Difference between revisions of "The Future of Maritime trade in 2020 and the implications for the port of Amsterdam"

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# Mirjam Terhorst
# Mirjam Terhorst
# Andreas Schuil
# Andreas Schuil
# Eduard de Visser
# David Verberne
# David Verberne
''"Work under construction. In case you have any questions, additions or comments, please do not edit these pages, but you are more than welcome to [mailto:d.verberne@kpnplanet.nl contact us].'''
<br>


== Driving forces: ==
== Driving forces: ==
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*[[How have shipping rates developed as per the recession?]]
*[[How have shipping rates developed as per the recession?]]
*[[What’s the difference between deep sea and short-sea shipping?]]
*[[What’s the difference between deep sea and short-sea shipping?]]
*[[What are the current other (competing) methods of small vessel shipping transport (i.e. short-sea shipping)?]]
*[[What are the current other (competing) methods of small vessel shipping transport (i.e. short-sea shipping)?]]
*[[What currency dominates what shipping market?]]
*[[What currency dominates what shipping market?]]
*[[What is the SEEMP?]]
*[[What is the SEEMP?]]
*[[How is maritime trade developing over the last decades?]]
*[[How is maritime trade developing over the last decades?]]
*[[What is the impact of containerization?]]
*[[What is the impact of containerization?]]
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*[[What are security issues in maritime trade?]]
*[[What are security issues in maritime trade?]]
*[[What is RFID?]]
*[[What is RFID?]]
*[[What is the trend of world imports and its forecast?]]
*[[What is the trend of world imports and its forecast?]]
*[[What is the trend of world exports and its forecast?]]
*[[What is the trend of world exports and its forecast?]]
*[[What is the trend of the industrial production of advance economies?]]
*[[What is the trend of the industrial production of advance economies?]]
*[[What is the trend of the world consumer prices?]]
*[[What is the trend of the world consumer prices?]]
*[[What is TEU?]]
*[[What is TEU?]]
*[[What are the top European container ports?]]
*[[What are the top European container ports?]]
*[[What are the top European liquid bulk ports?]]


*[[On what criteria is a port selected?]]
*[[What are the effects of the financial crisis on the world trade in 2009?]]
*[[What developments in Port performance can we observe?]]
*[[How does the Logistics supply chain look like?]]
*[[Environmental improvements in maritime shipping]]


==Systems Diagram==
this is the result after some serious thinking in class and some non-serious braindump in a team meeting (many thanks to the "Old Dutch".


[[Image:PA161959.jpg‎ ]]


After processing the Post-it and lines chaos in some kind of mind mapping software, this is the result:
 
*[[What are the top European liquid bulk ports?]]
 
 


[[Image:Systems map.jpg]]


19. On what criteria is a port selected?
==Scenario's graph==


Traditionally primarily the standalone physical attributes of a port are considered such as
[[Image:Scenariov5.png]]


• the physical and technical infrastructure
==Scenario's stories==
• the geographical location
Due to globalization, maritime traffic has more than tripled over the last decades and is expected to continue growing. Growing demand from developed economies of North America, Europe and Japan leads to an increase in energy, container and mineral cargoes. Globalization leads to an international division of the production and consumption. Technical improvements in ship and maritime terminals facilitate the flows of freight. Economies of scale permit maritime transportation to remain a low cost mode, a trend which is strengthened by containerization.
• port efficiency
• interconnectivity of the port
• quality and costs of auxiliary services such as pilotage, towage, customs, etc..,
• efficiency and costs of port management and administration
• availability, quality and costs of logistic value-added activities
• availability, quality and costs of port community systems
• portsecurity/safety and environmental profile of the port
• port reputation
• reliability,capacity, frequency and costs of inland transport services by truck, rail and barge.


But more recently people are starting to base the choice for ports on overall network cost and performance. This adds the next three points
Figure 1. Development of international seaborne trade, selected years (millions of tons)


• Time costs of the goods (opportunity costs linked to the capital tied up in the transported goods and costs linked to the economic or technical depreciation of the goods);
[[image:Maritime_growth.gif]]
• Inventory costs linked to the holding of safety stocks
• Indirect logistics costs linked to the aggregated quality within the transport chain and the willingness of the various actors involved to tune operations to the customer’s requirements, e.g. in terms of responsiveness to variable flows, information provision and ease of administration.


David:
In 2007, world seaborne trade (goods loaded) increased by 4,8% to surpass 8 billion tons for the first time. World container port throughput grew by an estimated 11,7% to reach 485 million TEUs in 2007. Chinese ports accounted for about 28,4% of total world container port throughput. (source: Unctad, ‘Review of Maritime Transport 2008’). The world shipping trade map looked as follows:


20. What are the effects of the financial crisis on the world trade in 2009?
[[Image:world_trade_map.jpg]]
World trade declined more than 11% in the first quarter of 2009. The declines are the largest ever. If we annualize these figures, the total decline will be 38%.


