Difference between revisions of "Scenario Quality Ranking"

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'''Group 1'''<br>
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<Rank High>
Internet Commerce:
free internet service provision 2003 (1996)
Good contents: Clear explanation in Trend and Matrix makes Scenario convincing.
Good presentation: Easy to follow, nice visual impression
 
<Rank Middle>
Health:
health in 2010 (1996)
OK contents: Interesting contents, but relationship between driving forces and scenarios is vague.
OK presentation: Easy to follow, but not so well visual impression
 
 
<Rank Middle>
Work and Organizations:
Organizations 2020 (1997)
OK contenst: The story is credible, but sometimes too complex and little techonoly implications
OK presentation: The prentation is easy to follow, could include some visuals
 
 
<Rank Low>
Industry sectors:
Leisure 2010 (1999)
OK contenst: The story is credible, but future can be a mixure of all scenarios
Not good presentation: Not easy to follow, not clear sequence of the project
 
 
<Rank Low>
Telecommunications:
telcoms 2003 (1996)
 
Not good contents: Overall story is not convincing. The axis for scenarios seems unreflected.
OK presentation: Easy to follow, but not so well visual impression
 
 
 
'''Group 2'''<br>
BEST
Human Relationships in 2015
:Reasons: Original, easy to understand, linkage between elements
Telecommunications in 2015
:Reasons: Well-researched, detailed, in places uncany in predicting future. Signposts were good. Crowded waters scenario especially strong.
Leisure in 2010
:Reasons: Well researched, organized and presented.
Distance Education in 2010
:Reasons: Easy to read, nice framework, it goes to the point
Branding in 2005
:Reasons: easy to understand, takes into account not only marketing concepts
Workspace in 2010
:Reasons: some parts were really good, but others not. Overall, it doesn't look like an integrated document/proposal. No conclusions.
Food Retailing in 2006
:Reasons: Focused on Alberthein in Netherlands too narrow, Difficult to read, Not very revolutionary ideas
Electronic Cash in 2010
:Reasons: Disorganized and not so clearly presented, there is no clear explanation how electronic cash can affect society.
Telecommunications in 2003
:Reasons: Not well thought out. Unclear.  Basic assumptions left unstated.  Research was very poor.  Scenarios not believable--actors did things that were illogical given the scenario laid out.
Internet in 2005
:Reasons: Unoriginal, not forward looking enough, no linkage between elements, badly organized
 
 
 
'''Group 3'''<br>
Dear scenario-thinkers,
 
please explore our way of thinking and our results!
 
'''''Short introduction to our evaluation process:'''''
#Developing criteria catalogue for assessing scenarios: five process, three quality, three presentation criteria
#Screening all scenarios
#Chose 5 most recent ones (4 group scenarios, 1 class scenario) to analyze in depth
#Everyone of group individually assessed these 5 scenarios according to the criteria catalogue (reasoning: everyone has same starting point for discussion, increase common understanding, learning experience of group larger)
#Merging the individual results and discussing the final ranking
 
 
'''''Criteria catalogue for assessing scenarios:'''''
*Process, quality and presentation (effectiveness, efficiency and presentation)
*Weighting 40% - 40% - 20% to emphasize content over lay-out
*Please also refer to the attached picture
 
 
'''''Ranking results'''''
 
 
[[Image:Group3-Ranking.png|thumb|Description]]
 
'''''Rank 1: Genetic revolution'''''
 
*'''Process:''' Introduction is present, good/deep structured assessment of driving forces, indicators and monitoring process missing
 
*'''Quality:''' very consistent in approach, detailed argumentation
 
*'''Presentation:''' good structure and creative presentation of the scenarios
 
 
'''''Rank 2: Leisure'''''
 
*'''Process:''' reflected on indicators and implications, chosen matrix easy to understand, causal relationship scheme missing
 
*'''Quality:''' no referencing present, consistent in approach, broad mindset
 
*'''Presentation:''' no logical structure, not attractive/boring coloring
 
 
'''''Rank 3: Interpersonal communication'''''
 
