Key Environmental Drivers - China in 2030

What are the key drivers behind China's current environmental state?

The number of households in China has grown almost three times as fast as its population during 1985-2000. The average household has decreased from 4.5 to 3.5 people and because smaller households consume more resources per person, China’s rapid increase in household number and reduction in household size have had significant environmental consequences. China is also becoming more urban. From 1952 to 2003, the country's proportionate urban population tripled from 13% to 39%. (Liu & Diamond, 2005)

Another driving force behind China's current environmental situation is due to its economic growth. China is a large consumer of fertilizer and pesticides. The consumption of these industrial and agricultural products leads to air, water and land pollution and other forms of environmental damage. With increasing affluence, China’s per capita consumption of meat, milk and eggs increased four-, four- and eightfold, respectively, between 1978 and 2002. This means more agricultural wastes, animal droppings, fish droppings, fish food and fertilizer for aquaculture, tending to increase terrestrial and aquatic pollution. Additionally, China’s transportation network and number of vehicles have grown explosively. In 1994, after the number of motor vehicles had increased to six times the 1980 figure, China decided to make car production one of its four ‘pillar industries’ to stimulate economic growth, with the goal of increasing production (especially of cars) by another factor of four by 2010. This would make China the world’s third-largest vehicle manufacturer, after the United States and Japan — with obvious implications for highway expansion at the expense of arable land, greater dependence on imported oil, and the recently improved but still poor air quality in cities such as Beijing. Further, much of China’s economy — such as coal-mining and cement, paper and chemical production — still rests on outdated, inefficient or polluting technology, and overall industrial energy efficiency is only half that of the developed world. Coal is the country’s primary energy source and the main cause of its air pollution and acid rain. Although solar and wind power are potentially significant renewable energy sources, hydroelectricity will become more important over the next decade, particularly with the expected completion of the controversial 18.2-gigawatt Three Gorges Dam project in 2009. China is hosting the world’s three biggest development projects, all of which are expected to cause severe environmental problems. The Three Gorges Dam on the Yangtze River — the world’s largest dam, begun in 1993 and projected for completion in 2009 —aims to provide electricity, flood control and improved navigation at a cost of $30 billion, social costs of uprooting millions of people, and environmental costs associated with landslides, water pollution, soil erosion, biodiversity losses and the disruption of the ecosystem of the world’s third-longest river. Still more expensive is the South-to-North Water Diversion Project, which began in 2002 but is not scheduled for completion until around 2050. It is projected to cost $59 billion, to spread pollution, and to cause water imbalance in the Yangtze. Even that project will be exceeded by the ongoing development of western China, comprising over half of the country’s land area and viewed by China’s leaders as the key to national development.(Liu & Diamond, 2005)

Although China has made strides in writing environmental protection policy, the country still lags in execution of these policies. China declared environmental protection a basic national principle in 1983, laid out a broad strategy to achieve sustainable development in 1994, and in 1996 developed its first five-year plan on environmental protection. In 2003, the government proposed a new development concept emphasizing humanism and attempting to achieve sustainable development and harmony between man and nature, as well as coordinated socioeconomic progress among various regions and with foreign countries. In reality, although there has been much effort to control environmental degradation, economic development often takes priority at the local level and is still the main criterion for judging government officials’ performance. (Liu & Diamond, 2005) In 2006, premier Wen Jiabao listed three changes that China needs: to move from a GDP-centered model of growth to one that balances economy and environment and seeks the development of environmental protection; to change from a view of environmental protection as an obstacle to economic growth to the development of economy and environment in tandem; and to institute a range of methods to help resolve environmental problems. (Jun, 2007)

Public environmental awareness is low, in part because China’s investment in education is less than half that of developed countries as a proportion of gross national production. Despite holding 20% of the world’s population, China’s educational funding accounts for only 1% of world investment. Most parents cannot afford to send their children to university, because one year’s tuition would consume the average salary of one city worker or three rural workers. When there are conflicts between environmental protection and economic development, the former often loses to the latter. Economic performance often overshadows environmental protection as a criterion for selection and promotion of government officials.