Difference between revisions of "The future of communication in 2015"

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== Introduction ==
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Below are the results of the scenario planning process of group 5 of class RSM EMBA05 (Giuseppe Bruni, Graham King, Eric Lousberg, Jeroen Plink and Rolando Ranauri) on the following subject:
 
'''The future of communication in 2015'''
 
The choice for this subject was made when discussing the intensifying battle unfolding in The Netherlands between the incumbent telephony provider, KPN and the cable operator, UPC.  
 
Both companies enjoy a monopoly in their core product offerings – that is to say telephony, in the case of KPN and TV/Video, in the case of UPC – and were originally content to restrict their efforts solely to such offerings.  Gradually, however, rapid technological advancements enabled both companies to compete across multiple products  - TV/Video, the Internet and telephony (fixed and mobile).  A recent development was UPC’s attack on KPN’s fixed line telephony business through VoIP (voice over IP).  This was the first step in the rapid convergence of all technologies to the IP network.  KPN have responded through an attack on UPC’s core product by investing heavily in TV/Video over the Internet (IPTV).  How will the battle between the companies now develop? 
 
The discussion on this battle sparked a discussion on the wider subject of communication: how are people going to communicate in 10 years, will there be a drive towards more working from home, what does "always connected" mean in practive for peoples lives, what does greater connectivity mean for work-life balance, will the increased connectivity drive people towards more local networks are will there be a drive for globalisation. The key to being able to answer these questions is the drawing of a considered conclusion on how the communications industry will develop over the medium term – say the next 10 years.
 
== Research questions ==
[[Research question - communication 2015]]<br>
 
 
== Driving Forces==
[[Increasing Fear of Sabotage on internet]]
 
[[Increase the connectivity between human and media]]
 
[[Convergence of all media to IP network]]
 
[[Governmental Control of the Internet]]
 
[[The Increase in the speed of internet connection]]
 
[[The Increase in ubiquity of the internet]]
 
[[increase in teleworking]]
 
[[Globalization]]
 
[[Improvement Nano/Biotechnology]]
 
[[Growing of closed community]]
 
[[Increased used of MSN and other instant messaging tools ]]
 
[[Disappearance of "family"]]
 
 
== Systems diagram ==
 
 
Based on our discussions of the research questions, the driving forces, and the the enablers and inhibitors to the driving forces the following systems diagram was created.<br>
[[Image:System_diagram_3_gr_5.jpg]]
 
==Key Certainties and Uncertainties==
<br><br>
From the systems diagram and the links between the various elements of the system the following set of key certainties and key uncertainties was derived:
=== Relative certainties===
<br><br>
- Increase of ubiquity/availability/speed of internet
<br>-
<br>Globalization: increasing interdependancy among people/countries and flow of information/goods/people
<br>- Different media will converge to one infrastructure (IP Network) which means that cost of communication will decrease
<br>- Improvement in nano/biotechnology will happen
 
=== Key uncertainties===
<br>- The extent to which one lives its life on line (This is going to redefine all elements in the systems diagram that relate to family/human relations)
<br>- Are new boundaries going to be raised to prevent globalisation, are we moving towards a global village or to new nationalism (new protectionism and governmental control) or will there be a building of "closed communities"?
<br>- Speed of convergence is not clear, level of adoption of new technologies is unclear and there may be difficulties in managing the flow of information
<br>- Increased connectivity human/media will lead to all kinds of issues such as privacy and genetic issues
 
==Scenarios on Communication in 2015==
Based on the key uncertainties a scenario map was defined.
 
'''''guys can someone explain the rationale behind the scenario map'''''
[[Image:Communication_scenario_2015.jpg]]
 
The resulting scenarios are:<br>
- [[Gaia]]
<br>- [[Open network, limited human borders]]''Opposition, Unadoption, Social reaction ''
<br>- [[Elite Islands]]
<br>- [[Fear]]
 
== Research Documentation ==
 
 
 
 
 
Pause or Play? The Future of Interactive Services for TV [http://www.accenture.com/xdoc/en/industries/communications/access/pauseplayv2.pdf Accenture white paper]
 
Path to Profitability: How Cable Companies can Achieve Attractive Returns on iTV Services[http://www.accenture.com/xdoc/en/industries/communications/access/path_to_profitabilityv3.pdf  another Accenture white paper]
<br>
<br>
Freeband Communication is a Dutch national research program aiming to create a leading knowledge position for the Netherlands in the area of ambient, intelligent communication. Link to [http://www.freeband.nl/index.cfm?language=en Freeband]
 
Personal Networking Pilot 2008<br>
link to: [http://www.ctit.utwente.nl/research/projects/bsik/freeband/pnp.doc/ PNP 2008]
 
[http://www.identity20.com/media/OSCON2005/ Identity 2.0]

Latest revision as of 08:01, 2 June 2010

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