Difference between revisions of "Future of Broadband"

From ScenarioThinking
Jump to navigation Jump to search
m
Line 19: Line 19:


==INTRODUCTION==
==INTRODUCTION==
With more that 100 million broadband users the underlying access technology of the internet is changing. This enables a new set of applications, new business models and the revisiting of old business models. People today spend four times as much time on the internet as in the heydays of 2000. Very different conceptions of broadband access. Several of the cable and television and telecoms companies see broadband as distribution means for, television, similar to the airwaves, but in this case allowing for pay for view access of the content, therefore would like high downstream speeds and low upstream speed. Internet companies (Google, Yahoo, Amazon) see this as interactive infrastructure and therefore want more synchronous (i.e. equal up and downstream speeds). The current debate of net neutrality, is the start of the coming painful convergence of television, music and telephony on the internet and IP as a base architecture.
We have been requested to come up with 3 scenario for our client, '''KPN'''. KPN is faced with a challenge: Wimax technology is developing rapidly and they wonder if they should invest in this new technology. WiMax have clear advantages: full freedom and mobility (can work from the park), cheaper than UMTS, constant connectivity; but after the flop of 3G/ UMTS such investment decisions make the top management nervous and they want to know whether they should invest, and if so when they should start their investment? As a first mover or after letting another player pays the cost of the learning curve? Does this have to be at industry wide effort at the European level? Considering that Wimax addresses the needs of outdoor professional primarily, coverage is crucial else UMTS is a better option. So, where should the investment start, in the main cities or nationally? How fast should it spread to the rural areas? Who is going to be responsible for paying the costs of such an infrastructure (can they expect the government to subsidize this infrastructure)? Which clients should be the first targets (business or consumers?)? KPN also wonders about the impact of network externalities (computers, PDA’s) on the demand for mobile technologies and the effects that exit barriers in some countries will have on the European diffusion on WiMax technologies (France and Finland have barred access to this technology to protect their UMTS investments).


== CATEGORIES ==
== CATEGORIES ==

Revision as of 13:51, 7 June 2006

. Good start.  
. I cannot see the answers to the questions here?
. I like the driving forces that you have done.
. Would like to see at least 8 driving forces (that is 2 DF /per person in the group)
. Have you found other groups DF to be useful to you?
. I can't see the systems diagram? -> can you upload it and mail me so that I can comment on it!


GROUP MEMBERS

We are the MBA students from the Amsterdam Business School UvA. Our Group comprises of:

  1. Edurne Ozaeta
  2. Jacob Oskam
  3. Murat Ögat
  4. Magali Bongrand


INTRODUCTION

We have been requested to come up with 3 scenario for our client, KPN. KPN is faced with a challenge: Wimax technology is developing rapidly and they wonder if they should invest in this new technology. WiMax have clear advantages: full freedom and mobility (can work from the park), cheaper than UMTS, constant connectivity; but after the flop of 3G/ UMTS such investment decisions make the top management nervous and they want to know whether they should invest, and if so when they should start their investment? As a first mover or after letting another player pays the cost of the learning curve? Does this have to be at industry wide effort at the European level? Considering that Wimax addresses the needs of outdoor professional primarily, coverage is crucial else UMTS is a better option. So, where should the investment start, in the main cities or nationally? How fast should it spread to the rural areas? Who is going to be responsible for paying the costs of such an infrastructure (can they expect the government to subsidize this infrastructure)? Which clients should be the first targets (business or consumers?)? KPN also wonders about the impact of network externalities (computers, PDA’s) on the demand for mobile technologies and the effects that exit barriers in some countries will have on the European diffusion on WiMax technologies (France and Finland have barred access to this technology to protect their UMTS investments).

CATEGORIES

We consider the following questions crucial in understanding the broadband technology and it's future:

  1. Basic Questions
  2. Current Issues
  3. Trends and Future Issues

These are elaborated in next section.

RESEARCH QUESTIONS

Basic Questions on Broadband

  • What is broadband?
  • What are the advantages of broadband?
  • What are the techniques available?


Current Issues in Broadband

  • What are the current usages of broadband?
  • What is the current broadband penetration?
  • Who are the main players?
  • what are the main bottlenecks to broadband diffusion?
  • How is the internal rivalry among the main players?


Trends in Broadband

  • What broadband techniques will emerge in the future?
  • Will the emerging broadband-over-powerline (BPL) technology be successful?
  • What are the future opportunities of broadband?
  • Will the limited availabilty of broadband in under-developed countries limit their development?
  • What will be the issues raised in mass multimedia download and sharing related to broadband growth?
  • When will hardware bottlenecks limit the growth of broadband?
  • When will the marginal utility of increased bandwidth be negligible?
  • What security problems arise by the combination of fast computational speed limits and broadband communications?
  • What problems have to be solved before broadband communication can be used as a substitute to other ways of communication?


DRIVING FORCES

3 Variables are of crucial importance for the future of broadband. Those are

Speed of Broadband

The infrastructure, standards and device capabilities will affect the future of the speed of broadband. Increased speed is the key enabler for any optimistic Internet scenario.

Applications of Broadband

The more applications using broadband connection are available, the more business will be moved to the Internet. This variable represents the usefulness level of the increased technology and faster broadband.

Penetration of Broadband

This driving force defines the cultural acceptance and usage of broadband Internet in the world. It is the direct driver of all Internet-based markets.


SCENARIO SYSTEM DIAGRAM

SCENARIOS

Useful links:

http://www.oecd.org/document/39/0,2340,en_2649_34223_36459431_1_1_1_1,00.html

Retrieved from "https://www.scenariothinking.org/index.php?title=Future_of_Broadband&oldid=18002"