Difference between revisions of "Energy crisis in Asia"

From ScenarioThinking
Jump to navigation Jump to search
 
(22 intermediate revisions by 4 users not shown)
Line 1: Line 1:
==Description:==
==Description:==
Economic growth in China have contributed to world economy, but some problems emerged as the result of the rapid growth in China. One of the most serious problems is energy problem. Recently, consumption of electricity and gas for automobiles is rapidly increasing in China because of rapid industrialization and increase of automobiles. Actually, supply of electricity was limited in 26 provinces in China in 2004. It is said that China will face serious shortage of electricity in Shanghai area in summer in 2005. The crisis will trigger many issues not only in Asia but also in the world.
While economic growth in China has certainly contributed to the world economy there have also been problems as the result of the growth. One of the most serious problems is a shortage of energy. The energy shortage will continue into the future due to China's economic growth, which is being fueled by the infrastructure and manufacturing industries. Consumption of electricity and oil for automobiles is rapidly increasing in China because of industrialization and an increase of automobiles. In spite of the rapid industrialization the supply of electricity was limited in 26 provinces in China in 2004.  


- Slowing down chinese economy resulting in slowing down world economy
An energy crisis slows down Chinese economy which can result in slowing of the world economy. The 2008 energy crisis in China damaged power infrastructure resulting in further energy shortfalls in the manufacturing hub of Guangdong.
- Higher price of energy (oil, natural gas, uranium, etc)
- Higher tension on territorial dispute among Asian countries to secure potential oil region (South China Sea, northern territories between Japan and Russia), etc
- Bad effect on supply of goods from China to the world


==Enablers:==
==Enablers:==
- Development of new energy source around China
*Extreme cold temperatures
 
*Market manipulation
- Amicable solution on potential oil region in South China Sea and then development of the area
*Industrial actions
 
*Disasters
- Successful govermental regulation for rapid growth of energy consumption in China
*Instability in key producing regions
 
*Clash of Asian countries over territorial disputes of potential energy sources
- Pupularization of hybrid or fuel-cell car in China, U.S, and other countries
*Failure of regulation on energy consumption and then sudden energy crisis in China
 
*Failure of development of alternative energy
- Amicable solution in Middle East


==Inhibitors:==
==Inhibitors:==
- Clash of Asian countries on territorial dispute on potential energy sources
*Energy conservation
 
*Development of new and larger power plants
- Failure of regulation on energy consumption and then sudden energy crisis in China
*Development of new energy sources
 
*Amicable solution on the potential oil region in the South China Sea and then development of the area
- Failure of Middle East peace efforts
*Successful governmental regulation for rapid growth of energy consumption in China
 
*Hybrid or fuel-cell cars in China, U.S, and other countries
- Failure of development of alternative energy
*Amicable solution in Middle East
*Securing coal and natural gas supplies with long term contracts


==Paradigms:==
==Paradigms:==


 
*The energy crises have changed the way the world sees China's rapid growth. China's reliance on coal fired power plants it quickly moving them up the list of carbon emissions putting question marks above the way developing eceonomies generate their power.
 
*A longer term energy crisis in China would stifle the economic growth and drive up energy commodity prices. This would impact the world and focus national interests either on the development of new sources of energy or on the securing of natural resources.
 


==Timing:==
==Timing:==
*'90s Chinese government revised its policy on self-sufficiency of energy because of the rapid increase of energy consumption in China
*'93 China became a net importer of oil
*'94 U.S and North Korea agree on KEDO
*'01 China and Russia agree on an oil pipeline construction
*'03 U.S, Japan and South Korea agree to freeze KEDO program
*'05 China (CNPC) takes over Kazakhstan's oil company
*'05 China secures oil rights in Iran, Kazakhstan, Iraq, Sudan, Venezuela
*'05 China experiences severe energy shortgaes
*'08 China again experiences severe energy shortgaes resulting in damage to power networks


1995: WTO agreement lets countries ban trade where it has national laws designed to “protect public morals”, which would seem to cover gambling, at least from an American perspective.
==Web Resources:==


2003: An American government body, the Defense Advanced Research Projects Agency, tried to create an exchange to trade contracts on the likelihood of a terrorist attack.
[[http://www.kedo.org/ The Korean Peninsula Energy Development Organization ]]


2003: Market trading in contracts which paid off in Saddam Hussein was removed as leader of Iraq.
[[http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/business/3828801.stm BBC: Energy crisis in China ]]
 
Nov. 10, 2004: WTO decision that old American laws prohibiting gambling over wires that cross state lines violate global trade rules for the services sector.
 