After years of economic growth, the maritime trade had flourished. Major driving forces in the shipping industry had driven the maritime trade during new heights during the 1990s and the first decade of the new millennium. It was only the financial crisis of 2008 and 2009 that the shipping industry came grinding to a halt.


21. What developments in Port performance can we observe?
This is the starting point for our scenarios
Ports are facing increasing demands for a quick turnaround of vessels from customers with increasing size of ships. The main bottleneck in port performance is crane handling. Ports have not made any significant breakthroughs in container handling, neither does there appear to be any new radical solutions on the horizon.
In the “Review of MaritimeTransport 2007” is was reported that, in Shenzhen, China, a crane capable of lifting 3 FEU’s (forty-foot-equivalents) came into operation. These crane improved the container handling from 60 boxes per hour to 64 boxes an hour. If a ship contains more than 5000 containers, these improvements don’t make much difference.
A concept to further improve container handling efficiency has led one crane manufacturer to design, on paper, a crane capable of handling 4 FEU’s simultaneously.


22. How does the Logistics supply chain look like?


*[[Sisyphus]]
*[[Big is Beautiful: Happy days are here again!]]
*[[The Pig with lipstick wins]]
*[[Trade 2.0]]


==Numbers that matter==


Environmental improvements in maritime shipping
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jpEnFwiqdx8&feature=PlayList&p=653D615A724866F2&playnext=1&playnext_from=PL&index=1
The maritime shipping industry is looking for ways to improve their environmental impact and overall cost structure. One major innovation is the use of skysails, see www.skysails.info .
Depending on the prevailing wind conditions, a ship’s average annual fuel costs can be reduced by 10 to 35% by using the SkySails-System. Under optimal wind conditions, fuel consumption can temporarily be cut by up to 50%.
The first commercial ships are using the SkySails right now and are being rewarded for their environmental improvement .

Latest revision as of 15:00, 10 March 2010

Team Members:

  1. Maria Marcos
  2. Mirjam Terhorst
  3. Andreas Schuil
  4. David Verberne

"Work under construction. In case you have any questions, additions or comments, please do not edit these pages, but you are more than welcome to contact us.'

Driving forces:

New Driving forces:

  1. Piracy
  2. Containerization
  3. Maritime Transportation security
  4. Consumer’s responsibility CO2 footprint
  5. Consumer/customer demands regarding speed of service/delivery
  6. Improvement through inventions
  7. Technical Innovation in the supply chain
  8. International Trade of goods
  9. The cost of freight shipping
  10. Building ‘green’
  11. Increase of Marine Pollution


Existing driving forces:

  1. Influence of the World Trade Organization (WTO)
  2. Increasing Use of e-Commerce
  3. Global Warming
  4. The increasing globalization of markets‎

Research Questions:

Systems Diagram

this is the result after some serious thinking in class and some non-serious braindump in a team meeting (many thanks to the "Old Dutch".

PA161959.jpg

After processing the Post-it and lines chaos in some kind of mind mapping software, this is the result:

Systems map.jpg

Scenario's graph

Scenariov5.png

Scenario's stories

Due to globalization, maritime traffic has more than tripled over the last decades and is expected to continue growing. Growing demand from developed economies of North America, Europe and Japan leads to an increase in energy, container and mineral cargoes. Globalization leads to an international division of the production and consumption. Technical improvements in ship and maritime terminals facilitate the flows of freight. Economies of scale permit maritime transportation to remain a low cost mode, a trend which is strengthened by containerization.

Figure 1. Development of international seaborne trade, selected years (millions of tons)

Maritime growth.gif

In 2007, world seaborne trade (goods loaded) increased by 4,8% to surpass 8 billion tons for the first time. World container port throughput grew by an estimated 11,7% to reach 485 million TEUs in 2007. Chinese ports accounted for about 28,4% of total world container port throughput. (source: Unctad, ‘Review of Maritime Transport 2008’). The world shipping trade map looked as follows:

World trade map.jpg

After years of economic growth, the maritime trade had flourished. Major driving forces in the shipping industry had driven the maritime trade during new heights during the 1990s and the first decade of the new millennium. It was only the financial crisis of 2008 and 2009 that the shipping industry came grinding to a halt.

This is the starting point for our scenarios


Numbers that matter

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jpEnFwiqdx8&feature=PlayList&p=653D615A724866F2&playnext=1&playnext_from=PL&index=1

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