Difference between revisions of "Climate Change Negotiations"

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How would the climate change negotiations evolve in the coming 10 years? A scenario set that explores the different pathways that negotiations on Climate change will take in the next 10 years. Will there be multilateral agreements lead by the UN, or bilateral agreements, will countries or companies be in the lead, will this result in a new economic order, etc.
= Group Members =
 
== Group Members ==
 
[[Bastian Wollenschein]]<br>
[[Bastian Wollenschein]]<br>
[[Rohit Patnekar]]<br>
[[Rohit Patnekar]]<br>
Line 9: Line 6:
[[Rachit Tayal]]<br>
[[Rachit Tayal]]<br>


== The Focal Issue ==
= Numbers That Matter Presentation =
How would the climate change negotiations evolve in the coming 10 years? <br>
 
[[Antiretroviral_Therapy_Programme_for_South_Africa|ART Programme in South Africa]]
 
= Introduction =
[[File:Unfccc.jpg|thumb| UNFCCC |300px]]
[[File:Cop16.jpg|thumb| COP-16, Cancun|300px]]


== Questions to research ==
Climate forms a very critical part of the ecosystem that sustains life on earth and it is changing rapidly due to human activity. Almost every strategic decision today is in some way dependent on how the climate change would evolve in coming years. Although the extent of change and its consequences are being investigated by scientist, the action lies within the jurisdiction of the national governments and any success depends on their collaboration and leadership. The United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) is the joint treaty that looks into the aspect of reducing green house gases by emission reduction and ensuring economic growth in tandem. Despite major efforts from several nations no concrete steps in emission reductions have emerged till now, the future of these negotiations is critical to rationally understand the uncertainties involved and thereafter devise a strategy that fits all probably futures.<br><br>
1. [[What is a current state of negotiations process?]]<br>
Hence, on this page we explore the different possibilities for the climate change negotiation by asking:'' �How would the climate change negotiations evolve in the coming 10 years?�''<br><br>
The main topic under discussion is replacement/extension for a Kyoto protocol, which expires in 2012. Unfortunately negotiations in Copenhagen did not bring expected results. Current version of possible future agreement is still under discussion on a very early stage. A lot of parties can not find consensus on a topic. <br><br>
Therefore, this scenario set explores the different pathways that negotiations on Climate change will take in the next 10 years. <br><br>
 
= The Focal Issue =
----
'''How would the climate change negotiations evolve in the coming 10 years?''' <br>
----
<br>
<br>
 
= Scenario Tree =
[[File:CLimate change scenario tree.jpg|600px|thumb| centre |Scenario Tree]]
 
= Scenario Stories =
The following are the four scenario stories detailing different futures for climate change negotiations in 2020:<br>
*;[[Stalemate]]
:''Deadlock among stake holders''
*;[[G20]]
:''Multilateral Agreement through G20''
*;[[A Lost Purpose]]
:''Negotiations succeed but earth dies''
*;[[Mardi Gras]]
:''Negotiations succeed & earth survives''
 
= Stakeholder Analysis =
== Countries ==
1. [[US]]<br>
2. [[EU]]<br>
3. [[China]]<br>
4. [[India]]<br>
5. [[Brazil]]<br>
6. [[Russia]]<br>
7. [[South Africa]]<br>
8. [[OPEC]]<br>
9. [[Island Nations]]<br>
10. [[Japan]]<br>
 
== Other Stake Holders ==
1. [[IPCC]]<br>
2. [[NGOs]]<br>
3. [[Media]]<br>
4. [[Lobbyists]]<br>
 
=System diagram=


2. Why the negotiations are necessary and so important?<br>
[[File:Systems_CCN.JPG|200px|]]<br>
The world need to set a new target after Kyoto Protocol and Copenhagen Accord. It is required to reduce pace with which developing countries are increasing their CO2 emissions (in order not to slow down their growth) and reduce total amount of emissions for developed countries to prevent disastrous climate and ecological changes in the nearest decades. Total reduction should be at least 20%. Some parties, such as EU, are trying to reduce amount of emissions on more that target 20%, other parties decline to take any actions. Only 25% of participants (in terms of CO2 emissions amount)took the responsibility during Copenhagen meeting. Therefore negotiations are needed without any doubts.<br><br>


3. How the negotiations are being pursued by different parties and who are the major parties trying to slow down the proccess? <br>
Separate subsystems for the main negotiations participants could be found under the Countries section above
Developing countries such as China and India, OPEC countries, and mainly U.S. are going against restriction suggested in Kyoto protocol. For U.S. it does not seem that they will change their position in the future.<br><br>


