Difference between revisions of "The Future of Maritime trade in 2020 and the implications for the port of Amsterdam"

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# Mirjam Terhorst
# Mirjam Terhorst
# Andreas Schuil
# Andreas Schuil
# Eduard de Visser
# David Verberne
# David Verberne
''"Work under construction. In case you have any questions, additions or comments, please do not edit these pages, but you are more than welcome to [mailto:d.verberne@kpnplanet.nl contact us].'''
<br>


== Driving forces: ==
== Driving forces: ==
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*[[How have shipping rates developed as per the recession?]]
*[[How have shipping rates developed as per the recession?]]
*[[What’s the difference between deep sea and short-sea shipping?]]
*[[What’s the difference between deep sea and short-sea shipping?]]
*[[What are the current other (competing) methods of small vessel shipping transport (i.e. short-sea shipping)?]]
*[[What are the current other (competing) methods of small vessel shipping transport (i.e. short-sea shipping)?]]
*[[What currency dominates what shipping market?]]
*[[What currency dominates what shipping market?]]
*[[What is the SEEMP?]]
*[[What is the SEEMP?]]
 
*[[How is maritime trade developing over the last decades?]]
 
*[[What is the impact of containerization?]]
Eduard
*[[What are the main ports in Europe?]]
6. How is maritime trade developing over the last decades?
*[[What are ship size developments?]]
 
*[[What are security issues in maritime trade?]]
Due to globalization, maritime traffic has more than tripled over the last decades and is expected to continue growing
*[[What is RFID?]]
Growing demand from developed economies of North America, Europe and Japan leads to an increase in energy, container and mineral cargoes. Globalization leads to an international division of the production and consumption. Technical improvements in ship and maritime terminals facilitate the flows of freight. Economies of scale permit maritime transportation to remain a low cost mode, a trend which is strengthened by containerization.
Figure 1. Development of international seaborne trade, selected years (millions of tons)
In 2007, world seaborne trade (goods loaded) increased by 4,8% to surpass 8 billion tons for the first time. World container port throughput grew by an estimated 11,7% to reach 485 million TEUs in 2007. Chinese ports accounted for about 28,4% of total world container port throughput.
 
 
7. What is the impact of containerization?
Containerization has revolutionized cargo shipping. Today, approximately 90% of non-bulk cargo worldwide moves by containers stacked on transport ships [9]; 26% of all containers originate from China.[citation needed] As of 2005, some 18 million total containers make over 200 million trips per year. There are ships that can carry over 14,500 twenty-foot equivalent units (TEU), for example the Emma Mærsk, 396 m long, launched August 2006. It has even been predicted that, at some point, container ships will be constrained in size only by the depth of the Straits of Malacca—one of the world's busiest shipping lanes—linking the Indian Ocean to the Pacific Ocean. This so-called Malaccamax size constrains a ship to dimensions of 470 m in length and 60 m wide (1542 feet by 197 feet).
However, few initially foresaw the extent of the influence containerization would bring to the shipping industry. In the 1950s, Harvard University economist Benjamin Chinitz predicted that containerization would benefit New York by allowing it to ship industrial goods produced there more cheaply to the Southern United States than other areas, but did not anticipate that containerization might make it cheaper to import such goods from abroad. Most economic studies of containerization merely assumed that shipping companies would begin to replace older forms of transportation with containerization, but did not predict that the process of containerization itself would have some influence on producers and the extent of trading.[6]
The widespread use of ISO standard containers has driven modifications in other freight-moving standards, gradually forcing removable truck bodies or swap bodies into the standard sizes and shapes (though without the strength needed to be stacked), and changing completely the worldwide use of freight pallets that fit into ISO containers or into commercial vehicles.
Improved cargo security is also an important benefit of containerization. The cargo is not visible to the casual viewer and thus is less likely to be stolen and the doors of the containers are generally sealed so that tampering is more evident. This has reduced the "falling off the truck" syndrome that long plagued the shipping industry.
Use of the same basic sizes of containers across the globe has lessened the problems caused by incompatible rail gauge sizes in different countries. The majority of the rail networks in the world operate on a 1,435 mm (4 ft 8+1⁄2 in) gauge track known as standard gauge but many countries (such as Russia, India, Finland, and Spain) use broader gauges while many other countries in Africa and South America use narrower gauges on their networks. The use of container trains in all these countries makes trans-shipment between different gauge trains easier.
 
