Green Shoots

The Scenario

Green Shoots

The Myth

Well management of oil revenue and leverage on other infrastructure and political system reforms leads Russia to the new hope.

Timeline

Period of 2009 - 2015

2009

Last December, It was said that Russia was prepared to cut an additional exports, if prices failed to rise. In October 2009, Russia has overtaken Saudi Arabic as the world’s biggest oil exporter. Although The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) tries to control production to keep prices high, while Russia is staying on track with increasing its production, Russia’s economy shrinks due to the impact of lower oil price. on 2 December, Russia attends the OPEC meeting, as the representative of non-OPEC oil-producing countries. In the meeting, the OPEC members approve to further cuts their official quota for oil production. On the other hand, Russia is still the biggest oil producer and non-OPEC member, the price between $68-$ 75 per barrel.

2010

Russia government seeks for financial stability and attracts more direct foreign investment (DFI) to recover the financial crisis in 2008. After more than 15 years, Russia joins World Trade Organization (WTO) in 2010 through the supports from United States and European Union (E.U.). It leads Russia’s needs for market-friendly reforms. However, recession and crisis drags on Russia’s economy into 2011. No strong recovery and economy of Russia like that of much of the rest of the world is in the doldrums. Russian economy lags the other BRICs( Brazil, India, China) due to the poor productivity and oil price remains volatile between $50-$100, which makes the road to recovery get tough.

2012

In February 2012, one month before the election, power shortages and heating shortages have been chronic problems in Russia for years, especially in the winter. Due to crumbling infrastructure and chronic underinvestment in infrastructure/diversion of resources by corruption heat/electricity shortages affect a number of apartment blocks in which many pensioners live. It also affects some schools and one hospital. A number of pensioners and several children die of hypothermia. Several deaths occur in the hospital as well, which is overcrowded at the time due to inadequate healthcare resources and the flu season. Despite dramatic efforts to address the situation and characteristic on-site appearances of Putin on TV, "dealing with the situation", the scandal tarnishes Putin and Medvedev in the middle of the election campaign
In March 2012, Medvedev loses the election to a liberal reform candidate who successfully placed the blame for the scandal on the shoulder of Putin and Medvedev for failing to address the needs of the Russian people and instead lining their pockets and those of their oligarch buddies. Putin is still PM However after a few politically dramatic months the Duma approves of the reformer's nominee for PM, replacing Putin As the legitimate winners of the election, the reformers have the support of the Russian armed forces and use this as a hedge against the entrenched influence of the FSB. The reformer and his PM, with the help of the military, send Putin and Medvedev to prison in Siberia due to corruption. They are able to leverage the media to expose wrongdoing of key members of the Putin/Medvedev regime; however, they do not embark on a Russia-wide witch-hunt, which they wisely foresee as destabilizing the government.

2014

It is a brand-new Russia. The new reformers deploy funds from federal stabilization fund to increase investment in infrastructure, education, technology, and healthcare. These infrastructures boost refining and smelting capacity and technology but the result and the effects of these investments won't be felt for decades. They also increase dialogue and cooperation with NATO and China. However policy is still very assertive in the arctic and the Caucasus The first-two-year is the honeymoon period for new reformers.
As a member of Kyoto Protocol, the new government joins the meeting in 2013 to negotiate and ratifies a new international framework that can deliver the stringent emission reductions. Because meets its commitments under Kyoto Protocol, Russia asks more green technology infrastructures for developed countries which increases its productivity.

