Scenario 2 : Everything on the web are freely available - No existing Intellectual Property
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2010 - Manipulatable data on internet and businesses keep changing
Traditional intermediars (businesses whcih where selling/distributing music, movies, software on the internet) businesses have either completely or partly changed their businesses or diminished.
Software businesses generate the revenue by their service businesses, no longer by the sales of software. They differentiate in terms of the quality of their services and are doing quite well.
Software development gets a boost and very high quality and innovative software are developed in contribution of the software developing community of the internet. New, evolutionary algoritms are invented/developed.
On the other hand we have the depression of 3th world countries because of the strong and numerous IP laws. Innovation or any other form of business in the 3th world countries, especially on the internet, are being stagnated by the IPP laws. Existing and upcoming SME are diminishing as a result of IP laws.
As a result of all the freely available and manupilatable data on the internet, misleading and not reliable information arise online. The existing technology are not intended yet to protect this kind of misuse and manupilation of data by any means of tracking down the perpetrator.
2011 - Creative Commons replaces tight IPP rules
A war between the big companies (10% of the business world) & stakeholders & SME & 3th world countries (90% of the business world) is inclining to end in favor of the latter.
In the meantime new ways of internet criminality have arised. The Government comes with rules against criminality online.
A new form now completely replaces the old form where copyrights and patents thwarted knowledge sharing, and ultimatily creative development; and also where patents were most of the time used for the wrong purposes.
The form of IPP that we have now, is one that encourages knowledge sharing, one that gives the owner of the intellectual property more options than only copyright. One that is not meant to completely replace copyrights, but only to offer some more options, like "allowance to use the material of this scientific research, if you mention the authors name". This form of IPP is nowadays already known as Creative Commons (CC); in 2010 CC will be gloablly used, together with te open standards, open software and open content.