The future of the global economy in 2020

Introduction

This page will contain the results of the scenario planning process of group 3 of class RSM EMBA05 on the following subject:

The future of the global economy in 2020

The members of Group 3 are:

• Peter Groen
• Wendi Mennen
• Maarten Post
• Harry Schoots
• Eric Verbeek

Research Documentation

http://www.stern.nyu.edu/globalmacro/ which contains a link to an Economist article to get us started: Analysis: The Economist, Sep 06, 2005 The perfect storm.

http://scenariothinking.org/wiki/index.php/The_Future_of_the_Global_Village_in_2020 which contains a scenario of last years students.

http://www.odci.gov/nic/NIC_home.html is the homepage of the National Intelligence Councel. Mapping the Global future is a useful report.

http://www.millenniumassessment.org is the homepage of the Millenium Ecosystem Assessment. Latest research of the MA states that environmental concerns increase opportunities and challenges for business that ultimately might influence the global economy.

http://t21.ca contains a selection of world global trends on different aspects based on many sources. http://t21.ca/economic/index.htm lists the economic key findings.

The Netherlands Bureau for Economic Policy Analysis (CPB) performed a scenario analysis on the economic future of Europe, downloadable from http://www.cpb.nl/eng/econ/lange_termijn/recente_studies.html
Try also this report on Globalisation and the Global Environment: four quantitative scenarios: http://www.cpb.nl/nl/general/org/homepages/aml/gitage_si.pdf

The OECD published a study on the future of the global economy: The Future of Global Economy: Towards a long boom? http://www.oecd.org/dataoecd/42/0/35394025.pdf

The CIA publishes facts of every country and region in the world. http://www.cia.gov/cia/publications/factbook/index.html

International Energy Agency publisehes the World Energy Outlook: http://www.iea.org/Textbase/publications/index.asp

Provisional Systems Diagram (as of Tue Sep 27, 05)[[1]]

Research Questions

Note to group: please add your research questions below.

ECONOMY

Asia

• What is relative GDP to world economy?
• Which countries drive the regional economy?
• What are the trade balances of the major economies in region
  
• Are the regional economies in terms of GDP increasing, and how rapidly?
  

Middle East

• What is relative GDP to world economy?
• Which countries drive the regional economy?
• What are the trade balances of the major economies in region
  
• Are the regional economies in terms of GDP increasing, and how rapidly?

Europe (incl E Eu & Russia)

• What is relative GDP to world economy?
• Which countries drive the regional economy?
• What are the trade balances of the major economies in region
  
• Are the regional economies in terms of GDP increasing, and how rapidly?
  

Africa

• What is relative GDP to world economy?
• Which countries drive the regional economy?
• What are the trade balances of the major economies in region
  
• Are the regional economies in terms of GDP increasing, and how rapidly?

North America

• What is relative GDP to world economy?
• Which countries drive the regional economy?
• What are the trade balances of the major economies in region
  
• Are the regional economies in terms of GDP increasing, and how rapidly?

South America

• What is relative GDP to world economy?
• Which countries drive the regional economy?
• What are the trade balances of the major economies in region
  
• Are the regional economies in terms of GDP increasing, and how rapidly?
  

Global

• What are the trade balances between of the important economies? What is the size and trend in global trade?
  
• What are the resource constraints with respect to economy? (in terms of natural resources)
  
• What is the strength of the American Dollar compared to the Euro, Yen, Guan,...? Is it declining of increasing in the past 10 years?
  

• What other forms of exchange (except) money are used or can be used?

• In the article http://www.ode.nl/article.php?aID=4160 the following exchange forms are mentioned: Communities building Temples in Bali, Elderly Care in Japan, Health insurance companies 'pay' for healthy behahiour, frequent flyer programs and other customer programs.
  
• On the site http://www.ex.ac.uk/~RDavies/arian/barter.html links are given of all sorts of other forms of trade without using money.
  

Statistics on barter in 2004: http://www.irta.com/Page.asp?Script=56

Politics
PG:* What will be the role of the Central Banks (ECB, FED)to the economy? (in terms of 'mission statements')

Article on the role of the central banks: http://www.bis.org/publ/cpss55.pdf
Mission of ECB: http://www.ecb.int/pub/pdf/other/ecbhistoryrolefunctions2004en.pdf
Speech Greenspan 25/8/2005: http://www.federalreserve.gov/boarddocs/speeches/2005/20050826/default.htm

PG:* What will be the role of the WTO and UN to the economy? (in terms of 'mission statements')

Role of the UN: http://www.un.org/millennium/sg/report/full.htm
Article on the role of the WTO: http://www.ccc.nps.navy.mil/si/oct03/trade.asp

PG: * What will be the role of the NGOs to the economy?

Article on the future of NGO's: http://www.globalpolicy.org/ngos/role/intro/gen/2000/111400.htm

• What will the effect be of global terrorism on the economy?

