Energy scenarios

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What will the energy market look like in the next 15 years?

MBA students Sunny Bantvawala, Tortsten Christensen, Wouter Haasloop Werner and Mark Scholten at the Rotterdam School of Management asked themselves this question and came up with some interesting scenarios. Download their full report Media:here.

Critical uncertainties that bring forth these scenarios

  • Supply - Will there be a major supply crisis or will the world transform its useage of energy sources without a major crisis? Included in this uncertainty is the question whether in the case of a supply crisis the world will switch to dominantly nuclear or renewable energy sources.
  • Power - Will Supply shortage lead to global power shifts or the emergence of new powers?
  • Environment - Will environmental issues enforce substitution of oil by other sources of energy?
  • Demand - Will demand for energy develop towards substitution or a mix of energy sources?

Scenarios derived from the interplay of uncertainties and their driving forces

We are riding down a hill and have no breaks

A fast but steady transition to renewables forced by a shortage of oil supply

The environment forces us to change to renewables

Voluntary change to a better stewardship