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= | [[File:India flag.gif|thumb| Indian Flag|300px]] | ||
= Affects of Climate Change on India = | |||
[[File:India topo.jpg|thumb| Indian Topography |300px]] | |||
== Agriculture == | |||
- Agriculture and rural society would face maximum disruptions. India would possibly need a second Green Revolution. Considering a range of equilibrium climate change scenarios which project a temperature rise of 2.5oC to 4.9oC for India, it is estimated that:<br> | |||
(a) Without considering the carbon dioxide fertilization effects, yield losses for rice and wheat vary between 32-40% and 41-52%, respectively.<br> | |||
(b) GDP would drop by between 1.8 to 3.4%.<br> | |||
== Sea Level Rise == | |||
- Flooding of coastal areas and an estimated displacement of about 20-60 million people living in Indian coasts<br> | |||
- About 35% of Bangladesh would be submerged with 1m rise in sea level causing many millions to seek refuge in India.<br> | |||
Mass migration within India & from Bangladesh/Srilanka towards Indian mainland would cause severe congestion which Indian cities are ill-equipped to manage.<br> | |||
== Other Effects == | |||
1. Climate change will exacerbate the existing inequalities in Indian society and economy. This could cause severe internal disruptions | |||
2. There is high risk of failure of densely populated, agriculturally dependent, under developed and politically unstable states of India due to disruptions caused by after effects of climate change | |||
3. Water scarcity are expected and an increased probability of disputes with neighbours China/Bangladesh/Pakistan. | |||
4. Public health would be drastically affected | |||
5. High but irregular frequency of natural phenomenon such as cyclones, floods, draughts are expected. | |||
= Indian Perspective, Policies & Priorities = | |||
- Emission reduction imposes costs in terms of lower GDP and higher poverty in India. Based on estimates a 30% CO2 reduction over a period of 30 years using annual emissions reduction targets leads to a fall in GDP of 4% and raises the number of poor by 17.5% in the 30th year (that is, if 2000 were taken as the baseline, these changes would occur by 2030). <br> | |||
- Cumulative emission reduction targets are, however, preferable to annual reduction targets and an optimum strategy where the country is free to decide when to reduce emissions as long as over 30 years the same amount of cumulative emissions are reduced. In this scenario the hardship of emission reductions with a cumulative reduction target of 30% (i.e. not specifying annual targets), the fall in GDP is 1.4% and increase in the number of poor is 6% in the 30th year both of which are less than in the case of annual reduction. <br> | |||
- Contrasted with these, scenarios involving tradable emission quotas give India an incentive to be carbon efficient. It becomes a net seller for the first 25 years, say up to 2020, if the quota are in the range of 1 ton per person as per 1995 population. Because of the reduction in carbon intensity due to the incentives provided by tradeable quota, less is emitted in later years when India becomes a net buyer. The results suggest that for India, and other developing countries, the window of opportunity to sell carbon quotas is only in the next two decades or so. Thus, precious time is lost during prolonged negotiations. <br> | |||
- Another concern of India is pricing of technology. There should be competition here. In a bilateral deal, the supplier of technology has monopoly power and the price charged for technology may be too high. <br> | |||
- India has an equity perspective on climate change consistent with China and developing nations; i.e. same per capita green house emissions. <br> | |||
- India would be anxious on an agreement between China and US. <br> | |||
- India feels: better to negotiate on technology than on reduction targets <br> | |||
- India is looking for a permanent seat in the UN Security Council.<br> | |||
- Due to meagre uranium reserves, India depends not only for technology but also fuel for advancement of its nuclear power plants.<br> | |||