4. How does the negotiation proccess work?<br>
= Questions to research =
Basically, they have negotiation meetings in every working day in the EU organization. After all the EU member make a deal, they starts processing regin to regin or regin to country negotiations in each international climate change meeting. ''will elaborate on this''<br><br>


==The negotiation process==
1. [[What is a current state of negotiations process?]]<br>
2.[[ Why the negotiations are necessary and so important?]]<br>
3. [[How the negotiations are being pursued by different parties and who are the major parties trying to slow down the proccess?]] <br>
4. [[How does the negotiation proccess work?]]<br>
5. [[Could an agreement upon GHG reduction be reached outside of the UN (UNFCCC)? (I.e. within the context of another group of countries.)]]<br>
5. [[Could an agreement upon GHG reduction be reached outside of the UN (UNFCCC)? (I.e. within the context of another group of countries.)]]<br>
<br>
6. [[Who are the members of a team representing a country at these negotiations?]]<br>
6. [[What is the position of the Netherlands in climate negotiations and how is the country affected by climatic change?]]<br><br>
 
==Stakeholder in the negotiations==
7. [[What is the position of the Netherlands in climate negotiations and how is the country affected by climatic change?]]<br>
8. [[What is the position of oil producing countries in the negotiations?]]<br>
9. [[Role of corporations in the negotiations?]]<br>
10. [[Role of media?]]<br>
11. [[Who will drive this more going forward?]]<br>
12. [[In EU climate change organization, do you have negotiations between members?]]<br>
13. [[Who has better relationship with Netherlands in climate change negotiation aspect?]]<br>
 
==Events as driving forces==
14. [[Did the recent finance crisis affect the climate change negotiations?]]<br>
15. [[What other topics could switch public focus from climate change issue?]]<br>
16. [[What kind of numbers are the negotiations target?]] <br>
17. [[What is the role of technology?]]<br>


7. [[What is the position of oil producing countries in the negotiations?]]<br>
==Independent questions==
18. [[Is there a real evidence of climate change happening?]]<br>
19. [[Is the gap between government policy and negotiation target/result huge?]]<br>
20. [[Is there any risk for climate change negotiation?]]<br><br>
<br>
<br>


8. [[Did the recent finance crisis affect the climate change negotiations?]]<br>
= Driving forces =
<br><br>


9. Who are the members of a team representing a country at these negotiations?<br>
== Environmental Driving Forces ==
The team is generally a delegation consisting of politicians, diplomats, technical experts and they represent their country (European Union incase of Europe) in the negotiations. They are bound by a framework on which clauses to accept and reject based on the discussions they have had with their country (EU incase of Europe) leaders.
1. [[Greenhouse gas increase]]<br>
2. [[Catastrophes_-_Acts_of_God|Catastrophes - Acts of God]]<br>


== Political Driving Forces ==
1. [[Expiration of Kyoto protocol]]<br>
2. [[Increasing Commitment from China]]<br>
3. [[Position of US|Increasing involvement of US]]<br>
4. [[Position of developing nations| Increasing involvement of developing nations]]<br>


10. Who will drive this more going forward?<br>  
== Societal Driving Forces ==
There is no clear indication as to who would drive this discussion in Mexico (Nov 2010) and in future. One thought is that powerful countries such as USA or Europe may drive it and other thought is developing nations such as China and India may be the ones giving these negotiations a direction going forward<br>
1. [[Urbanisation]]<br>
2. [[Increasing influence of media]]<br>
3. [[Initiative from cities]]<br>
4. [[Dynamics of Public Support]]<br>


11. Role of corporations in the negotiations?<br>
== Economic Driving Forces ==
Role of corporations is never seen directly during the negotiations. These corportations generally work behind the scene and are very active particularly in developing nations. They generally try to influence the country delegations on which clauses of LCA to accept and which to reject based on the business benefits (or problems) they envisage. The other thought is that going forward these are the ones who would be majorly hit incase of any major disaster and thus may force their governments to act and act fast on climate change.
1. [[Carbon Trading, Finances and related Economics]]<br>
2. [[Position of Corporates]]<br>
3. [[Bilateral Trade]]<br>
4. [[Oil Supply and Demand Dynamics]]<br>


== Technological Driving Forces ==
1. [[Advancement in Nuclear Power Generation]]<br>
2. [[Development of Cheaper & Efficient Solar Panels]]<br>
3. [[Development of Alternate Energy Sources]]<br><br>
<br>


12. Role of media?<br>
= Useful sources =
Media is a big stakeholder in Climate Change negotiations and its role is critical. Recent coverage (almost real time) of Copenhagen summit and the ongoing coverage of BP oil spill in Gulf of Mexico is a clear indication that media will be involved and will guide the actions of the head of states during the negotiations.


