Difference between revisions of "Future of China in 2030"

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=Group Members=
==Group Members==
The content of this page has been prepared between September and October 2009 by:<br>
[[User:Guy kedar|Guy Kedar]]<br>
[[User:Guy kedar|Guy Kedar]]<br>
[[User:Gerrit ledderhof|Gerrit Ledderhof]]<br>
[[User:Gerrit ledderhof|Gerrit Ledderhof]]<br>
[[User:clee|Chia Wei Lee]]<br>
[[User:clee|Chia-Wei Lee]]<br>
[[User:jlittle|Johanna Little]]<br>
[[User:jlittle|Johanna Little]]<br>
[[User:Geoff.spielman|Geoff Spielman]]<br>
[[User:Geoff.spielman|Geoff Spielman]]<br>


=Introduction=
=Introduction=
This page is the main source for the scenario set Future of China in 2030.<br>
[[Image:flag1.gif|thumb|Chinese Flag|300px]]
[[Image:Map_of_china.jpg|thumb|Map of China|300px]]
China is more than just the world's most populous country.  It is a vast land with a rich history and strong cultural identity.  China's strong economic growth in recent years has put it in a unique position on the world stage, and the future of China, while uncertain, will have major consequences not just for itself but for the rest of world.  Although much has been said over the last few years about this region, there are still many interesting and important aspects uncovered and unexplored.
<br>
<br>
For page editing help, the help page at [http://www.mediawiki.org/wiki/Help:Formatting MediaWiki] is a good start.<br>
<br>
<br>
If you have any comments for us, please put them here so we can read them. We welcome any input!<br>
This page is devoted to exploring potential futures for China in 2030.
<br>
<br>
*You guys might want to look at articles published by Bobo Lo, he writes on Russia but also Russo-Chinese relations. Andrei.
<br>
 
=Scenarios=
==Scenario Stories==
The following are the four scenario stories detailing different futures for China in 2030:<br>
*;[[Future_of_China_in_2030:_An_Inconvenient_Truth|An Inconvenient Truth]]
:''Environmental disaster''
*;[[Future_of_China_in_2030:_Panda_Power|Panda Power]]
:''Birth of a superpower''
*;[[Future_of_China_in_2030:_Land_of_a_Hundred_Kingdoms|Land of a Hundred Kingdoms]]
:''Dissolving of an empire''
*;[[Future_of_China_in_2030:_Ciao_Mao|Ciao Mao]]
:''A foray into democracy''
 
==Scenario Tree==
<gallery>
Image:Future_of_china_2030_scenario_tree.jpg|''Final tree''
Image:China 2030 scenario tree draft1.jpg|''1st draft''
</gallery>
 
==Systems Diagram==
<gallery>
Image:China 2030 systems diagram1.jpg|''Systems diagram picture 1''
Image:China 2030 systems diagram2.jpg|''Systems diagram picture 2''
</gallery>
==Timelines==
<gallery>
Image:Inconvenient_truth.jpg|''Timeline for Inconvenient Truth Scenario''
Image:Panda_Power.jpg|''Timeline for Panda Power Scenario''
Image:LandOfKings.jpg|''Timeline for Land of a Hundred Kings Scenario''
Image:Ciao_Mao.jpg|''Timeline for Ciao Mao Scenario''
</gallery>
 
 
=Driving Forces=
==New Forces==
The following forces were determined to be of interest based on our research:
 
====Political Driving Forces====
*[[Decreasing acceptance of central government in China]]
*[[Increased private sector in China]]
 
====Environmental Driving Forces====
*[[Increase in the number of households in China]]
*[[Increasing water scarcity in China]]
*[[Desertification of China]]
 
====Societal Driving Forces====
*[[Increase in travel infrastructure in China]]
*[[Strict internet censorship in China]]
 
====Economic Driving Forces====
*[[Rising costs of labour in China]]
*After effect of the 2008 economic crisis
 
====Technological Driving Forces====
*[[Increase of information sharing through Web 2.0]]
*[[The "flattening" of the world]]
 
