Future of the Korean Peninsula in 2015

From ScenarioThinking
Jump to navigation Jump to search

To start our scenario process we shall look at the scope of the uncertainties, define our research questions and answer them for our next class on 26 May.

Note: A good source is also the CIA's conference on the future of North Korea done in 2001. the report is visible here

Driving Forces

Here we will list Driving Forces that are specific to the process to understand the future of the Korean peninsula in 2015+

Please remember to be specific and indicate movement (whether it is growing or declining). For Example:

 BAD - Anti-Americanism
 BETTER - Anti-Americanism in Korea
 BEST - Increase of Anti-Americanism in Korea


  • The Sino-U.S. rivalry
  • Pax Americana <---please read the instructions above!
  • Nationalism
  • Incresing influence of US polices on South Korea polices - Group 4
  • Incresing importance of North Korea situation to South Korea - Group 4
  • continuation of Kim Jung Il's attempt to sustain his regime - Group 1
  • the nature of divided penninsula between DPRK and ROK - Group 1
  • historical experience of Japan's colonization and ambition - Group 1
  • creation of Korea-US tight relationship since Korean war - Group 1
  • increase in notion of pax-americana - america's sole pre-eminence - Group 1


  • Globalization
  • Increasing dependency of S.K economy on exporting - Group 4
  • More opening of S.K economy to the world - Group 4
  • Europe and Japan began to compete effectively with the U.S - Group 2
  • As North Korea meets the limits of economice development they try to accept inter-korean Economic Cooperation - Group 2
  • The prolonged economic slump has discouraged people from moving to other residential areas - Group 2

  • 2008 Beijing Olympics in China - Group 3
  • FTA - Group 3
  • Bipolarity in wealth - Group 3
  • Economic Alignment with North Korea - Group 3


  • Increasing Women's right in South Korea - Group 4
  • South Korea society is going to western style demographic population - Group 4
  • decrease in confucius value in ROK - Group 1


  • South Korea's tech competence is on the high skilled HR and high applied science - Group 4
  • South Korea's tech competence is on the IT & digital industry - Group 4
  • increase in availability of cheap broadband internet in ROK - Group 1
  • Stem cell technology - Group 3


  • Materialism
  • Increasing relation between S.K economey and environmental issue - Group 4
  • Water Shortage - Group 3
  • Energy Crisis - Group 3

As a reference you can look at example uncertainties,research questions, driving forces and scenarios developed on a WIKI:

LIACS Scenarios 2005

Leiden University ICT in Business Post Graduate course scenarios.

The Future of WiFi
WiFi is the name coined for a networking standard using the IEEE 802.11 protocol to transmit data wirelessly using an unlicenced, and therefore free, frequency range. Wireless working has become an ideal picture of the digital world of tomorrow. But what will be the influence on industries and governments? How will Society and its perception of technology change? And, finally, what will be happen in the next five years in the area of WiFi?

The Future of GRID computing
Group: grid computing is a form of networking that harnesses unused processing cycles of all computers in a network for solving problems too intensive for any stand-alone machine. What will be driving force for its future development? How would this future perspective influence both commercial & industrial market in the next 10 years?

The Future of the Global Village in 2020
Group: The concept of "Global Village" has been brought forward since 1962. More than 30 years have passed. Will this idea come true in the future 15 years? Could the large amount of changes that recently happened facilitate the steps of the consolidation?

The Future of Software Development
Anyone will agree that software development in general is going to change.
But how? And what will be the consequences?

The Future of the Internet in China
With the quick technology development and the joining to the WTO, China faces both an opportunity and a challenge in the Internet industry. So what will the development of internet in China be in the coming 10 years?

The Future of Console Based Games
The gaming industry is changing. A heavy war is going on between the big players to become the market leader. This influences the future of the console based games. This heavy competition speed up changes. But how will this end? Will the concept of console based games remain the same or will this competition bring other alternitives which give the concept of console game another meaning?