Difference between revisions of "Future of Consulting 2020"

From ScenarioThinking
Jump to navigation Jump to search
 
(150 intermediate revisions by 12 users not shown)
Line 5: Line 5:
Kiho Lee <br>  
Kiho Lee <br>  
Conor Ruff <br>  
Conor Ruff <br>  
Lidia Sholkova  
Lidia Sholkova <br>
= Background =


== Background ==
Problem owner: Joost Preyde (IT):<br>
 
Quote: "All progress depends on the unreasonable man. <br>


Joost Preyde (IT):<br>
quote: "All progress depends on the unreasonable man. <br>
Education:<br>
Education:<br>
1981-1985 Flight Engineering; 1985-1987 MBA<br>
1981-1985 Flight Engineering <br>
 
1985-1987 MBA <br>
; ;
 
Reading book now: Mojo: How to Get It, How to Keep It, How to Get It Back if You Lose It (so we can talk/ask him the most strange questions)
Work:<br>
 
<br>
<br>
<br>
Reading book now: Mojo: How to Get It, How to Keep It, How to Get It Back if You Lose It
==Focal Issue==
How will Consulting industry evolve in next 10 years?
 
= Interview Questions =
 
[[Future of Consulting 2020 - Interview Questions & Answers]]
 
= Driving Forces =
 
==Economic Driving Forces==
*[[Global Economic Growth]]  (IT) <br>
*[[Complex Business Environment]] (PD)  <br>
*[[The Role of the Internal Consultant]] (CR) <br>
 
==Societal Driving Forces==
*[[Innovation]] (KL) <br>
*[[Rising need to co-create]] (PD) <br>
*[[Rising Intellectual Power of Emerging Markets]] (LS) <br>
 
==Technological Driving Forces==
*[[Development of ICT, web 2.0]] (IT) <br>
*[[Globalization of companies]] (KL) <br>
*[[Openness of Information]] (CR) <br>
*[[Automation of processes]] (LS) <br>
 
= Research Questions =
 
[[Future of Consulting 2020 - Research Questions]]
 
=Scenarios=
 
==Systems Diagram==


[[Future of Consulting 2020 First Draft]]


[[Future of consulting 2020 - Final Diagram]]


Also: check out David Maister: http://davidmaister.com/articles/24/ for deep perspective on the consulting world.
== Short Scenarios Description ==


history of consulting: http://www.careers-in-business.com/consulting/hist.htm
'''Tradition Remains'''<br>
''Current consulting model remains the same''<br>


== Interview Questions ==
-Fear and validation remain an underlying motivation for hiring consultants<br>
-Relationships and trust continue to drive the consultancy model<br>
-Consultant-client relationship shifts to co-creation for innovation<br>


'''Starting Questions''' <br>
'''Inside Out Innovation'''<br>
''Innovation from within organizations''<br>


1) What keeps you awake at night? <br>
- Creation of center of excellence + innovation center <br>
2) What do you think are the key uncertainities? <br>
- Growing cycle dimishes external consulting <br>
3) What is your dream? <br>
- Attracting top talent to the organizations <br>
4) What do you think drives the changes in consulting companies today? <br>


'''House of Performance related questions''' <br>
'''Collective Good Consulting'''<br>
''Open source & free consulting'' <br>


1) How do you differentiate your firm from other consulting firms and clients? <br>
- All information in public domain <br>
2) What is the recent successful project and failure? What caused the differences? <br>
- On-line collaboration based on non-fee <br>
3) How do you maintain delivery quality? <br>
- Reward through "virtual currency" - promotes free knowledge base <br>


'''Changes within Consulting Industry''' <br>
'''A Leap Ahead'''<br>
''Move towards e-consulting & automation'' <br>


1) Do you foresee any change in traditional organization structure of consulting firms? (Hierarchical/Flat/Hexagonal) <br>
- Commoditization of specific consulting services <br>
2) Do you foresee any change in pricing model? (Value based pricing as against hour based pricing) <br>
- Advancement of ICT and growth of emerging markets <br>
3) Do you foresee an emergence of Credit rating agency for consulting firms? (Similar to what we have for banking industry Moody's) <br>
- Replacement of consulting services by machines <br>
4) Any change in the business model with more young population? <br>
5) Do you foresee a consolidation trend in consulting industry? <br>
6) What is the future of consulting? What areas? (More specifically, where do you see consulting by 2020 and what trends? In which industry do you see the most growth potential by 2020? Why? <br>
7)Can it be like construction industry? One main big one stop shop developer get order and maintain all relationships with the client and outsorce specialized areas for small consulting companies who are experts in specific areas. <br>
8) What is the future of outsourcing for consulting companies, if any? <br>


'''ICT in consulting''' <br>
==  Future of Consulting Scenario Tree ==
[[Future of Consulting Scenario Tree]]


1) What is the role of ICT in the future of consulting? <br>
== Timelines ==
2) Based on ICT changes, do you foresee any standardization happening in consulting industry? <br>


'''Emerging markets''' <br>
[[Tradition Remains Timeline]] <br>


1) Development of different markets for consultancy? <br>
[[Inside out Innovation Timeline]]<br>
2) Development of big consulting companies which are non-US and non-European?