==Existing Forces==
The following forces are already existing on the wiki and are explicitly related to China.
====Political Driving Forces====
*[[An Open China]]
*[[Easing restrictions in China]]
*[[Economic Growth in China]]
*[[Strike in China]]
*[[Host to the 2008 Olympic Games Beijing,china]]
 
====Economic Driving Forces====
*[[Chinese Families' economic condition]]
*[[Economic Growth in China]]
*[[Huge difference between the western and the eastern part of China]]
*[[Energy crisis in Asia]]
*[[The Rise of BRIC Economies]]
*[[China's economic productivity growth]]
*[[China's accumulated capital as the driving force of the economic growth]]
*[[China becoming the largest economy]]
*[[Increasing income disparity in China]]
 
====Societal Driving Forces====
*[[Chinese people's increasing leisure time]]
*[[Population of China]]
 
====Environmental Driving Forces====
*[[Increased environmental degradation in China]]


=Research Questions=
=Research Questions=
Line 19: Line 105:
*[[China by the Numbers]]
*[[China by the Numbers]]
*[[media:Numbers_that_matter_china_2030.ppt|Numbers that Matter Presentation]]
*[[media:Numbers_that_matter_china_2030.ppt|Numbers that Matter Presentation]]
 
<br>
To begin our research, we generated a list of specific questions we were interested in answering on our quest to learn more about China.  The questions were loosely grouped into four areas: government & politics, economics, society & culture, and environment.  Follow the links to learn the answers.
<br>
==Government and Politics==
==Government and Politics==


Line 63: Line 151:
==Environment==
==Environment==


Below links are the short answers for each question.  For more information on these answers please select the following link:  [[Environmental Research Questions - China in 2030]]
The below links are the short answers for each question.  For more information, please select the following link:  [[Environmental Research Questions - China in 2030]]


*[[What are the key drivers behind China's current environmental state?]]
*[[What are the key drivers behind China's current environmental state?]]
Line 71: Line 159:
*[[How will the state of China's environment affect the country's future (and the world's future)?]]
*[[How will the state of China's environment affect the country's future (and the world's future)?]]
*[[What will China's environmental policy be going forward?]]
*[[What will China's environmental policy be going forward?]]
=Driving Forces=
==New Forces==
The following forces were determined by our group:
====Political Driving Forces====
*[[Decreasing acceptance of central government in China]]
====Environmental Driving Forces====
*[[Increase in the number of households in China]]
*[[Increasing water scarcity in China]]
*[[Desertification of China]]
*[[Increased private sector in China]]
====Societal Driving Forces====
*[[Increase in travel infrastructure in China]]
*[[Strict internet censorship in China]]
====Economic Driving Forces====
*[[Rising costs of labour in China]]
After effect of the 2008 economic crisis
====Technological Driving Forces====
*[[Increase of information sharing through Web 2.0]]
*[[The "flattening" of the world]]
==Existing Forces==
The following forces are already existing on the wiki that are explicitly related to China.
====Political Driving Forces====
*[[An Open China]]
*[[Easing restrictions in China]]
*[[Economic Growth in China]]
*[[Strike in China]]
*[[Host to the 2008 Olympic Games Beijing,china]]
====Economic Driving Forces====
*[[Chinese Families' economic condition]]
*[[Economic Growth in China]]
*[[Huge difference between the western and the eastern part of China]]
*[[Energy crisis in Asia]]
*[[The Rise of BRIC Economies]]
*[[China's economic productivity growth]]
*[[China's accumulated capital as the driving force of the economic growth]]
*[[China becoming the largest economy]]
*[[Increasing income disparity in China]]
====Societal Driving Forces====
*[[Chinese people's increasing leisure time]]
*[[Population of China]]
====Environmental Driving Forces====
*[[Increased environmental degradation in China]]
=Scenarios=
==Systems Diagram==
<gallery>
Image:China 2030 systems diagram1.jpg|''Systems diagram picture 1''
Image:China 2030 systems diagram2.jpg|''Systems diagram picture 2''
</gallery>
==Scenario Tree==
<gallery>
Image:China 2030 scenario tree draft1.jpg|''Scenarios - 1st draft''
</gallery>
==Timelines==
<gallery>
Image:Inconvenient_truth.jpg|''Timeline for Inconvenient Truth Scenario''
Image:Panda_Power.jpg|''Timeline for Panda Power Scenario''
Image:LandOfKings.jpg|''Timeline for Land of a Hundred Kings Scenario''
</gallery>