Period of 2015 - 2020

2016

n 2016, though oil prices drop to $80 due to global recession, Russia manages the recession fairly well due to sensible policies and deployment of foreign reserves and stabilization fund. The new government starts a process of economic liberalization. Though it still maintains limits on foreign ownership of Russian companies in energy, mining and telecom and medical sectors those are key source to drive Russia economy, it limits on foreign ownership in other sectors and reduce level of state ownership through sale of government stakes. Moreover, it implements policies directed at attracting foreign technologies to Russia. A number of scandals come to light in 2017 regarding the use of the proceeds and the prices set for the sales, but the private initiative becomes the main force behind Russia’s economic recovery after the following decades.
On the other hand, Russia’s demographic problem is getting worse and life expectancy is decreasing. The new born rate does not change even the government gives initiative and subsidy to encourage. The death rate roses and are directly and indirectly caused by excess alcohol consumption, ranging from heart disease to accidents, suicides and murders. Unlike drinking, AIDS is a relatively new problem for Russia. The figure is over half million of population because of poor prevention measures.

2018

In 2018, the new presidential election comes into focus globally. Despite attacks from voters and political opponents, saying that the low wages and high inequities in Russian society show that the reformers are elitists who are too close to foreign business and out of touch with ordinary Russians, the reformers win a second term on the strength of sensible economic policies. In 2019, Moscow wins Olympic Game for 2024. The summer Olympic will be held in Russia for the second time since 1980. This victory is a crowning glory for the leader.

2020

The international politics to bilateral trade between Russia and China is getting closer. China commits to major pipeline project in the east from Siberia because Asia market relies on Russia’s energy production heavy than ever. Both have pledged to work together on space exploration and nuclear energy development. At the same time, the government has reduced headcounts of the armed forces and cut military spending. Update military technology and hardware, especially navy and air force, to patrol arctic territories. The West’s relations with Russia have been tension and increased the scope of completion in the region due to the nature resource and the Northwest Passage.
After years of record breaking floods and droughts, and rising disease throughout Asia, (causing millions of deaths) Russia reluctantly accepts 3 million refugees (this is the official number, it is estimated that an additional 2 million refugees are undocumented and have entered Russia illegally). Most refugees are from Bangladesh, Pakistan, and Afghanistan. There are many more refugees as gone to EU, US, Canada, and Australia as well. The refugees are a significant burden on the system. The burden is also felt by some regions more heavily than others. Together with chronic unequal wealth distribution, the situation leaves many regions of Russia dramatically poorer than Moscow and St. Petersburg. This leads to unrest in several remote regions, forcing Moscow to increase military presence in affected regions.

Period of 2021 - 2025

2022

In 2020, the privation enlarges the inequality. Major unions organize strikes for minimum wage in the lead up to the elections in 2024. The oil price hits to $ 100 per barrel.

2024

There is a resurgence of conservatives, some with links to the old regime; however it is not strong enough to keep the reformer from winning a following term. The socialist party capitalizes on social inequities to and low standard of living to win the election, over the incumbent. The reformers raise corporate taxes rather than funds from federal stabilization fund to contribution the infrastructure and solve refugees’ problems.
On social infrastructure perspective, the new government also raised dramatically taxes on alcohol and tobacco to reduce the death rate and extend the expectancy rate. The minimum wage and taxing the rich rise as well. The labor encourages unionization to protect employees. Implementation of tax breaks for families, improved prenatal care and maternal leave policies to stop population declines. Meanwhile governments are asking companies (both domestic and foreign) to co-invest in education and training. As a result, teachers and professors are being offered increasing salaries. They also now face competition from their peers—which can only be good for the quality of teaching.
Thanks for previous government; Russia has slowly moved towards a diversified market economy. In 2024, Russia hosts Olympic Game and attracts the record high tourists. It boots Russia’s economy development, especially tourism industry.

Period of 2025 - 2030

The Northwest Passage, linking the Atlantic and Pacific oceans, becomes a regular shipping lane. Russia invests the Ports, a holding company owned by the government of Russia. It becomes the second largest port operator in the world. The terminals are the world’s largest container transshipment hub, replacing PSA Singapore Terminals. The state-owned company gets the fully support from the government including the technology. It develops the in-house systems to maximum its container throughput.
Although the government still controls the key sectors such as energy and transportation, unlike the western, Russia has its own democracy than ever. The demography improve and the economy profiles diversify which leads the birth of Middle class in Russia.