Increase of international conflicts against muslims
Description:
International conflict behaviour is caused by: opposing interests and capabilities (or specific sociocultural differences and similarities between parties), contact and salience (awareness), significant change in the balance of powers, individual perceptions and expectations, a disrupted structure of expectations and a will to conflict (www.hawaii.du/pwerkills). Recent international conflicts between Western and Muslim societies clearly result from a combination of these factors (reasons most often mentioned in this context are opposing oil-interests and/or potential significant change in the balance of powers owing to the threat of WMD) Going forward, these drivers appear to remain largely intact which could thus result in a continuation in international conflicts of Western countries against muslim nations. Furthermore, nations like Iran and potentially Pakistan also appear vulnerable for international conflicts when looking at these causes. A continuation or even an increase in international conflicts against muslim countries will be likely.
Enablers:
- cognitive imbalance
- status difference
- coercive state pwer
- sociocultural differences
Inhibitors:
- sociocultural similarity
- decentralized or weak, coercive state power
Paradigms:
The main awareness should be that a continuation of international conflicts against muslim countries will further fuel muslim fundamentalism and terrorism since veteran fighters, highly skilled in guerilla wars and organizing attacks, will return towards Western countries while the general feeling of hate towards Western coutnreies ´waging ware against Muslims´ will increase.
Experts:
see sources
Timing:
not avaialable for this force
Web Resources:
www.hawaii.edu/powerkills/wpp.chap16.htm
www.aivd.nl