=References=
=References=
Line 168: Line 185:


=Recommended Reading=
=Recommended Reading=
Can't get enough of China?  Here is a list of interested things to read, watch, or see.  Be careful, you might learn something.<br>
#Shen, Sandy. (2008). Innovation Is Reshaping China's Economy. Gartner. G00157000.
#Shen, Sandy. (2008). Innovation Is Reshaping China's Economy. Gartner. G00157000.
#[http://www.fool.com/investing/international/2008/09/22/will-china-starve-the-world.aspx Motley Fool. 2008. Will China Starve the World?]
#[http://www.fool.com/investing/international/2008/09/22/will-china-starve-the-world.aspx Motley Fool. 2008. Will China Starve the World?]
Line 189: Line 207:
#Orr, Gordon R. 2004. The aging of China. The McKinsey Quarterly 2004 special edition: China today.
#Orr, Gordon R. 2004. The aging of China. The McKinsey Quarterly 2004 special edition: China today.
#[http://www.commondreams.org/headlines06/0310-05.htm Clifford Coonan.10 Mar.2006. "China’s Boom is Killing Sea That Gives It Life, Warn Scientists." Independent News and Media Limited.]
#[http://www.commondreams.org/headlines06/0310-05.htm Clifford Coonan.10 Mar.2006. "China’s Boom is Killing Sea That Gives It Life, Warn Scientists." Independent News and Media Limited.]
#[http://www.wsichina.org/cs7_2.pdf Wenping, He. 2007. The Balancing Act of China's Africa Policy.]

Latest revision as of 15:36, 29 October 2009

Group Members

The content of this page has been prepared between September and October 2009 by:
Guy Kedar
Gerrit Ledderhof
Chia-Wei Lee
Johanna Little
Geoff Spielman

Introduction

Chinese Flag
Map of China

China is more than just the world's most populous country. It is a vast land with a rich history and strong cultural identity. China's strong economic growth in recent years has put it in a unique position on the world stage, and the future of China, while uncertain, will have major consequences not just for itself but for the rest of world. Although much has been said over the last few years about this region, there are still many interesting and important aspects uncovered and unexplored.

This page is devoted to exploring potential futures for China in 2030.

Scenarios

Scenario Stories

The following are the four scenario stories detailing different futures for China in 2030:

Environmental disaster
Birth of a superpower
Dissolving of an empire
A foray into democracy

Scenario Tree

Systems Diagram

Timelines


Driving Forces

New Forces

The following forces were determined to be of interest based on our research:

Political Driving Forces

Environmental Driving Forces

Societal Driving Forces

Economic Driving Forces

Technological Driving Forces

Existing Forces

The following forces are already existing on the wiki and are explicitly related to China.

Political Driving Forces

Economic Driving Forces

Societal Driving Forces

Environmental Driving Forces

Research Questions


To begin our research, we generated a list of specific questions we were interested in answering on our quest to learn more about China. The questions were loosely grouped into four areas: government & politics, economics, society & culture, and environment. Follow the links to learn the answers.

Government and Politics

Economics

Society and Culture

Environment

The below links are the short answers for each question. For more information, please select the following link: Environmental Research Questions - China in 2030

References

Websites

  1. Political History: http://acc6.its.brooklyn.cuny.edu/~phalsall/texts/chinhist.html
  2. General History: http://www-chaos.umd.edu/history/toc.html

Videos

  1. Frontline. 2006. Young and Restless in China.
  2. Washington Post. 2006. Redefining China's Family.
  3. Financial Times. 2009. NATHAN ANDERSON, UBS, on the future of China economic policy Video.