 
 
8. What are the main ports in Europe?
 
During the last 10 years the European Ports have grown over 3% per annum (CAGR). The Amsterdam Seaports have performed well above average together with other ports such as Bremen and Hamburg. The Port of Rotterdam is still, by far the largest port in Europe, measured in gross tonnage. In 2008 the Amsterdam Seaports had a market share in the Hamburg-Le Havre range of 7,7%.  The Port of Amsterdam, the 4th largest in Northern Europe, has grown over 5,4% per year the last ten years.
Figure 2. Port Performance in the Hamburg-Le Havre Range 10 years
 
9. What are ship size developments?
Even larger containers vessels of up to 14,000 teu (i.e. Suez-max) are forecast to enter service before 2012. Continuing trend towards, larger ships is driving shippers to look for deep-water port locations. Increasing vessel sizes, requires specific infrastructure, handling capacity and hinterland throughput garanties. The draught and other infrastructure demands of such vessels are expected to be too much for many established smaller ports.
 
 
 
10. What are security issues in maritime trade?
 
Port security refers to the defense, law and treaty enforcement, and counterterrorism activities that fall within the port and maritime domain. It includes the protection of the seaports themselves, the protection and inspection of the cargo moving through the ports, and maritime security.
Internationally, port security is governed by rules issued by the International Maritime Organization and its 2002 International Ship and Port Facility Security Code. Additionally, some U.S.-based programs have become de facto global port security programs, including the Container Security Initiative and the Customs Trade Partnership against Terrorism.
 
 
 
 
11. What is RFID?
RFID stands for Radio Frequency Identification. It enables tracking and tracing of goods and vessels and thereby is a big enabler of efficiency, security and customer intimacy of maritime transportation.
 
*[[What is the trend of world imports and its forecast?]]
*[[What is the trend of world imports and its forecast?]]
*[[What is the trend of world exports and its forecast?]]
*[[What is the trend of world exports and its forecast?]]
*[[What is the trend of the industrial production of advance economies?]]
*[[What is the trend of the industrial production of advance economies?]]
*[[What is the trend of the world consumer prices?]]
*[[What is the trend of the world consumer prices?]]
*[[What is TEU?]]
*[[What is TEU?]]
*[[What are the top European container ports?]]
*[[What are the top European container ports?]]
*[[What are the top European liquid bulk ports?]]


*[[On what criteria is a port selected?]]
*[[What are the effects of the financial crisis on the world trade in 2009?]]
*[[What developments in Port performance can we observe?]]
*[[How does the Logistics supply chain look like?]]
*[[Environmental improvements in maritime shipping]]


==Systems Diagram==
this is the result after some serious thinking in class and some non-serious braindump in a team meeting (many thanks to the "Old Dutch".


[[Image:PA161959.jpg‎ ]]


After processing the Post-it and lines chaos in some kind of mind mapping software, this is the result:


*[[What are the top European liquid bulk ports?]]
[[Image:Systems map.jpg]]


==Scenario's graph==


[[Image:Scenariov5.png]]


==Scenario's stories==
Due to globalization, maritime traffic has more than tripled over the last decades and is expected to continue growing. Growing demand from developed economies of North America, Europe and Japan leads to an increase in energy, container and mineral cargoes. Globalization leads to an international division of the production and consumption. Technical improvements in ship and maritime terminals facilitate the flows of freight. Economies of scale permit maritime transportation to remain a low cost mode, a trend which is strengthened by containerization.


19. On what criteria is a port selected?
Figure 1. Development of international seaborne trade, selected years (millions of tons)
 
Traditionally primarily the standalone physical attributes of a port are considered such as
 
• the physical and technical infrastructure
• the geographical location
• port efficiency
• interconnectivity of the port
• quality and costs of auxiliary services such as pilotage, towage, customs, etc..,
• efficiency and costs of port management and administration
• availability, quality and costs of logistic value-added activities
• availability, quality and costs of port community systems
• portsecurity/safety and environmental profile of the port
• port reputation
• reliability,capacity, frequency and costs of inland transport services by truck, rail and barge.
 
But more recently people are starting to base the choice for ports on overall network cost and performance. This adds the next three points


• Time costs of the goods (opportunity costs linked to the capital tied up in the transported goods and costs linked to the economic or technical depreciation of the goods);
[[image:Maritime_growth.gif]]
• Inventory costs linked to the holding of safety stocks
• Indirect logistics costs linked to the aggregated quality within the transport chain and the willingness of the various actors involved to tune operations to the customer’s requirements, e.g. in terms of responsiveness to variable flows, information provision and ease of administration.


David:
In 2007, world seaborne trade (goods loaded) increased by 4,8% to surpass 8 billion tons for the first time. World container port throughput grew by an estimated 11,7% to reach 485 million TEUs in 2007. Chinese ports accounted for about 28,4% of total world container port throughput. (source: Unctad, ‘Review of Maritime Transport 2008’). The world shipping trade map looked as follows:


20. What are the effects of the financial crisis on the world trade in 2009?
[[Image:world_trade_map.jpg]]
World trade declined more than 11% in the first quarter of 2009. The declines are the largest ever. If we annualize these figures, the total decline will be 38%.