- India has massive reserves of Thorium and spends considerable amounts of money on R&D to use thorium for power generation. It has technological expertise on reactors using thorium for power.<br> | |||
== India: A Unique Situation == | |||
- India is large resilient state and society having considerabe coping capacity with a stable democratic governance system.<br> | |||
- Inequality within different social segments in India: <br> | |||
1) ''Poor'' - Least equipped to handle climate change but most severly affected by consequences. They are the main drivers of the political clout as they are major voters. Very potent in swaying politicians based on their huge numbers. Convince them that climate change aversion is essetial for better quality of life and consequently they would push the state into action <br> | |||
2) ''Middle Class'' - Growing in number. Has interest in increasing economic activity and difficult too convince. Somewhat isolated from the worst effects of climate change due to its location in urban spots. <br> | |||
- NGOs/Think Tanks and Researc Institutes - Centres of execellence in a sea of mediocracity. Indian civil society lacks infrastructure to support their efforts <br> | |||
- Private Sector - Influntial voice in ploicy making. Several industrialist lobby against carbon caps in parliament. E.g sutomobile industry becoming the backbone of economic and industrial activity and trasportation in India (like US). Automobile industry lobbies hard for investment in roads than in efficient energy usage. <br> | |||
- Civil conflict - Several fault lines are present. <br> | |||
The actual effect of these would depend on timing, size, location and management of the conflict by Indian government. <br> | |||
a) Many times the inequalities within rural-urban, employed-unemployed, commercial-labouring groups manifest as religious conflicts and tensions <br> | |||
b) Religious/cultural fault lines of politicaly active groups aligned towards various orthodox fanatics/fundamentalists like Christians/Muslims/Hindus/Sikhs etc. <br> | |||
c) Maoists/Hindu Extremists/Muslim Extremists/New groups may emerge in most affectd (poor) areas to create conflict <br> | |||
== Priorities of the Indian Government == | |||
1/ Economic growth <br> | |||
2/ Poverty Alleviation <br> | |||
3/ National Security - Fundamentalist Muslims and Pakistan are major threat for India. Interplay and dynamics between China-Pakistan cooperation could affect Indian stand on climate change negotiations. India competes with China and is threatened by increasng prescence of Chineese military in the region (China plans to establish military bases in Bangladesh & Myanmaar). China maintains claim to some north-eastern Indian states (e.g. Arunachal Pradesh). | |||
==India's perspective on Copenhagen == | ==India's perspective on Copenhagen == | ||
India accounts for 5% of the current global GHG emissions. Even if this was reduced to zero, it would hardly have any effect on averting climate change. Unless other countries those responsible for much higher levels of emissions, such as the U.S. and China, with 20% each, were to achieve much more drastic reductions, the threat to India from Climate Change would remain undiminished. The glaciers would still melt and there would still be more frequent droughts or unseasonal rain. The Indian islands and low-lying coastal plains, would still get submerged due to sea-level rise. | |||
India sees this as a classic external economy dilemma: what I invest cannot be directly related to the outcome. It is equally possible that I benefit from what others invest in, since I stand to enjoy a global public good being created. Therefore, in dealing with cross-cutting, global issues such as Climate Change, it becomes necessary to align the external economies being generated with a burden-sharing arrangement that makes economic sense to the countries participating in the multilateral regime. | |||
India feels that nothing that China said or did at Copenhagen represented any noteworthy change in its stand on Climate issues and yet it was projected as the villain which stood in the way of a meaningful outcome. India believes, this had to do less with Climate Change and more with the disappointed expectations of the US and the . | |||
