Ling-Chin Fan

Rreseaerch:

Oil Supply and Demand Dynamics
Increasing Commitment from China
OPEC Japan

Learning Log:

Session 1: 16th Aug

1. The first step of scenario is to understand the business and the mindset of the organization.
2. What is a good strategy: a good strategy should be fitted with any issue will be happened in the future.
3. Each scenario story should have equal possibility, otherwise, decision maker will only choose the only one scenario story with highest possibility. Which means the result becomes more like a simple forecast, rather than a orgainic strategy decision.
4. Scenario thinking is a process to install new or crazy ideas in managers or boards in an organization.
5. Make "out of scope" catagory to group each uncertainty. 6. Why the number matters: because the outcome can let us to think in an impossible way.