After years of economic growth, the maritime trade had flourished. Major driving forces in the shipping industry had driven the maritime trade during new heights during the 1990s and the first decade of the new millennium. It was only the financial crisis of 2008 and 2009 that the shipping industry came grinding to a halt.


21. What developments in Port performance can we observe?
This is the starting point for our scenarios
Ports are facing increasing demands for a quick turnaround of vessels from customers with increasing size of ships. The main bottleneck in port performance is crane handling. Ports have not made any significant breakthroughs in container handling, neither does there appear to be any new radical solutions on the horizon.
In the “Review of MaritimeTransport 2007” is was reported that, in Shenzhen, China, a crane capable of lifting 3 FEU’s (forty-foot-equivalents) came into operation. These crane improved the container handling from 60 boxes per hour to 64 boxes an hour. If a ship contains more than 5000 containers, these improvements don’t make much difference.
A concept to further improve container handling efficiency has led one crane manufacturer to design, on paper, a crane capable of handling 4 FEU’s simultaneously.


22. How does the Logistics supply chain look like?


*[[Sisyphus]]
*[[Big is Beautiful: Happy days are here again!]]
*[[The Pig with lipstick wins]]
*[[Trade 2.0]]


==Numbers that matter==


Environmental improvements in maritime shipping
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jpEnFwiqdx8&feature=PlayList&p=653D615A724866F2&playnext=1&playnext_from=PL&index=1
The maritime shipping industry is looking for ways to improve their environmental impact and overall cost structure. One major innovation is the use of skysails, see www.skysails.info .
Depending on the prevailing wind conditions, a ship’s average annual fuel costs can be reduced by 10 to 35% by using the SkySails-System. Under optimal wind conditions, fuel consumption can temporarily be cut by up to 50%.
The first commercial ships are using the SkySails right now and are being rewarded for their environmental improvement .

Latest revision as of 15:00, 10 March 2010

Team Members:

  1. Maria Marcos
  2. Mirjam Terhorst
  3. Andreas Schuil
  4. David Verberne

"Work under construction. In case you have any questions, additions or comments, please do not edit these pages, but you are more than welcome to contact us.'

Driving forces:

New Driving forces:

  1. Piracy
  2. Containerization
  3. Maritime Transportation security
  4. Consumer’s responsibility CO2 footprint
  5. Consumer/customer demands regarding speed of service/delivery
  6. Improvement through inventions
  7. Technical Innovation in the supply chain
  8. International Trade of goods
  9. The cost of freight shipping
  10. Building ‘green’
  11. Increase of Marine Pollution


Existing driving forces:

  1. Influence of the World Trade Organization (WTO)
  2. Increasing Use of e-Commerce
  3. Global Warming
  4. The increasing globalization of markets‎

Research Questions:

Systems Diagram

this is the result after some serious thinking in class and some non-serious braindump in a team meeting (many thanks to the "Old Dutch".

PA161959.jpg

After processing the Post-it and lines chaos in some kind of mind mapping software, this is the result:

Systems map.jpg

Scenario's graph

Scenariov5.png

Scenario's stories

Due to globalization, maritime traffic has more than tripled over the last decades and is expected to continue growing. Growing demand from developed economies of North America, Europe and Japan leads to an increase in energy, container and mineral cargoes. Globalization leads to an international division of the production and consumption. Technical improvements in ship and maritime terminals facilitate the flows of freight. Economies of scale permit maritime transportation to remain a low cost mode, a trend which is strengthened by containerization.

Figure 1. Development of international seaborne trade, selected years (millions of tons)

Maritime growth.gif

In 2007, world seaborne trade (goods loaded) increased by 4,8% to surpass 8 billion tons for the first time. World container port throughput grew by an estimated 11,7% to reach 485 million TEUs in 2007. Chinese ports accounted for about 28,4% of total world container port throughput. (source: Unctad, ‘Review of Maritime Transport 2008’). The world shipping trade map looked as follows:

World trade map.jpg

After years of economic growth, the maritime trade had flourished. Major driving forces in the shipping industry had driven the maritime trade during new heights during the 1990s and the first decade of the new millennium. It was only the financial crisis of 2008 and 2009 that the shipping industry came grinding to a halt.

This is the starting point for our scenarios


Numbers that matter

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jpEnFwiqdx8&feature=PlayList&p=653D615A724866F2&playnext=1&playnext_from=PL&index=1

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