==Web Resources:==


House of Cards: The WTO and Online Gambling from the Economist
[[http://www.lanl.gov/orgs/d/d4/energy/engchina.html China Energy Study ]]
http://www.economist.com/research/articlesBySubject/displayStory.cfm?story_id=3411641&subjectID=682268&emailauth=%2527%252FUOH%255F%253CC0SP%255C%2520%250A


Guessing Games from the Economist
[[http://www.bizjournals.com/dayton/stories/2004/03/22/focus2.html Hybrid Car is getting popular ]]
http://www.economist.com/research/articlesBySubject/displayStory.cfm?story_id=3400241&subjectID=348918&emailauth=%2527%2528%2540%252E7%2525%255C%255C%253B3%2540%255C%2520%250A


Using Markets to Inform Policy: The Case of the Iraq War from Stanford University
[[http://www.atimes.com/atimes/China/FI24Ad06.html China power crisis dims production ]]
http://faculty-gsb.stanford.edu/zitzewitz/Research/usingmarkets.pdf


How Information Markets Could Change the Policy World from the Brookings Institute
[[http://biz.yahoo.com/opt/050906/7c30cb7f728a303d0774062d708ce7a6.html?.v=1 Katrina May Cause Genuine Energy Crisis ]]
http://www.aei-brookings.org/admin/authorpdfs/page.php?id=1019

Latest revision as of 21:32, 17 September 2009

Description:

While economic growth in China has certainly contributed to the world economy there have also been problems as the result of the growth. One of the most serious problems is a shortage of energy. The energy shortage will continue into the future due to China's economic growth, which is being fueled by the infrastructure and manufacturing industries. Consumption of electricity and oil for automobiles is rapidly increasing in China because of industrialization and an increase of automobiles. In spite of the rapid industrialization the supply of electricity was limited in 26 provinces in China in 2004.

An energy crisis slows down Chinese economy which can result in slowing of the world economy. The 2008 energy crisis in China damaged power infrastructure resulting in further energy shortfalls in the manufacturing hub of Guangdong.

Enablers:

  • Extreme cold temperatures
  • Market manipulation
  • Industrial actions
  • Disasters
  • Instability in key producing regions
  • Clash of Asian countries over territorial disputes of potential energy sources
  • Failure of regulation on energy consumption and then sudden energy crisis in China
  • Failure of development of alternative energy

Inhibitors:

  • Energy conservation
  • Development of new and larger power plants
  • Development of new energy sources
  • Amicable solution on the potential oil region in the South China Sea and then development of the area
  • Successful governmental regulation for rapid growth of energy consumption in China
  • Hybrid or fuel-cell cars in China, U.S, and other countries
  • Amicable solution in Middle East
  • Securing coal and natural gas supplies with long term contracts

Paradigms:

  • The energy crises have changed the way the world sees China's rapid growth. China's reliance on coal fired power plants it quickly moving them up the list of carbon emissions putting question marks above the way developing eceonomies generate their power.
  • A longer term energy crisis in China would stifle the economic growth and drive up energy commodity prices. This would impact the world and focus national interests either on the development of new sources of energy or on the securing of natural resources.

Timing:

  • '90s Chinese government revised its policy on self-sufficiency of energy because of the rapid increase of energy consumption in China
  • '93 China became a net importer of oil
  • '94 U.S and North Korea agree on KEDO
  • '01 China and Russia agree on an oil pipeline construction
  • '03 U.S, Japan and South Korea agree to freeze KEDO program
  • '05 China (CNPC) takes over Kazakhstan's oil company
  • '05 China secures oil rights in Iran, Kazakhstan, Iraq, Sudan, Venezuela
  • '05 China experiences severe energy shortgaes
  • '08 China again experiences severe energy shortgaes resulting in damage to power networks

Web Resources:

[The Korean Peninsula Energy Development Organization ]

[BBC: Energy crisis in China ]

[China Energy Study ]

[Hybrid Car is getting popular ]

[China power crisis dims production ]

[Katrina May Cause Genuine Energy Crisis ]

Retrieved from "https://www.scenariothinking.org/index.php?title=Energy_crisis_in_Asia&oldid=29320"