It appears to Indian negotiators that or financial resources to enable India to scale up its own ambitious efforts to deal with Climate Change. Therefore, India maintains that if it is being in any case tarred with the same brush as China was, does it not make sense for us to work with China | |||
= Mechanics Within India = | |||
[[File:Systems India.JPG|800px|thumb|centre|The Indian System]] | |||
= Facts And Figures = | |||
- Population: around 1.121 billion people in 2006 (2nd biggest worldwide)<br> | |||
- Area (coastal districts ) approx 379,610 Km2, <br> | |||
- Based on world bank estimates, number of poor people living under $1.25 day was about 456 million in 2005.<br> | |||
- A 1m Sea Level Rise would displace approx 7.1 million people, about 5,764 Km2 of land are will be lost, 4200 km of road<br> | |||
- Sea level rise would be highest along Gulf of Kutchh/ coast of West Bengal <br> | |||
- 8% of world's estimated coal reserves are in India <br> | |||
- 67% of world's estimated thorium reserves are in India <br> | |||
- Total Energy Consumption in India (2001E): 12.8 quadrillion Btu* (3.2% of world total energy consumption) <br> | |||
- Energy-Related Carbon Emissions (2001E): 251.3 million metric tons of carbon (3.8% of world total carbon emissions) <br> | |||
- Per Capita Energy Consumption (2001E): 12.6 million Btu (vs U.S. value of 341.8 million Btu) <br> | |||
- Sectoral Share of Energy Consumption (1998E): Industrial (41.0%), Transportation (9.5%), Residential (47.3%), Commercial (2.2%) <br> | |||
- Sectoral Share of Carbon Emissions (1998E): Industrial (67.3%), Transportation (15.6%), Residential (13.7%), Commercial (3.3%) <br> | |||
- Fuel Share of Energy Consumption (2001E): Coal (50.9%), Oil (34.4%), Natural Gas (6.5%) <br> | |||
- Fuel Share of Carbon Emissions (2001E): Coal (64.5%), Oil (30.3%), Natural Gas (5.2%)<br> | |||
= Resources = | = Resources = | ||
1. http://www.vifindia.org/node/299<br> | 1. http://www.vifindia.org/node/299<br> | ||
2. <br> | 2. http://www.cfr.org/publication/20186/time.html<br> | ||
3. <br> | 3. http://www.idsa.in/event/SecurityImplicationsofClimateChangeforIndia<br> | ||
4. <br> | 4. http://www.eeo.com.cn/ens/Observer/opinion_analysis/2010/06/29/174073.shtml<br> | ||
5. <br> | 5. http://www.iied.org/climate-change/key-issues/climate-negotiations-capacity-building/climate-negotiations-q-a<br> | ||
6. <br> | 6. http://www.teriin.org/events/CoP15/CC_Migration.pdf<br> | ||
7. <br> | 7. http://securityandclimate.cna.org/report/National%20Security%20and%20the%20Threat%20of%20Climate%20Change.pdf<br> | ||
8. <br> | 8. http://www.google.com/publicdata/explore?ds=d5bncppjof8f9_&ctype=l&strail=false&nselm=h&met_y=en_atm_co2e_pc&scale_y=lin&ind_y=false&rdim=country&idim=country:BEL:IND:USA:ARE:GBR:BRA:CAN:CHN:FRA:DEU:IRN:CRI:NLD:RUS:ZAF:SAU&tdim=true&tstart=-315619200000&tunit=Y&tlen=46&hl=en&dl=en&iconSize=0.5&uniSize=0.03499999999999999<br> | ||
9. <br> | 9. http://mdgs.un.org/unsd/mdg/SeriesDetail.aspx?srid=749&crid=<br> | ||
10. <br> | 10. http://www.dni.gov/nic/special_climate2030.html<br> | ||
11. http://centad.org/events_57.asp<br> | |||
12. http://climatechangepriorities.blogspot.com/<br> | |||
13. http://www.worldenergyoutlook.org/docs/weo2009/climate_change_excerpt.pdf<br> | |||
14. http://www.bp.com/liveassets/bp_internet/globalbp/globalbp_uk_english/reports_and_publications/statistical_energy_review_2008/STAGING/local_assets/2010_downloads/statistical_review_of_world_energy_full_report_2010.pdf<br> | |||
15. http://www.eia.doe.gov/cabs/India/Full.html<br> | |||
16. http://www.earthtrendsdelivered.org/energy_consumption_by_sector_in_2007_china_usa_india_japan_russia_eu-27<br> | |||
17. http://www.indianchild.com/india_environmental_overview.htm<br> | |||
18. http://www.world-nuclear.org/info/inf23.html<br> | |||
19. http://economictimes.indiatimes.com/news/economy/indicators/India-to-become-worlds-fastest-growing-economy-by-2013-15-Morgan-Stanley/articleshow/6322333.cms<br> | |||
= Last Updated By = | |||
- Rachit Tayal | |||