EU as a Counterweight to America

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Description:

The last rival superpower to the US, the Soviet Union, collapsed at the end of the Cold War, and quite apart from its military strength, was in any case never powerful enough in other ways to counterbalance US influence. Japan had in the late 1980s seemed capable of challenging America’s industrial leadership, but by the 1990s it had lost its competitive edge. China might wish to be a major force in a multipolar world, but has been plagued by its lack of overall strength. Given these realities, the expanding EU has ambitions to be counter to United States’ unchecked power.

Enablers:

  • the EU of 27 member states today generates the same amount of wealth as the United States.
  • It has more people (454.7 million) than the United States—a larger consumer market—more troops (collectively, almost two million armed forces personnel)—and, with more votes on the United Nations Security Council and every other international body, stronger political muscle.
  • A common European culture is emerging among the generation ranging from ages 15 to 40
  • Increasing power of the Euro

Inhibitors:

  • The EU lacks a joint military arsenal, and more significantly European security and defence policy is still characterised by divergent national policies.
  • With 25 democratic nations each having a say in EU affairs, the government is too large and unwieldy to govern efficiently and effectively.
  • To become a federal superstate with supranational governance, capable of executing decisions with speed and precision, Europe must have a strong leader guiding the way.

Paradigms:

The rise of EU as a counterweight to the US does not mean that it will lead to armed conflict between the United States and Europe. But it could result in a dramatically different — and much less benign — world than the one we live in today.

In a few years, America and Europe may both be spending much more time worrying about the rise of Asia than about each other. For now, however, it is Europe that is America’s only major competitor in terms of political and economic clout.

Experts:

  • Politicians


Timing:

Web Resources:

http://www.realtruth.org/articles/413-tec.html <BR\> http://www.cas.fudan.edu.cn/picture/1397.pdf

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