News and Journal Articles

  1. Jun, Ma. (2007). How participation can help China's ailing environment. Available: http://www.chinadialogue.net/article/show/single/en/733-How-participation-can-help-China-s-ailing-environment
  2. PBS. (2006). China's Environmental Future. Available: http://www.pbs.org/kqed/chinainside/nature/environment.html.
  3. Liu, J. & Diamond, J.. (2005). China's Place in the World: Environmental Impact of a Giant. Available: http://www.csis.msu.edu/Publication%20files/China_Environment_Globalization.pdf
  4. People's Daily Online. 11 September 2009. Will China's economic growth change the world economic pattern? Available: http://english.people.com.cn/90001/90780/91344/6755577.html
  5. Hilton Yip, The China Post. 26 September 2009. A whole new world ahead. Available: http://www.chinapost.com.tw/art/books/2009/09/26/226517/A-whole.htm

Previous Scenarios

  1. Future of China in 2020
  2. The Future of the Internet in China 2015
  3. http://www.weforum.org/pdf/scenarios/China_report.pdf
  4. http://money.cnn.com/magazines/business2/business2_archive/2006/08/01/8382233/index.htm
  5. http://www3.brookings.edu/views/articles/li200707.pdf

Recommended Reading

Can't get enough of China? Here is a list of interested things to read, watch, or see. Be careful, you might learn something.

  1. Shen, Sandy. (2008). Innovation Is Reshaping China's Economy. Gartner. G00157000.
  2. Motley Fool. 2008. Will China Starve the World?
  3. The New York Times. 2008. Missile-ready China warns U.S. against plan to destroy spy satellite
  4. Wired. 2008. How China Loses the Coming Space War (Pt. 1)
  5. Pei, Minxin. (2007). Corruption Threatens China’s Future. Carnegie: Endowment for International Peace. Policy Brief 55
  6. Bloom, Erik, Vincent de Wit, and Mary Jane Carangal-San Jose. 2005. Potential Economic Impact of an Avian Flu Pandemic on Asia. ERD Policy Brief Series No. 42. Manila : Asian Development Bank. November.
  7. Brahm, Laurence J. 2001. China’s Century: The Awakening of the Next Economic Powerhouse. Singapore: John Wiley & Sons (Asia) Pte Ltd.
  8. Zhang, Zeng, Mako & Seward. 2009. Promoting Enterprise-Led Innovation in China. The World Bank.
  9. Miaojie, Yu. 2009. Global Times. Domestic markets can't sustain China's growth
  10. The Economist. 2009. China and the West: A time for muscle-flexing
  11. National Geographic. 2008. China's Journey
  12. Chen, Kun, and Martin Kenney. 2005. University/Research Institute-Industry Linkages in Two Chinese Cities : Commercializing Technological Innovation. To be presented at “Universities as Drivers of the Urban Economies in Asia” sponsored by the World Bank and Social Research Council. 24-25 May.
  13. Courrier International. 2005. La Chine des Chinois. Hors-Série, Juin-Juillet-Août. France.
  14. Crane, Keith, Roger Cliff, Evan Medeiros, James Mulvenon, and William Overholt. 2005. Modernizing China’s Military: Opportunities and Constraints. RAND Corporation.
  15. Economy, Elizabeth C. 2004. The River Runs Black: The environmental challenge to China’s future. Ithaca & London: Cornell University Press.
  16. Hale, David (Hale Advisers, LLC). 2005. China’s Currency Conundrum. Central Banking Volume XVI No.1. London: Central Banking Publications.
  17. Smil, Vaclav. 2004. China’s Past, China’s Future: energy, food, environment. New York, NY and Great Britain : RoutledgeCurzon.
  18. UBS Securities Asia Ltd, UBS Investment Research. 2005. How to Think About China. Asian Economic Perspectives. Hong Kong. 6 January.
  19. Morgan Stanley Equity Research. 2004. New Tigers of Asia. India and China: A Special Economic Analysis. Asia/Pacific, 26 July.
  20. Orr, Gordon R. 2004. The aging of China. The McKinsey Quarterly 2004 special edition: China today.
  21. Clifford Coonan.10 Mar.2006. "China’s Boom is Killing Sea That Gives It Life, Warn Scientists." Independent News and Media Limited.
  22. Wenping, He. 2007. The Balancing Act of China's Africa Policy.