==Books==
-Daniel Erasmus, The future of ICT in financial services, DTN Press, Amsterdam, 2008


13. What other topics could switch public focus from climate change issue?<br>
==Webpages organizations==
The answer will be related to whole social or economic situation at the specific moment. For example, the rising financial crisis caused most of the countries changing their policy priorites.<br><br>
-[http://unfccc.int/2860.php United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change]<br>
14. What kind of numbers are the negotiations target? <br>
-[http://unfccc.int/kyoto_protocol/items/2830.php Kyoto Protocol]<br>
Two major numbers are the targets. One is the climate related numbers, such as the reduction amount of green gas, another number is about the budget, like the budget using to support developing countries according to copenhagen accord. <br><br>
-[http://www.ipcc.ch/organization/organization.htm Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change]<br>
15. What is the role of technology?<br>
-[http://www.ipcc.ch/publications_and_data/publications_and_data_reports.htm#1 IPCC 4th assessment report]<br>
Technology is a factor to push positive negotiation results. However, new technology dose not mean lower cost for reduce green gas, and therefore the synergy of applying new technology plays a more important role.<br><br>
-[http://www.ipcc.ch/pdf/assessment-report/ar4/wg1/ar4-wg1-spm.pdf Summary for Policy Makers]<BR>
16. In EU climate change organization, do you have negotiations between members? and who<br>
-[http://www.erim.eur.nl/ERIM/Research/Centres/Sustainability_and_Climate_Research_%28SCR%29 ERIM SCR from RSM]<br>
The negotiations between EU members happens in every morning.<BR><BR> 
17. Who has better relationship with Netherlands in climate change negotiation aspect?<br>
Besides EU member countries, Netherlands also has good relationship with other non-EU countries, such as Indonesia, Colombia, and Mexico.<br><br>
18. Is there a real evidence of climate change happening?<br>
Yes: <br>
1/ Floods in Pakistan<br>
2/ Fires in Russia<br>
3/ Unexpected hot and cold weather in Europe<br>
<br><br>
19. Is the gap between government policy and negotiation target/result huge?<br>
EU has smaller gap comparing to U.S. and China. It is because the EU government policy is made accoridng to the negociation result.<br><br>
20. Is there any risk for climate change negotiation?<br>
One of the risk is the public voice, which usually is influenced by media.
 
== Driving forces ==
1. [[Greenhouse gas increase]]<br>
2. [http://www.scenariothinking.org/wiki/index.php/Catastrophes_-_Acts_of_God Catastrophes - Acts of God]<br>
3. Urbanisation<br>
4. Increasing influence of media<br>
5. Expiration of Kyoto protocol<br>
6. Oil Supply and Demand Dynamics<br>
7. Increasing Commitment from China<br>
8. [[Position of US|Increasing involvement of US]]<br>
9. [[Position of developing nations| Increasing involvement of developing nations]]<br>
10. [[Dynamics of Public Support]]<br>
11. Carbon Trading, Finances and related Economics<br>
12. Innovation in Technology and Energy<br>
13. Position of Corporates<br>


== Data/Numbers ==
==Articles and protocols==
-[http://www.pbl.nl/en/publications/2007/Post-2012ClimatePolicyScenarios.html Post-2012 Climate Policy Scenario]<br>
-[http://www.state.gov/r/pa/ei/bgn/3204.htm Netherlands]<br>
-Annual European Community greenhouse gas
inventory 1990�2007 and inventory report 2009[http://www.eea.europa.eu/publications/european-community-greenhouse-gas-inventory-2009/european-community-ghg-inventory-2014-full-report.pdf ]<BR>
-[http://www.worldenergyoutlook.org/docs/weo2009/climate_change_excerpt.pdf Climate change except by region or country, by IEA]<br>
-[http://www.unc.edu/depts/diplomat/item/2010/0406/comm/criekemans_copenhagen.html Post Copenhagen from a geopolitical perspective]<br>
-The AWG-LCA n�11 from Aug 2010[http://unfccc.int/resource/docs/2010/awglca12/eng/14.pdf]<br>
-Summary of the above [http://unfccc.int/resource/docs/2010/awglca11/eng/08.pdf]<br>
-[http://ec.europa.eu/trade/creating-opportunities/bilateral-relations/countries/china/ EU Commission on trade with China]<br>
-[http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2010/02/21/dutch-troops-to-pull-out_n_470708.html]<br>
-[http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/US_attack_on_Iraq Attack_on_Iraq]<br>
-[http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Operation_Enduring_Freedom Operation Enduring Freedom]<br>
-[http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/War_in_Afghanistan_(2001%E2%80%93present) War in Afghanistan]<br>
-[http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/9/11]<br>
-[http://across.co.nz/WorldsWorstDisasters.html]<br>
-[http://www.sciencedirect.com/science?_ob=ArticleURL&_udi=B6VFV-3XR2V33-6&_user=10&_coverDate=10%2F31%2F1999&_rdoc=1&_fmt=high&_orig=search&_sort=d&_docanchor=&view=c&_searchStrId=1434235932&_rerunOrigin=scholar.google&_acct=C000050221&_version=1&_urlVersion=0&_userid=10&md5=caa5fa5558aea88a05f7c941f4a1d8d9]<br>
-[http://unfccc.int/2860.php UNFCCC]<br>
-[http://www.ipcc.ch/organization/organization.htm IPCC]<br>
-[http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Urbanization Urbanization]


