Electronic Commerce

Talk about the future of the Internet in 10 years is a difficult task for anyone, however I will try to touch on some important themes. One theme, which emerges strongly from all planning for Internet improvements, is the need for the Internet to support different levels of service if it is to continue to expand. Most people are happy if their electronic mail reaches its destinations with a delay of some minutes, and would even occasionally accept delays of several hours, especially for overnight delivery, provided that the mail indeed always arrives. On the other hand, delivery of a meaningful stream of audio or video information requires that the packets be delivered immediately, in good order, and with very little loss. Efforts to improve our understanding in this area, which have both research and development components, will obviously be of extreme importance to the companies building Internet switches over the next few years, and also to providers of Internet-based services, who may, or may not, be able to exploit this improved understanding. About electronic commerce people have started to use the name "Electronic Commerce" to cover the impact that the "Internet Economy" will make on the way in which every citizen and every enterprise, of whatever size, goes about the business of acquiring and providing goods and services. When these goods and services can be inspected and compared on the Internet in a way which provides the buyer with at least as much information as they can acquire in local or even in specialized shops, we can all see that the implications will be very profound, and likely to have a very significant effect on all economies. Much of the most interesting work on new "Electronic Commerce" applications is being carried out in the USA, despite the existence of Europeans with enough exciting new ideas, and skills to implement them. This is because the critical mass of Internet connectivity, and especially connectivity at adequate bandwidth, is not available in Europe. The effect of the two to three year time-lag between Internet deployment in Europe and the USA, which does not sound so much, is dangerous, in that it effectively means that very much of the leading-edge work on new Internet applications is being carried on outside in the USA. We risk seeing the major "Electronic Commerce" applications develop with a distinctly American flavor. We will end up needing visas to access some websites