Green Shoots

The Myth

Well management of oil revenue and leverage on other infrastructure and political system reforms leads Russia to the new hope.

Timeline

Period of 2009 - 2015

2009

Last December, It was said that Russia was prepared to cut an additional exports, if prices failed to rise. In October 2009, Russia has overtaken Saudi Arabic as the world’s biggest oil exporter. Although The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) tries to control production to keep prices high, while Russia is staying on track with increasing its production, Russia’s economy shrinks due to the impact of lower oil price. on 2 December, Russia attends the OPEC meeting, as the representative of non-OPEC oil-producing countries. In the meeting, the OPEC members approve to further cuts their official quota for oil production. On the other hand, Russia is still the biggest oil producer and non-OPEC member, the price between $68-$ 75 per barrel.

2010

Russia government seeks for financial stability and attracts more direct foreign investment (DFI) to recover the financial crisis in 2008. After more than 15 years, Russia joins World Trade Organization (WTO) in 2010 through the supports from United States and European Union (E.U.). It leads Russia’s needs for market-friendly reforms. However, recession and crisis drags on Russia’s economy into 2011. No strong recovery and economy of Russia like that of much of the rest of the world is in the doldrums. Russian economy lags the other BRICs( Brazil, India, China) due to the poor productivity and oil price remains volatile between $50-$100, which makes the road to recovery get tough.

2012

In February 2012, one month before the election, power shortages and heating shortages have been chronic problems in Russia for years, especially in the winter. Due to crumbling infrastructure and chronic underinvestment in infrastructure/diversion of resources by corruption heat/electricity shortages affect a number of apartment blocks in which many pensioners live. It also affects some schools and one hospital. A number of pensioners and several children die of hypothermia. Several deaths occur in the hospital as well, which is overcrowded at the time due to inadequate healthcare resources and the flu season. Despite dramatic efforts to address the situation and characteristic on-site appearances of Putin on TV, "dealing with the situation", the scandal tarnishes Putin and Medvedev in the middle of the election campaign
In March 2012, Medvedev loses the election to a liberal reform candidate who successfully placed the blame for the scandal on the shoulder of Putin and Medvedev for failing to address the needs of the Russian people and instead lining their pockets and those of their oligarch buddies. Putin is still PM However after a few politically dramatic months the Duma approves of the reformer's nominee for PM, replacing Putin As the legitimate winners of the election, the reformers have the support of the Russian armed forces and use this as a hedge against the entrenched influence of the FSB. The reformer and his PM, with the help of the military, send Putin and Medvedev to prison in Siberia due to corruption. They are able to leverage the media to expose wrongdoing of key members of the Putin/Medvedev regime; however, they do not embark on a Russia-wide witch-hunt, which they wisely foresee as destabilizing the government.