*'''Process:''' no focal issues, good causal scheme but no interpretation, indicators and monitoring process missing
 
*'''Quality:''' missing depth in scenarios, consistent however
 
*'''Presentation:''' well structured, nice layout but cold be more entertaining, no consistency in the language
 
 
'''''Rank 4: Childhood Freedom'''''
 
*'''Process:''' bad introduction, missing steps, over structured in depth of driving forces (image as a whole not present, confusing), choice of axes mysterious
 
*'''Quality:''' reasoning and in-depth analysis lacking, consistency good, good wrapping of ideas
 
*'''Presentation:''' original, logistics are hidden
 
 
'''''Rank 5: Information Society (Class project)'''''
 
*'''Process:''' no introduction, no focal issues, no reasoning behind thinking, no transparency, no causality
 
*'''Quality:''' no consistency, no sufficient depth of argumentation
 
*'''Presentation:''' no structure, no consistency in lay-out
 
 
'''''Lessons learned and take-away from this exercise'''''
 
*follow the right procedures and steps
*ensure clear links between the steps
*warning indicators + monitoring process have to be present
*transparency in reasoning
*goal: balance between structure & creativity
*balance between conciseness (focus/summary) and depth (and NOT volume)
*Define structure of presentation beforehand
*Properly select colors and layout for readability and usability
*'''The class presentation was the worst one due to lack of consistency and structure. It is therefore very important for the whole class that we have coordinating role to ensure a successful project'''
 
 
 
== '''Group 4 - "Group For Waikiki"'''<br> ==
 
Dear fellow strategists -- here are our picks from [http://dtn.info.nl/ Daniel Erasmus' DTN site] (go to Scenario Thinking/ Student Projects):
 
 
'''BEST IN CLASS:''' Distance Education 2011 (1996): 36 out of 40
 
'''WORST IN CLASS:''' Health in 2010 (1996): 15 out of 40
 
 
'''The eight criteria we used for evaluating the scenarios were:'''
 
'''''Content Analysis'''''
 
*Relevant use and critique of theory, academic references, literature, traditional beliefs
 
*Analysis of the issue with personal insight
 
*Discussion and logical development of arguments
 
*Quality of the section about scenarios
 
*Other options/new directions for thought for the public
 
*Synthesis of material
 
'''''Design & Gestalt'''''
 
*Aesthetics & Consistency:  Aesthetics, colors, size & font of text, choice of pictures, drawings, look & feel
 
*User friendliness: Use of a site map, working links, clear navigation directions
 
'''''Rating scale for each of the criterion'''''
 
5 = Excellent, 4 = Very good, 3 = Acceptable, 2 = Meets minimum requirements 1 = Insufficient
 
'''''Total possible score: 40'''''
 
 
'''''RANKINGS OF 10 SAMPLE SCENARIOS, LISTED BEST TO LAST'''''
 
1. Distance Education 2011 (1996): 36 out of 40 (rated by Lucia Nedelcu)
 
2. Genetic Revolution: 30 out of 40 (rated by Mari Smith)
 
3. Relationships 2020 (1997): 29 out of 40 (rated by Claudie Chaumette)
 
4. Crime 2015 (1997): 25 out of 40 (rated by Eser Torun)
 
5. Interpersonal Communication: 23 out of 40 (rated by Spencer Rosen)
 
6. Free Internet Service Provision 2003 (1996): 20 out of 40 (rated by Spencer Rosen)
 
7. Branding 2005 (1999): 19 out of 40 (rated by Eser Torun)
 
8. Leisure 2010 (1999): 19 out of 40 (rated by Mari Smith)
 
9. Internet Banking: 18 out of 40 (rated by Lucia Nedelcu)
 
10. Health in 2010 (1996): 15 out of 40 (rated by Claudie Chaumette)
 
[http://us.f1f.yahoofs.com/bc/4f83f18d/bc/Word+Attachments/ranking+of+scenarios_final.pdf?bfHsWiBBUgEW00YE DETAILED EXPLANATION OF RATINGS & WRITTEN REVIEW OF SCENARIOS]
 
 
 
'''Group 5'''<br>
We are:
Edo Avraham, Lars Eriksen, Kentaro Kodaka, Taro Honda, Daniel Perez Whitaker
[http://dtn.info.nl/ScenarioThinking/StudentProjects.htm Why couldn't ANYONE post this link!]
 