(1..the 20th century.<br>
==Videos==
184 countries ratified Kyoto Protocol as of January 2009<br>
-James Hanson to DTN (confidential therefore not published)<br>
Kyoto Protocol will expire in 2012<br>
-[http://www.pbs.org/wgbh/pages/frontline/heat/view/ Smith, Martin; Heat from the U.S.]<br>
Mechanisms of Kyoto protocol:<br>
-[http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=VZwzG20O4s8 Meet the BINGOs]<br>
*[[Emissions Trading]]
-[http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=tfhKx6Byjrw The Carbon Market Lobby]<br>
:
-[http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=MLHLNywrPBg The Oil and Coal Lobbies]<br>
*[[Clean Development Mechanism (CDM)]]
-[http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jl7nc4UfP3I The Agriculture Lobby]<br>
:
-[http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0eoSUoENIpk The Electricity and Gas Lobbies]<br>
*[[Joint Implementation (JI)]]
-[http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=fRQKfLj-598 The Alternative Energy Lobby]<br>
:
-[http://www.danwei.org/featured_video/hans_rosling_on_chinas_rise.php Hans Rosling on China]<br>
-[http://www.gapminder.org/videos/gapcasts/gapcast-2-urbanization/ Hans Rosling on urbanization]


== Useful sources ==
==Data and graphs==
1. [http://unfccc.int/2860.php United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change]<br>
-[http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/File:Carbon_History_and_Flux_Rev.png Carbon history]<br>
2. [http://unfccc.int/kyoto_protocol/items/2830.php Kyoto Protocol]<br>
-[http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/File:Global_Carbon_Emissions.svg Carbon emissions]<br>
3. [http://www.ipcc.ch/organization/organization.htm Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change]<br>
-[http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/File:CO2_increase_rate.png Co2 increase]<br>
4. [http://www.ipcc.ch/publications_and_data/publications_and_data_reports.htm#1 IPCC 4th assessment report]<br>
-[http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/File:Major_greenhouse_gas_trends.png GHG trends]<br>
5. [http://www.ipcc.ch/pdf/assessment-report/ar4/wg1/ar4-wg1-spm.pdf Summary for Policy Makers]<BR>
-[http://unfccc.int/files/ghg_data/ghg_data_unfccc/image/pjpeg/trends_excluding_2009.jpg GHG trends according to UNFCCC]<br>
6. [http://www.pbl.nl/en/publications/2007/Post-2012ClimatePolicyScenarios.html Post-2012 Climate Policy Scenario]<br>
-[http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_natural_disasters List of natural disasters]<br>
7. [http://www.state.gov/r/pa/ei/bgn/3204.htm Netherlands]<br>
8. Annual European Community greenhouse gas
[http://www.eea.europa.eu/publications/european-community-greenhouse-gas-inventory-2009/european-community-ghg-inventory-2014-full-report.pdf ]<BR>
9. [http://www.worldenergyoutlook.org/docs/weo2009/climate_change_excerpt.pdf Climate change except by region or country, by IEA]

Latest revision as of 23:14, 1 November 2021

Group Members

Bastian Wollenschein
Rohit Patnekar
Sergey Kharebov
Ling-Chin Fan
Rachit Tayal

Numbers That Matter Presentation

ART Programme in South Africa

Introduction

UNFCCC
COP-16, Cancun

Climate forms a very critical part of the ecosystem that sustains life on earth and it is changing rapidly due to human activity. Almost every strategic decision today is in some way dependent on how the climate change would evolve in coming years. Although the extent of change and its consequences are being investigated by scientist, the action lies within the jurisdiction of the national governments and any success depends on their collaboration and leadership. The United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) is the joint treaty that looks into the aspect of reducing green house gases by emission reduction and ensuring economic growth in tandem. Despite major efforts from several nations no concrete steps in emission reductions have emerged till now, the future of these negotiations is critical to rationally understand the uncertainties involved and thereafter devise a strategy that fits all probably futures.

