Followup: Understanding the signs
A critical question to be answered by the scenarios created in our project is whether we will know when they have been realized. In other words, what signs will tip us off to their actualization. Answering these questions must be framed in the logic of the systems diagram, and we will present several examples that would indicate whether the Internet is in fact evolving in the future in the ways we predict they might in our scenarios.
First, we must ask the question of whether the Internet will continue to transform society. If nothing radical changes in the next ten years – which is the timeframe chosen for all of our scenarios – then we will assume the “More of the Same” scenario has in fact been realized. However, what if nothing changes in seven years? Will that also be a strong indicator that the “More of the Same” scenario is in fact being realized? We argue that looking for indicators at seven years and then again at ten years are the right timeframes for measuring signs. In other words, if nothing changes in seven years then we will be satisfied that nothing radical will change in ten years either.
A sign indicating that the Internet is continuing to transform society is if it continues to evolve at a radical pace. Moore’s Law (http://www.intel.com/research/silicon/mooreslaw.htm), which states that the computing power of a chip doubles every 18 months while its size halves, has proven true for decades. Metcalfe's Law (http://en.wikipedia.org/w/wiki.phtml?title=Metcalfe%27s_law&redirect=no) which states that the value of a network increases by its square with every node added, is a bit more difficult to measure and observe than Moore’s Law. However, as the Internet continues to gain momentum from both social and technological aspects, we can assume that Metcalfe’s Law continues to be valid. For example, the rapid adoption of 3G mobile telephony in the coming few years and the subsequent take-up of 4G thereafter would indicate that Metcalfe’s Law is valid. If both Moore’s Law and Metcalfe’s Law sustain for the next ten years, then we can assume that the transformation powers of the Internet will be sustained as well.