emissions target be reached soon after it came out as a EU wide regulation. <br>


Line 24: Line 24:
<br><br>
<br><br>


=2013 - 2018=
=2014 - 2018=
With the intention to push the other nations, EU put import duties on goods that had their origin in countries with a certain minimum per capita GDP without emission reduction targets. This was a surprising action for many at that time. However, it was also brought forward because EU was steering towards more unification and had now own EU ministers being responsible for each field on EU wide level. EU had even one minister called EU Ministry for Climate Change Issues.  <br><br>
With the intention to push the other nations, EU put import duties on goods that had their origin in countries with a certain minimum per capita GDP without emission reduction targets. This was a surprising action for many at that time. However, it was also brought forward because EU was steering towards more unification and had now own EU ministers being responsible for each field on EU wide level. EU had even one minister called EU Ministry for Climate Change Issues.  <br><br>
This fact plus China becoming a more and more the trading partner number one (before US) for the EU, changed the negotiation behavior of EU and thus it also ignored the WTO, which abolished such trade barriers. <br>
This fact plus China becoming a more and more the trading partner number one (before US) for the EU, changed the negotiation behavior of EU and thus it also ignored the WTO, which abolished such trade barriers. <br>
Line 35: Line 35:
<br>
<br>


=2018 - 2020=
=2019 - 2020=
The negotiations on UNFCCC level had lost importance in the worldwide discussion about reducing global warming, mostly in terms of the awareness of the public. People and media saw that initiative came from some countries and had the impression that conferences in the UN were only ongoing power games. <br><br>
The negotiations on UNFCCC level had lost importance in the worldwide discussion about reducing global warming, mostly in terms of the awareness of the public. People and media saw that initiative came from some countries and had the impression that conferences in the UN were only ongoing power games. <br><br>
This does not mean that the climate debate between the countries went on. It rather went on behind the scenes of the UN. For example, all of a sudden USA put itself emission reduction targets. It required mainly the industry to improve efficiency. The country did this for two reasons: 1. To avoid the import duties from China and EU and 2. To be an example to developing countries to also set emission targets. USA observed the developing countries growing economically. The country believed to put with emission targets a brake on this growth, which was seen as a threat to USA. So they communicated it on the UNFCCC conference.<br><br>
This does not mean that the climate debate between the countries went on. It rather went on behind the scenes of the UN. For example, all of a sudden USA put itself emission reduction targets. It required mainly the industry to improve efficiency. The country did this for two reasons: 1. To avoid the import duties from China and EU and 2. To be an example to developing countries to also set emission targets. USA observed the developing countries growing economically. The country believed to put with emission targets a brake on this growth, which was seen as a threat to USA. So they communicated it on the UNFCCC conference.<br><br>
Line 46: Line 46:


= Timeline =
= Timeline =
[[File:Timeline Scenario]]
[[File:]]

Latest revision as of 13:36, 31 August 2010