The following articles give insight in this topic:

• http://ksghome.harvard.edu/~aabadie/twe.pdf. The main theme of this article is that mobility ofproductive capital in an open economy may account for much of the difference between the direct and the equilibrium impact of terrorism.
• http://www.cia.gov/nic/speeches_terror_and_econ_sec.html Gives an account of the current situation, but also the uncertainties. The speech introduces the NIC 2020 project.
• http://www.odci.gov/nic/NIC_globaltrend2020.html report of the NIC 2020 project with information on terrorism.

• How will the (in)stability of the Middle-Eastern states influence the global economy and the relation of nations?

The following articles give insigth in this subject:

• http://www.cia.gov/nic/confreports_mideast_future.html (Again) from the NIC side. This is an overview of a one-day conference about the middle east for the scenarios of the NIC 2020 project.
• http://www.pbs.org/wgbh/globalconnections/mideast/themes/economics/ gives an overview of economy in the middle east and some usefull links to other sites.

PG:* What will be the effect of the European Union on the global economy (if any)?

Speech Managing Director of the IMF: Towards a stronger Europe in the global economy: http://www.imf.org/external/np/speeches/2003/110303.htm
See the NIC report (top of this page)

PG:* What are the blocks of power and what was the past development?
PG:* What is the global military spending in relation to the global development aid?

• Military expenditures - dollar figure: aggregate real expenditure on arms worldwide in 1999 remained at approximately the 1998 level, about $750 billion (1999) Military expenditures - percent of GDP: roughly 2% of gross world product (1999)(source: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/World_economy#Gift_economy)
  
• Global development aid: Yearly economic aid - recipient: official development assistance (ODA) $50 billion )(source: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/World_economy#Gift_economy)
  

Society

• What are the effects of the ageing population in Europe and North America to the economy?
  
• How sustainable is the current social security level and health care per region?
  

Answer to these 2 questions:

• The IMF has published excellent material on how demographic change affect the global economy http://www.imf.org/external/pubs/ft/weo/2004/02/pdf/chapter3.pdf
  
  

• What is the effect of increasing education levels on the economy of developing regions?
  

Environmental

• What are alternative energy sources and what is the speed of development?
  

From http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Renewable_resource (Sep 30,05):Wind power is one of the most cost competitive renewables today. Its long-term technical potential is believed 5 times current global energy consumption or 40 times current electricity demand. This requires 12.7% of all land area, or that land area with Class 3 or greater potential at a height of 80 meters. It assumes that the land is covered with 6 large wind turbines per square kilometer. Offshore resources experience mean wind speeds ~90% greater than that of land, so offshore resources could contribute substantially more energy.[45][46]. This number could also increase with higher altitude ground based or airborne wind turbines

• What are the scarce resources?
  

From http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Future_energy_development (Sep 30, 05) World energy production by source: Oil 40%, natural gas 22.5%, coal 23.3%, hydroelectric 7.0%, nuclear 6.5%, biomass and other 0.7% [5]. In the U.S., transportation accounted for 28% of all energy use and 70% of petroleum use in 2001; 97% of transportation fuel was petroleum

• What is the effect of climate change on the global economy?
• What are the effects of mobility on the environment?
  

Based on http://www.iea.org/Textbase/publications/index.asp: World Economic Outlook 2000

Technology and business
PG: * How will the development of ICT increase the access possibilities to markets?

See the global Digital Opportunity Initiative:http://www.opt-init.org/framework/pages/contents.html

• What are the effects of off shoring production work by rich countries to low wage countries, and what is the trend?

PG: * What is the growth rate of E-commerce in the world?

• How long does it take the OPEC countries to double their refinery capacity?

The OPEC site http://www.opec.org gives information about OPEC and current prices, supply and demand and considerations. The Annual statistical report.
http://www.nation.com.pk/daily/sep-2005/22/bnews8.php gives a brief overview of current considerations about refining.
http://deseretnews.com/dn/view/0,1249,610152116,00.html gives the plans for expanding refinery capacity.
I still have to call HP for more detailed info!

• What is the effect of the oil prices on the economy?<br>

http://www.globalization101.org/news.asp?NEWS_ID=84 provides a good overview of this subject with useful links.
http://economist.com/printedition/displayStory.cfm?Story_ID=4321834 to show some factors which help to see what the effect is.
http://www.imf.org/external/pubs/ft/weo/2005/01/pdf/chapter1.pdf describes how the oil prices can effect global economy.
I still have to call HP for more detailed info!

• What are the effects of the reducing energy supply on the global economy?

good links on the amount of oil that is there:
From the BBC: http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/business/4681935.stm
From Exxon Mobil where Colin Campbel is refering to in his interview: http://www.feasta.org/documents/wells/contents.html?one/longwell.html

Systems Diagram

Driving Forces

The increasing gap between developed, emerging and poor economies

The increasing effect of the development of technology on the global economy

The effect of Brazil's economy on the global economy

The increasing role of barter in the global economy

The impact of limited availability of natural food resources on the growth of the global economy

The increasing globalization of markets

Decrease of the relative share of the US economy in the global economy

Scenario's

Armageddon

Read the scenario story here: Armageddon

The Good Samaritan

Read the scenario story here: The Good Samaritan

The Tower of Babel

Read the scenario story here: The Tower of Babel