The Da Vinci Code

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2005

The demand for new software, including Operating Systems and applications is reasonably stable and seeing no increase. This can be visible already with Microsoft pushing back its release of its next generation platform. Other major IT companies will most likely follow this trend.

The Big three keep there dominance, they only release updates, no major new releases. Open Source communities grow, and interest in Open Source grows from governments, funding in research and education increases.

2006

US and EU Universities are busy inventing new technologies. New companies are started and are invested into, this to further development of these technologies and make products with them for the business side. A majority of these new technologies are published as open source, with the goal to improve them by the interaction of the open source communities.

The big three have minimal interest in new technologies because they have no demand for them and they can make there money with the existing technologies available.

2007

The new technologies start arising and are further developed organizations get more involved to stimulate these universities. The Open Source communities are very active in developing these new technologies. The big three mostly ignore the new technologies and see them as a minimal threat; the demand stays low for these technologies.

2008

Managers hear a lot about the new technologies, they look at what these new technologies have to offer, some try them out of curiosity but the majority see no advantage in them.

The big three get a little worried; they start looking deeper in the new technologies and start investing a bit internally. Also they buy up one or two companies with that expertise. The think, maybe if there does come a demand, we can be to late.

2009

The global demand for new technologies stays out. Companies are satisfied with the technologies they have. O/S communities continue to developed the technologies and look for new ones.

The big three are still safe with minor threat from the small companies offering the new technologies.

2010

Open Source communities endure hard times due to no interest in the technologies. Interest in the new technologies start to decrease somewhat, because is has no significant advantage for companies.

The big three keep there dominance.

2011

Governments pull out of supporting and subsidizing Open Source and these new technology companies, this because these technologies bring no advantage for them and they would rather focus on efficiency and minimizing there cost. These last points also count for most companies, and they decide to see off form investing in new technologies. They can get what they expect from the big three.

2012

Demand for new technologies stay out and small companies which have come with these technologies come in problems, they are bought up by the big companies of file for chapter 11.