Scale used: Between 0-100, with 25=insufficient, 50=adequate, 75=good
 
'''The Information Society'''
Grade: 75
Reasons: It has some very bold statements about the future. Of course they will not happen because their scenarios were for 2005, but quite a few situations are mind opening, Clockwork Orange like.
 
'''Telcoms 2003 (1996)'''
Grade: 70
Reasons: Well coverage on PEST. Technology and industry insights such as extinction of AT&T / IP phone -Concentration of governmental regulations which is the largest constrain to telecom companies It should have been structured and mentioned step by step (ex. driving forces / uncertainties) and should have researched more on IP phone services and its superiority so that conclusion may be different. As a whole it’s still too simplistic. The two main drivers used are inadequate and cannot be selected as the only ones because of their limited application (i.e. User Demand and Level of Restriction). Many of the downsides mentioned view it in a 1996 technological limitations which not only in hindsight could have been ignored for the requirements of the exercise. Analysis is too naïve (cyber terrorism has been in existence without these conditions.
 
'''Crime 2015 (1997)'''
Grade: 65
Reasons: A good composition of drivers (across most aspects). Sensible conclusions that was reduced to two scenarios with some plausible perceptions. Better
 
'''Telecommunications 2015 (1997) '''
Grade: 60
Reasons: Well researched on PEST exhaustively. But it should have been structured and mentioned step by step (ex. driving forces / uncertainties). Less exhaustive coverage on PEST in scenario planning phase if seeing 2015, especially seamless services by mobile and ISP providers should have been mentioned.
 
'''The Leisure in 2010'''
Grade: 50
Reasons: Very well structured and developed but the effect of Internet on society and leisure was a bit exaggerated.
 
'''Delivery of entertainment 2006 (1996)'''
Grade: 35
Reasons: The guy that wrote the whole scenario texts in UPPERCASE should be shot. Impossible to read. Content assumes technology as the main driver, while social and economical changes are ignored. The basic Porter’s 5 Forces Model is ignored as a basis for foretelling the main drivers for the changes. Read without refinement its mostly preposterous.
 
'''Food Retailing 2006 (1996) (Scenarios for supermarket retailing and the Internet)'''
Grade: 35
Reasons: Discusses supermarket retailing exclusively through the Albert Heijn example. Process is clear but results are with such small differences that it’s either not ambitious enough or there is just too little breadth of variations. The original title “Food Retailing 2006” has a lot more options besides than focusing on AH. Not properly proofed shows lack of professionalism.
 
'''Group 6'''<br>Ranked in order of preference (from best to worst):
 
Genetic Revolution
Very current and important topic for the future, well researched and a clear structured presentation. Most comprehensive scenario analysis. Good analysis of the driving forces, nice diagram.
 
Telecommunications 2015
Good presentation style but unfortunately not well structured although we did like the sailing analogy and graphics. Extensive analysis of the PEST driving forces.
 
Childhood freedom in 2020
Very unique although it needs a diagram. Quite hard to navigate. Rich in content but lacks an introduction.
 
Leisure 2010
Dull website lacking in-depth analysis as well as poor organization and presentation.
 
Organisations 2020
Another very dull website with broken links and hard to find the information. Overall scenario seems dubious.
 
Crime 2015
Very mediocre. Not very aesthetically pleasing – poor presentation although it has a good analysis of the drivers.

Latest revision as of 06:14, 2 June 2010

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