== Driving Forces ==
[[Collective Good Consulting Timeline]] <br>


driving forces
[[A Leap Forward Timeline]] <br>


1. Global Economic Growth (IT)  <br>
== Scenario Stories ==
    consulting is usually additional service for companies. During times of financial crisis companies trying to find money for salaries and operations, so consulting is postponed or even rejected by many companies. However, during the economic growth, companies have money which they can spend to consulting. Paradox, but it is what it is. <br>


2. Development of ICT, web 2.0 (IT) <br>
[[Traditions Remains]]<br>
    more and more companies and people integrate, live in web and use ICT. Future development of ICT will have tremendous influence onto reality and world perception.


3. Demographics (LS)
[[Inside Out Innovation]] <br>
implication of new younger generation with different needs, older retiring partners, changing demographics globally


4. Globalization (KL)  <br>
[[Collective Good Consulting]]<br>
    As more companies expand globally their consulting partners also expland their territories. <br>


5. Environment (KL)  <br>
[[A Leap Ahead]]<br>
    Corporate Social Responsibilities become more and more important. This will be one of big new service offerings of consuting industries <br>


== Numbers that matter ==
= Presentation feedback =


Numbers that matter in Consulting - global statistics for consulting industry:
Like that you ask the audience questions <br>
Like the small vignettes that you used to demonstrate the scenarios ( not sure I know the scenarios) <br>
Like the causal diagram to explain what you were doing <br>
(see how a scenario works, in terms of showing a new world- when Joost said "O my God") <br>
Like the CFO/CEO discussion nice shift <br>
Good to conclude with outline <br>
Perhaps there is another standard scenario in the "normal" consulting space <br>
2nd scenario question should be framed also in terms of the technical challenges to realize this system <br>
Joost was discussing some interesting strategic responses to the challenges that the scenarios raise <br>


http://www.plunkettresearch.com/Industries/Consulting/ConsultingStatistics/tabid/177/Default.aspx  (LS)
= Main Learning Points =
- Investigating Fundamental Business Model of Consulting <br>
- General Trends of No Value, i.e. tracing the root of the symptom <br>
- Move away from obvious Assumptions <br>


Global Consulting Industry Revenue (including HR, IT, strategy, operations management & business advisory services) equals 345 Billion US Dollars. (LS)<br>
= Useful Resources =
Management Consulting is by far the largest segment with $142.7B in 2008 (CR)<br>


-What is the fastest growing segment of consulting? IT? We should be able to find this out with numbers (CR)<br>
Fiona Czerniawska and others on future of consulting:


http://davidmaister.com/articles/24/ - David Maister - a deep perspective on the consulting world<br>
http://www.careers-in-business.com/consulting/hist.htm - History of consulting <br>
http://www.managementconsultingnews.com/- Features ideas and tools from leading thinkers, consultants, writers, and marketers<br>
http://www.scottberkun.com/blog/2008/thoughts-on-googles-20-time/ - A look at internal innovation programmes <br>
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=soYKFWqVVzg - Interesting speech by Marissa Mayer about Google's innovation<br>
http://enrd.ec.europa.eu/app_templates/filedownload.cfm?id=B7288CC2-AAAF-2E2A-742A-040F3A77A56B Pros and cons of internal and external consultants<br>
http://www.time.com/time/business/article/0,8599,1917002,00.html Time article about the history of wikipedia<br>
http://www.zdnet.com/news/open-source-ibms-deadly-weapon/296366 Open source: IBM's deadly weapon<br>
http://www.internetnews.com/dev-news/article.php/3499276 IBM: Open Source is More Than Just Linux<br>
http://www.javaworld.com/community/node/3104 interesting article about starting a business with open source <br>


Conor has idea on decreasing of US defense expense and put this money to feed the whole planet (IT)<br>
= Numbers that Matter Presentation =
[[Deforestation vs adult&drug tax]]

Latest revision as of 09:42, 9 September 2010

Retrieved from "https://www.scenariothinking.org/index.php?title=Future_of_Consulting_2020&oldid=187546"