Hence, on this page we explore the different possibilities for the climate change negotiation by asking: �How would the climate change negotiations evolve in the coming 10 years?�

Therefore, this scenario set explores the different pathways that negotiations on Climate change will take in the next 10 years.

The Focal Issue

How would the climate change negotiations evolve in the coming 10 years?



Scenario Tree

Scenario Tree

Scenario Stories

The following are the four scenario stories detailing different futures for climate change negotiations in 2020:

Deadlock among stake holders
Multilateral Agreement through G20
Negotiations succeed but earth dies
Negotiations succeed & earth survives

Stakeholder Analysis

Countries

1. US
2. EU
3. China
4. India
5. Brazil
6. Russia
7. South Africa
8. OPEC
9. Island Nations
10. Japan

Other Stake Holders

1. IPCC
2. NGOs
3. Media
4. Lobbyists

System diagram

Systems CCN.JPG

Separate subsystems for the main negotiations participants could be found under the Countries section above

Questions to research

The negotiation process

1. What is a current state of negotiations process?
2.Why the negotiations are necessary and so important?
3. How the negotiations are being pursued by different parties and who are the major parties trying to slow down the proccess?
4. How does the negotiation proccess work?
5. Could an agreement upon GHG reduction be reached outside of the UN (UNFCCC)? (I.e. within the context of another group of countries.)
6. Who are the members of a team representing a country at these negotiations?

Stakeholder in the negotiations

7. What is the position of the Netherlands in climate negotiations and how is the country affected by climatic change?
8. What is the position of oil producing countries in the negotiations?
9. Role of corporations in the negotiations?
10. Role of media?
11. Who will drive this more going forward?
12. In EU climate change organization, do you have negotiations between members?
13. Who has better relationship with Netherlands in climate change negotiation aspect?

Events as driving forces

14. Did the recent finance crisis affect the climate change negotiations?
15. What other topics could switch public focus from climate change issue?
16. What kind of numbers are the negotiations target?
17. What is the role of technology?

Independent questions

18. Is there a real evidence of climate change happening?
19. Is the gap between government policy and negotiation target/result huge?
20. Is there any risk for climate change negotiation?


Driving forces

Environmental Driving Forces

1. Greenhouse gas increase
2. Catastrophes - Acts of God

Political Driving Forces

1. Expiration of Kyoto protocol
2. Increasing Commitment from China
3. Increasing involvement of US
4. Increasing involvement of developing nations

Societal Driving Forces

1. Urbanisation
2. Increasing influence of media
3. Initiative from cities
4. Dynamics of Public Support

Economic Driving Forces

1. Carbon Trading, Finances and related Economics
2. Position of Corporates
3. Bilateral Trade
4. Oil Supply and Demand Dynamics

Technological Driving Forces

1. Advancement in Nuclear Power Generation
2. Development of Cheaper & Efficient Solar Panels
3. Development of Alternate Energy Sources


Useful sources

Books

-Daniel Erasmus, The future of ICT in financial services, DTN Press, Amsterdam, 2008

Webpages organizations

-United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change
-Kyoto Protocol
-Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change
-IPCC 4th assessment report
-Summary for Policy Makers
-ERIM SCR from RSM

Articles and protocols

-Post-2012 Climate Policy Scenario
-Netherlands
-Annual European Community greenhouse gas inventory 1990�2007 and inventory report 2009[1]
-Climate change except by region or country, by IEA
-Post Copenhagen from a geopolitical perspective
-The AWG-LCA n�11 from Aug 2010[2]
-Summary of the above [3]
-EU Commission on trade with China
-[4]
-Attack_on_Iraq
-Operation Enduring Freedom
-War in Afghanistan
-[5]
-[6]
-[7]
-UNFCCC
-IPCC
-Urbanization

Videos

-James Hanson to DTN (confidential therefore not published)
-Smith, Martin; Heat from the U.S.
-Meet the BINGOs
-The Carbon Market Lobby
-The Oil and Coal Lobbies
-The Agriculture Lobby
-The Electricity and Gas Lobbies
-The Alternative Energy Lobby
-Hans Rosling on China
-Hans Rosling on urbanization

Data and graphs

-Carbon history
-Carbon emissions
-Co2 increase
-GHG trends
-GHG trends according to UNFCCC
-List of natural disasters

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